Gunners Shot

Aadi and I discuss the evolving situation in China as its home grown virus is sweeping across the country and is playing catch up...  

THIS IS A FOLLOW UP ON MY ARTICLE   EVOLVING SECURITY DIMENSIONS IN THE INDO PACIFIC  Also published @ CENJOWS   The Indo US Strategic Partnership has come under some stress due to the differing perceptions on the Russo Ukrainian war. It even led the US President to comment that India was a ‘shaky’ partner. Additionally, many US officials have conveyed that they view India’s ‘neutral’ stance on the Russo Ukrainian war as ‘explicit strategic alignment’ with Russia. They have also indicated there would be long-term consequences as a result of the stance. The overall tone was coercive and threatening. It resulted in a hue and cry in both India and USA. However many of those mis-perceptions were cleared in the 2+2 dialogue held on 11 Apr. Significantly the dialogue was preceded by a virtual meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joseph Biden. The joint statement coming out of the dialogue also indicated a reaffirmation of the partnership and reemphasized the need to co

  Yesterday's attack by Baloch rebels in which three Chinese academics    were killed by a suicide bombing     near the Confucius Institute in Karachi University will trigger many reactions in Pakistan. As per Dawn a new wave of terrorism has been unleashed in the country. Whilst there is widespread condemnation of the incident, its inevitability should not be lost. We should be clear that this might not be the only attack by the Baloch people on the Chinese. It will also not be the only violent activity they will carry out. There have been attacks on security personnel, their camps and other government installations in the area. This will continue. Pakistan will slowly but surely start pointing its finger external forces and eventually at India. However, Pakistan has to look within. Balochistan has a history of grievances and neglect as old as Pakistan itself.     There have been protests and demonstrations against many issues – missing persons, targeted killings, CPEC, exploitati

A discussion with Aadi Achint on the latest situation in Ukraine including the US military aid package and its implications.    

THIS IS FOLLOWED UP BY  A PERSPECTIVE ON INDO US TIES   The Indo Pacific Region is the centre of gravity of international geopolitics and geoeconomics. Major population centres in the region support eight of the top twenty economies of the world. The major conflict areas and disaster zones   lie in the Indo Pacific region. As a corollary, most of the big defence spenders are also in this area. The global pivot of power is steadily shifting back to the Indo Pacific as it was in the precolonial period.    As this power shift is taking place,  global challenges have increased manifold. The underpinning factor of the challenges is the rise of China and its ambitions in relation to other powers. China’s ambition to establish a Sino Centric system is presaged on territorial and geopolitical assertion in its vicinity. On this edifice it has spread its tentacles outwardly through the BRI with an aspiration to cement itself as a superpower second to none. In the process one has seen repeated vi

  Today morning (24 Apr) we woke up early to watch a planetary phenomenon. In the East sky at predawn one can see Jupiter, Venus, Mars, Saturn and Moon all in one graceful arc. Just like the picture above plus the moon! It was a lovely, rare and satisfying sight. It had to be topped with a cup of hot coffee. As we were sipping at our cup I read the customary morning headlines. The first news-app I opened was of South China Morning Post. Its headlines screamed at me.    ‘Urgent and grim’: Beijing on Covid-19 alert after sudden rash of cases   Russia’s struggle to defeat Ukraine ‘a warning’ for China over risks of going to war   Chinese navy shows off new anti-submarine helicopter   How Chinese state media paints an alternative picture of the Ukraine war   Shanghai’s Covid-19 lockdown takes heavy toll on young families   China’s international schools face dire fate if zero-Covid drives away teachers, BritCham warns   Coronavirus: Shanghai’s new cases rebound after five-day decline, with

  Opening Lines : Everyone knows that Pakistan is in turmoil. The Pakistanis also know that they are in turmoil. However this time around it is something else and at a level where Pakistan has not gone before. For the first time there are two army faces on the Pakistani chess board. The other factor is that the Khan is on the fast track to re-elect himself while the others are struggling with everything that Pakistan struggles with. Part of this inswinger is that the system is under the pump. Let us look at it from another viewpoint…irrespective of everything else, we are still talking of Pakistan - Naya or Purana - where chaos is a normal state of mind. After all….  Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose…but then who knows?    As usual I felt the situation in Pakistan is best understood by us when Pakistanis express their own hopes and fears …the thing which caught my attention is that most op-eds  have turned philosophical about the state of affairs in Pakistan… it is like a jilte

 Had a very interesting discussion with Mr Sree Iyer on the evolving situation in Ukraine. The Q&A session was good. 

Pervious Articles on Russo Ukraine War are @  https://www.gunnersshot.com/2022/02/early-gold-standard-non-military_28.html https://www.gunnersshot.com/2022/03/early-military-lessons-from-russo.html https://www.gunnersshot.com/2022/03/nuclear-lesson-from-russo-ukrainian.html https://www.gunnersshot.com/2022/03/follow-up-lessons-from-russo-ukrainian.html https://www.gunnersshot.com/2022/03/russo-ukrainian-crisis-indias-way.html https://www.gunnersshot.com/2022/03/the-lose-lose-equations-of-ukrainian.html https://www.gunnersshot.com/2022/03/blog-post_22.html https://www.gunnersshot.com/2022/04/russo-ukrainian-war-vanquished-victors.html The fifth phase of the Russo Ukraine war commenced on 18 Apr. Various inputs indicate that Russian forces have begun widespread offensive operations in Eastern Ukraine. The stated intent is to capture the Donetsk and Luhansk regions which Russia perceives as regions independent of Ukraine. Ground operations have commenced after two days of systematic pre-p