Gunners Shot

  The Afghanistan Trilogy  The Afghanistan Fallout in Pakistan   The Afghanistan Fallout on China These days  everyone says that Taliban, Pakistan and China are the victors and USA and India the losers in Afghanistan. Things are not so simple. Taliban has won the war but not the peace.  USA has lost this aimless war and wants a quick exit.  While Pakistan, a nation eternally at war,  has won this war to its West,  its real war is with India.  China wants to win all its wars without fighting and rule the world. India is constantly at odds with itself, seldom at peace; and strangely progressing despite the chaos. However if war is thrust on India, it will not baulk. Pakistan will do well to remember that, after having instigated  four rounds of war with India. The fifth might be its last as Pakistan. It is in this context  that we  need to examine the Afghanistan fallout on India and its options thereof.    The Afghanistan fallout on India is not direct but through Pakistan, China or bot

The Afghanistan Trilogy  The Afghanistan Fallout in Pakistan  The Afghanistan Fallout on India    Between two brothers it is brother vs brother. If the cousin is around. It is brother plus brother vs the cousin. If an outsider is around. It is the brother plus brother plus cousin vs the outsider. When the outsider is vanquished It is back to brothers vs the cousin. When the cousin is vanquished It back to brother vs brother . This is a tribal reality     The hasty withdrawal of mighty America in the face of a stunning advance of ragtag Taliban relying on Mao’s  guerrilla tactics gave China a propaganda coup. America was made out to be unreliable, selfish and untrustworthy.  Chinese influence operations ensured that images of Afghans left in the lurch at Kabul airport went viral in Europe and Asia. The general expectation now, is that, China the superpower in waiting, will parachute into the void in Afghanistan, with the help of its (rusted) iron brother Pakistan. For the past five year

Lt Gen Satish Dua, Aadi and I had a very interesting discussion on the Afghanistan situation as it is unravelling. We discussed the interests of all stake holders in Afghanistan and where do they stand. We also addressed the oft repeated apprehension that the next big armed struggle with all the Jihadis will be in Kashmir. Prior to this edition of Generals Talk, I had written two articles on the evolving situation in Afghanistan and its likely fallout on Pakistan . Then links for these articles are below, Click on the title to access the article.   I had also moderated a CASA webinar on Afghanistan Dialogues wherein we had great speakers who had intimate knowledge of Afghanistan expounding their views on Afghanistan's future from a diplomatic, political, economic and ground up view.  All these are great learning for any student of geopolitical and strategic affairs as also for anyone who is taking a keen interest in Afghan affairs.  The next article will be about the Afghan Fallout

Prof Shen, Namrata Hasija, Aadi and I had a very interesting dialogue on the Indo - Taiwanese relationship in the context of dealing with our common adversary - China. I t was an important dialogue for me. It vastly expanded my understanding of China. Major points which flowed from this dialogue were :-   1. Understanding the internal politics and compulsions of China is very important while dealing with China. There is always an overriding political overtone in Chinese military actions. That was evident in Eastern Ladakh. Many of us failed to decipher it.    2. The CCP is neither a monolith nor is it a system where Xi Jinping's word is law. They have different factions. Each of them vie for power. Xi Jinping has to strive to stay in power. Understanding the nuances at play is important to assess Chinese military intentions. Due to these internal power plays, China's ability to take risk beyond a point is limited.    3. Prof Shen made a very important point. ONLY AN IDIOT WILL

This is a discussion with Aadi based on my earlier article China : A Superpower Not to Be . We discuss all reasons as to why China will not be a superpower.  More importantly we discuss what the opportunities for India are.      

  The Afghanistan Trilogy The Afghanistan Fallout on China    The Afghanistan Fallout on India    This article is a follow up on my earlier article  The Sum of Pakistani Wishes ( https://www.gunnersshot.com/2021/08/the-sum-of-pakistani-wishes-by-lt-gen-p.html  )     An  article by Abbas Nasir  in Dawn states that  ‘Pakistan was concerned of being ‘ scapegoated ’ and being isolated, for giving sanctuary to the Taliban leadership and fighters... There is no escaping that blame…. Yes, Pakistan was duplicitous inasmuch as the Taliban were concerned… ’.  This is the closest one will get to a Pakistani admission of guilt for its double crossing role in Afghanistan. At the other end of the spectrum, Imran ‘Taliban’ Khan feels that Afghanistan has broken the  shackles of slavery . Last year, he called Osama Bin Laden a martyr in a speech to the Parliament. His cabinet minister talks of civilised Taliban. There is widespread euphoria in Pakistan on the swift Taliban victory,  hasty US withdrawa