Gunners Shot

Also published in The Sunday Guardian   The two Ponzis will slow down the Chinese economy and curb its global influence. China will have to find a new economic model to grow. Glitzy real estate and high profile BRI were shining beacons of China. They are now debt fuelled twin Ponzis. At their heyday both were symbols of Chinese growth, wealth and increasing influence in global affairs. As China registered its lowest slowest growth in recent times (which might actually be in the contraction zone), both these Ponzi schemes threaten to pull it further down. A Ponzi scheme works as long as it is accelerating and its circle/chain is widening. The collapse starts when its input feed freezes. As long as China’s economy grew at an astronomical rate, it was all hunky dory.  When the economy slowed, the incoming cash streams fell way short of the increasing arc of cash requirements to sustain these Ponzi schemes.    The First Ponzi – Property    The property sector is about 30% of China’s GDP an

 This live show on P Gurus on the latest situation on the LAC and its co-relationship with China's internal issues and its flagging economy evoked a lot of questions. Need to keep a finger on the LAC and developments around us.   

Also published @ Bharatshakti.in One thing has clearly emerged from this war. Terrain, ground, weather and all other factors might deter, inhibit or preclude employment of Air, Infantry and Armour but very little deters Artillery. The importance and value of Artillery has been reinforced manifold\d in the Ukraine war. The terrain conditions during the Kargil War in the Himalayas were almost similar to the ‘Rasputitsa’ conditions in Ukraine.   ‘It starts with a loud whistle and you feel something fly past. Then comes the explosion, followed by the blast wave. Last is the shrapnel, which swarms through the air like flies: thpht thpht thpht…All you want to do is hide, not breathe, dig deeper in the ground…When a person is shooting at you, you have a clear idea of how to fight back, of where to direct your adrenaline…But when a piece of metal is flying at you, you don’t know where the enemy is and how to survive. I’m a rifleman, I have no weapon to defend myself from that.’  This statement

Aadi and I had a very lively discussion on where Pakistan is headed and the imminence of its collapse. It was a live session with lot of questions. The Q&A session was outstanding.   

Had a live discussion with Mr Sree Iyer on the current state of affairs in Pakistan. The discussion was based largely on my article Wolf at Pakistan's Door . The Q&A session was very interesting.   

I am very happy the Mr Sanjay Dixit invited me for a discussion on Defence Modernisation  on Jaipur Dialogues. It was a first time that I was participating in a show on this subject. It evoked a lot of interest. The Q&A session was also interesting. Lot of questions on Tejas  and aircraft engines. I do hope this subject gets discussed more on such platforms.   

also published @ Financial Express   Also read            https://www.gunnersshot.com/2022/08/the-sick-man-of-south-asia-is.html?m=1                                              HOME WORLD NEWS Pakistan Wolf At The Door Pakistan: Wolf at the door PTIs victory should trigger a domino effect, for fresh elections for which Pakistan and its economy is unready. Imran Khan has already called for immediate elections. The PML-PPP coalition is undeterred and intends to continue. In fact, the PML has formed a committee to determine treasonable offences by the PTI government.  July 21, 2022 2:00:42 pm World Bank has warned Pakistan of macroeconomic instability. (Photo source: Reuters) By Lt Gen P R Shankar (R) PTI’s sweep in the recent Punjab by-polls prompted the media to hail Imran Khanas a genuinely popular leader in Pakistan with grassroot support who has ‘arrived’. PTIs victory should trigger a domino effect, for fresh elections for which Pakistan and its economy is unready. Imran Khan has a

Mr Sree Iyer and I had a lively discussion on the current situation in Sri Lanka. It was a live session on the P Gurus channel.  The Q&A session was specially interesting.    

China is going through tough times economically. In this video Aadi and I discuss various issues concerning the decline in the economic outlook of China as I had outlined in my article Declining Times  the discussion is based on data from Chinese media and is not a figment of our imagination.   

  It has been over 100 days since protests began in Sri Lanka. No significant solutions or answers are in sight. Gotabaya Rajapaksa initially  fled to Maldives and then moved to Singapore. His next destination is unknown and uncertain. All said and done, Sri Lanka is a complicated minefield with no easy answers. Its strategic  location in the IOR brings geopolitical issues to the table. The outcomes in the Island nation are important not only for Sri Lanka but also for China and India. If Hambantota is the oft quoted model of debt trap diplomacy, where and how Sri Lanka goes from here will be a ‘model’ in containing Chinese influence. It will be consequential from many points of view.    Sri Lanka is under emergency. Its politics are boiling and its economy is frozen. People are out on the streets with no effective government in place. The country is likely to face a humanitarian crisis with severe shortages of food, medicine and fuel. For an economic thaw , the political potboiler mus