Gunners Shot

China is changing and changing fast. The change is revisionist in nature with a back to basics approach, driven by demographics and ambition - individual and collective. The entire exercise makes China more militaristic and aggressive than before. It is in this context that Aadi and I have embarked on a three part discussion to examine the new reality of China. In this part we discuss the economics of the reality of China where dark clouds seem to be on the horizon.   

After a long time, Mr Sree Iyer of P Gurus and I had a very interesting talk on a few regional issues. The good part was that it was a live show where we could interact with the auidence. We started with Imran Khan and Taliban, drifted to Afghanistan and ended up with Bangladesh. The range was wide and we spoke of certain contemporary realities. The questions were good at the end. I enjoyed the discussion. Hope you do .  

Aadi Achint and I had a discussion on India's neighbourhood. What came out of the discussion is that while we need to be focussed on Afghanistan, Pakistan and China, the situation in Sri Lanka and Myanmar is fragile and unsettled. We need to do more to reach out to these nations to help them stabilise.   This episode is thanks to my course mate Lt Gen Raman Dhawan (retd) who reminded me that I have been focussing too much to the West and that India faces major problems in the South and East also. We need to be balanced and focus more all around. We can not afford to lose focus in areas which matter to us. That is why the focus on Sri Lanka and Myanmar in this episode of Neighbourhood Watch.                              

Background   The priority task of PLA is capturing Taiwan and reunification  with China.  Xi Jinping keeps  vowing   to pursue  "reunification" with Taiwan  by peaceful means. However China keeps carrying out massive air violations into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone. It also carries out  amphibious exercises   to capture Island territories. It is a typical two faced Chinese mutt(yin) and jeff (yang)strategy. Analyses indicate that by around  2025 , China will have full spectrum capability to capture Taiwan. The current revisionism and the internal power struggle in China might force it to  externalise the situation and  attempt to conquer Taiwan earlier. The mere mention of Taiwan gets China goat. What are the implications of Taiwan being taken over by China? Will China succeed ? What are the options? These are some questions which need understanding. At the outset, remember that everything in China is political.  Besides the political, there are also  strategic an

        Have you ever wondered why the Imran Khan, the PM of Pakistan is called Taliban Khan?  Well the answers are there in all the cartoons drawn by Pakistanis. However  if pictures have not conveyed the truth, read the excerpts from articles written by Pakistanis themselves.  Very clearly Imran Khan is made from a different metal in which Taliban is a large ingredient. More importantly, these articles implicate his role and that of Pakistan in hoisting Taliban into power in Afghanistan.    Appeasing Butchers by Usama Khilji @   https://www.dawn.com/news/1650035/appeasing-butchers   THE prime minister in a TV interview has  said  that the government is trying to negotiate a peace deal with the TTP wherein they will lay down arms and become “normal citizens”. He has also called recent TTP attacks on Pakistani soldiers “just a spate of attacks”.   Clearly, the life of Pakistani citizens is not worth much to the PM who has continued to advocate for negotiations with terrorist groups — P

Articles which substantiate this analysis Current Revisionism in China  The Chinese Wobble  China is bellicose and militaristic  towards India and Taiwan. The hurry to usurp Taiwan is  palpable.  Massive air violations and amphibious exercises. Xi Jinping’s  speech on the eve of the Taiwanese National Day, exhorted it to peacefully unite with the motherland or else…  Even a time line is being discussed for its conquest based on assessed PLA capability - 2025. Once Taiwan is conquered, mainland China is militarily untouchable, it gets unfettered access to blue waters to ascend the superpower pedestal. It also lays hands on elusive semiconductor technology. Against India -  border violations, firepower displays  and tank drills near the LAC. Its stone walling in military talks reveals a persistent belligerence. All to subdue India. Subduing India militarily ensures that its long term competitor is kept down and its territorial integrity is protected especially in Tibet and Xinjiang. All

  The Indian geostrategic palate is a mixed bag. Our neighbourhood is in turmoil. Our traditional adversaries are getting back to their old tricks. We have just started seeing green shoots of recovery in our external environment. However, internally,  we also keep jumping from one crisis to another. Our strategic partners – past and present seem to have reservations  about us in perpetuity.  Most importantly we have once again started entertaining thoughts about a bigger say in  global affairs. At this juncture it is relevant that we get the whole picture rather than viewing things piecemeal from one event to another.    China is going through a  revisionist phase  where its economy is flattening but its militarism is increasing predictably and visibly. After having usurped Hong Kong and taken virtual control of the South China Sea,  it has turned its focus on Taiwan. Increasing air violations indicate that the next objective of its  unfinished agenda is Taiwan. Their other active area