Gunners Shot

  Part 1 – The Military Dimension Reports have alluded to PLA transgressing the LAC and occupation of locations / heights in violation of accepted terms of the recent military agreements. One report also claimed that a clash had taken place at Galwan. There have been many reports of PLA build up and preparations in the rear areas including turn around of the formations deployed there. Reports also indicate deployment of S 400 and long-range surface to surface missiles. Further, indications are that their airfields are being improved and runways extended in Tibet besides a new one coming up opposite the Central Sector. All these reports go on to suggest that the PLA is undertaking a massive build up. .....Click here for the balance of Part 1...  Part 2 – The Geopolitical Dimension     If you have not read Part 1, PLEASE DO NOT GO AHEAD. Read Part 1 and then proceed. You will get the larger picture……    In Part 1 of this article I had discussed the various aspects of the present Sino Ind

  Part 1 – The Military Dimension   Reports have alluded to PLA transgressing the LAC and occupation of locations / heights in violation of  accepted terms of the recent military agreements. One report also claimed that a clash had taken place at Galwan. There have been many reports of PLA build up and preparations in the rear areas including turn around of the formations deployed there. Reports also indicate deployment of S 400 and long-range surface to surface missiles. Further, indications are that their airfields are being improved and runways extended in Tibet besides a new one coming up opposite the Central Sector. All these reports go on to suggest that the PLA is undertaking a massive build up. The India Today cover story by Sandeep Unnithan in its 09 Aug 21 edition has given all this in terrific eye-opening detail.  The larger picture which emerges is that it is suggestive of aggressive designs to attack India again soon. One must see things in the correct perspective and then

  Th e  report in Business Standard  states that  Chin­ese troops have again crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh at several places and that there has been at least one clash between the two sides on the Galwan River. This was reiterated by the author of the report in a  video interview .   The Indian Army released a statement   refuting  the  report published in the Business Standard. It was a very unambiguous rebuttal. There has been a lot of hue and cry about the whole issue. However I was taken aback at the malfeasance and rhetoric in the social media about the author, his credentials and intent. What I did not see was an analysis to suggest if it was probable that the incident took place or not. That is what I am doing so now from first principles. I will highlight it with an example of my own experience two decades ago.   I had just taken over command of my unit and had moved it to the eastern sector. Our permanent location was in the Siliguri corridor and o

Galwan is a turning point in our history. It was India’s ‘Casabianca’ moment when our boys stood on the burning deck to turn tables. It was that moment in time when India and the world realized that the Chinese can be overcome. It was the N th  coming of the Indian Armed Forces from behind. It ensured that India regained its strategic confidence. Many articles have appeared to commemorate the incident. However, a strange dichotomy has emerged. Most analysts say that India is in a state of asymmetry with PLA which has hung a Damocles sword over Ladakh to tie us down to our Northern Borders at the expense of our maritime interests in the IOR. One detects ‘Strategic Hesitancy’ due to a gross overestimation of Chinese capabilities despite Galwan and its aftermath. We need to understand the strategic gains of Galwan and their implications.  Fact 1 .   In Mar 2020, the  Belfer Centre  analysis stated “ China is regularly operating with a permanent Indian conventional force advantage along it

Please read in conjunction with these earlier articles to get a better overview Sino Indian Logjam : Aim Gone Astray  @ https://www.gunnersshot.com/2021/02/sino-indian-logjam-aim-gone-astray-by.html  and  A Plan to Retake Pak Occupied Kashmir  @  https://www.gunnersshot.com/2019/09/a-plan-to-retake-pak-occupied-kashmir_15.html?m=1 A recent call from Mr Saurabh Kumar, our ex ambassador who consistently gives us rare and valuable insights into Chinese thinking set me thinking. We spoke of many things including the situation in POK.  I told him that I had written an article about it in Sep 2019 wherein I had highlighted that military options into POK were the least preferred. I re-read the article. As I read it, a lot of strategic haze lifted and a new perspective emerged on the Sino Indian Logjam.     Ever since the intrusions in Eastern Ladakh, we have always been wondering as to why China did what it did. What was the Chinese ‘Aim’ ?  Lot of views and reasons were put forth. None have