Gunners Shot

Part 1 - The Preamble to the Wobble  If you have not read the first part please read it before proceeding further. it will enable you to understand the context of this article from the larger perspective. .    click here for Part 1 Part 2- The Cobbles in the Wobble   China has once again banned all crypto transactions and crypto mining, hitting bitcoin and other major coins.  This is yet another ban since 2019, in one of the world's largest crypto-currency markets. The difference this time seems to be the extent of involvement of all state agencies. The official statement is that the current ban is a resolute  clamp down on virtual currency speculation, and related financial activities and misbehaviour in order to safeguard people's properties and maintain economic, financial and social order. The reaction in social media is that ‘there is a degree of panic in the air’. Is the Government preparing the political ground for the fall of Evergrande and its ensu...

 Part 1- The Preamble to the Wobble Last year China was seen to be displacing USA as the undisputed global power.  It was the only large economy booming during the pandemic. It had declared victory over the Virus.  Militarily it was threatening against India and assertive in the South China Sea was. Hong Kong was swallowed into One China. Chinese Wolf Warriors were baying from all capitals. The Yuan was staking to be the reserve currency of Mother Earth. Xi Jinping was stridently proclaiming preponement of all timelines for ‘Rejuvenation of the Chinese Dream’ aka ‘Superpower Status’. The world seemed to be a Chinese oyster. We prepared to live with Super Power China as USA seemed to be declining. In the past Xi Jinping wore a suit and tie as against the Mao coat he is seen wearing these days. His talks are all about ‘Common Prosperity’ offlate. The news is all about Chinese crackdown/bailouts  on Fin Tech, Ed Tech, Real Estate, Entertainment , Gaming, ...

Last year around this time, everyone in India was wondering if the Chinese would recommence their offensives this summer. The summer has come and gone. There has been no indication of any Chinese offensive intent. However, with the news filtering  out that the Chinese have changed their Commander of WTC for the fourth time and that they are carrying out a large number of exercises, there is speculation in the air. The question is that whether the Chinese will take advantage of the situation in Afghanistan to once again attempt an incursion along the LAC to settle issues in their favour. In this context Aadi and I had a great discussion to examine whether China will undertake an offensive in the midst of the evolving situation in Afghanistan.  The complexities  involved are huge and the risks of success and failure are equally great. The question is will China take the risk to do so ?      

This is a discussion with Aadi based on my earlier article China : A Superpower Not to Be . We discuss all reasons as to why China will not be a superpower.  More importantly we discuss what the opportunities for India are.      

Let me start by putting the  cart before the horse. Rising China is already an economic superpower. It is flexing diplomatic, technological and military muscles to be the next all-round superpower as analyses about a declining USA abound. However, China itself is  declining. A couple of years back when people spoke of this decline, they were pooh pooed. China was expected to overcome its hurdles effortlessly to become a superpower. When the Chinese Virus broke, everyone seemed crippled against its onslaught. China went from strength to strength. It virtually rewrote the world order and rules as per its aggressive writ. China was a step away from being a superpower. Then subtle changes started.  Demography and the virus turned the tide. Analysts are now  writing  that China has peaked. If China has peaked it will not be a superpower. That is my considered opinion. It is based on an overview of the canvas which has been unfolding in front of all...

In this video, Aadi and I discuss various hues of the China Pakistan nexus. We trace this nexus from its roots and analyse as to why two ideologically opposite nations have gone to great lengths to forge a relationship. We also analyse this relationship in contemporary times and examine as to how it will affect India. We also analyse the collusivity factor against India.    

    The 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party should have been a great celebration of  ‘joie de vivre’ for the Chinese people. There were two shades to it. The media blitz kept promoting the CCP  approved version of China's history. The celebration had great pageantry, pomp and powerful speeches. On one side Xi Jinping  delivered a  speech highlighting the achievements of the nation under the CCP. He harped on the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. He  praised his people for the ‘new world’ they had created. He made a great deal of the ultimate triumph of the communist system over all other forms of government. His speech highlighted the total control of the CCP over China its people and its politics. He also spoke of an ‘unshakeable commitment’ to unification with Taiwan.   On other side  Xi Jinping, dressed in a Mao suit, delivered a combatant speech.  He warned that those who tried to ‘bully, ...