Gunners Shot

  Part 1 – The Military Dimension   Reports have alluded to PLA transgressing the LAC and occupation of locations / heights in violation of  accepted terms of the recent military agreements. One report also claimed that a clash had taken place at Galwan. There have been many reports of PLA build up and preparations in the rear areas including turn around of the formations deployed there. Reports also indicate deployment of S 400 and long-range surface to surface missiles. Further, indications are that their airfields are being improved and runways extended in Tibet besides a new one coming up opposite the Central Sector. All these reports go on to suggest that the PLA is undertaking a massive build up. The India Today cover story by Sandeep Unnithan in its 09 Aug 21 edition has given all this in terrific eye-opening detail.  The larger picture which emerges is that it is suggestive of aggressive designs to attack India again soon. One must see things in the correct perspective and then

I had an interesting chat with Mr Sree Iyer of P Gurus on Afghanistan a while back. I explain the interests of Pakistan and China in Afghanistan and put the withdrawal of USA in the correct perspective in the current situation as it is evolving.    

    Former prime PM Manmohan Singh   recently said   ‘The road ahead is even more daunting than during the 1991 economic crisis and the nation would need to recalibrate its priorities to ensure a dignified life for all Indians’. He also quoted the last lines from Robert Frosts poem ‘Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening’ which say 'But I have promises to keep, and miles to go before I sleep'. Metaphorically speaking it is time to stop by our neck of the woods     to see that they are indeed dark and deep. However they are not really lovely as visualised by Frost. Let us see how dark the woods are.     To put it in perspective in 1991, the crisis was largely economic and internal to India. In 1987, Operation Chequerboard had convinced the Chinese of the capabilities of the Indian Armed Forces. It led to, PM Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China in 1988 to brake the ice  in Sino Indian relations. China was not the adversary it is today. On the other end, Pakistan had been rattled by Opera

  Everyone expects Taliban, supported by Pakistan, which is backed by China to sweep into power in Afghanistan. That is the dark visage floating up. As the US forces are leaving the country , the current momentum and  tempo of the Taliban offensive suggests an inevitability of their return. There is sense of return to the bad old days. There is air of despondency in Indian strategic circles, jubilation in some sections of Pakistan,  and a large sense of trepidation in the rest of the world. From China emanates the smell of greed and a a sense of fear simultaneously. There is an aura of total opacity of what the future holds. However we have to go back into history to understand what can happen in future.   The international geopolitical scene was far different in the days when Taliban rose to  power. One superpower – USSR had been just defeated and was disintegrating. The other superpower – USA just walked away from the region savouring victory in an era of the forthcoming unipolar wor

    The 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party should have been a great celebration of  ‘joie de vivre’ for the Chinese people. There were two shades to it. The media blitz kept promoting the CCP  approved version of China's history. The celebration had great pageantry, pomp and powerful speeches. On one side Xi Jinping  delivered a  speech highlighting the achievements of the nation under the CCP. He harped on the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. He  praised his people for the ‘new world’ they had created. He made a great deal of the ultimate triumph of the communist system over all other forms of government. His speech highlighted the total control of the CCP over China its people and its politics. He also spoke of an ‘unshakeable commitment’ to unification with Taiwan.   On other side  Xi Jinping, dressed in a Mao suit, delivered a combatant speech.  He warned that those who tried to ‘bully, oppress or enslave’ China would ‘crack their heads’ on a ‘Great Wall of ste

Aadi and I discuss the scenarios that are likely to be evolving in Afghanistan. As a result of the evolving scenarios, India has certain strategic interests which it needs to address….

  Th e  report in Business Standard  states that  Chin­ese troops have again crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh at several places and that there has been at least one clash between the two sides on the Galwan River. This was reiterated by the author of the report in a  video interview .   The Indian Army released a statement   refuting  the  report published in the Business Standard. It was a very unambiguous rebuttal. There has been a lot of hue and cry about the whole issue. However I was taken aback at the malfeasance and rhetoric in the social media about the author, his credentials and intent. What I did not see was an analysis to suggest if it was probable that the incident took place or not. That is what I am doing so now from first principles. I will highlight it with an example of my own experience two decades ago.   I had just taken over command of my unit and had moved it to the eastern sector. Our permanent location was in the Siliguri corridor and o

  As the US forces are exiting Afghanistan ahead of their timetable,  the Taliban offensive has gained tempo in the northeast and south of the country.  It is inexorably bringing the country closer to the expected chaos and an impending civil war. Taliban has claimed control of 85% of the country. Some reports suggest it is around 30%. It could be anywhere in between. However, while the Taliban is gaining ground in many places there are also some places where they are being cleared. The situation is fluid. It is also in the news that Pakistani intelligence and terror outfits, Uzbeks, Uighurs and Chechens are in the forefront of fighting alongside the Taliban as they make inroads to expand territorial control in Afghanistan. There is a lot of analysis and prognosis as to what will happen in future. India’s interests and role in the emerging dispensation is also under the lens. Pakistan, it seems, is emerging as the most important layer in Afghanistan today having waited patiently for 20