A discussion with Aadi Achint on the latest situation in Ukraine including the US military aid package and its implications.
‘Sir, will China invade us?’ ‘We hear China has increased activities on the border’. Chinese consolidation activities on the LAC have prompted such reactions and fears. Lot of such inquiries from citizens within and outside India. Why? Bodies floating down Ganga, mass graves, lack of oxygen, medicines or hospital beds, botched vaccination program, uninterrupted work on Central Vista - all these have eroded our political capital immensely and seeded such doubts. Our national institutions are being compared to ‘rottweilers’ in the media. Economy? Unemployment figures and stock markets – both rattling up. Strangest combination. Rich getting richer and poor getting poorer. An ominous divergence which bodes ill. Leadership? Kis Chidiya ka naam hai bhai? National level paralysis in responding to the second wave. Erosion in comprehensive national power. Many have never experienced India being so weak. Nor did I for that matter. This frightening experience ...
I think India needs to stay out of this unless both sides ask. Maybe Russia will just consolidate its gains with the most productive areas under its control and use rest of UKR as practice/proving ground via a low intensity conflict for its new weaponry and fresh troops. This will also bleed Europe & US as they will need to compensate UKR disproportionately with economic and military aid to keep it alive as well as supporting the millions of refugees. Interesting, though sad, times ahead for sure.
ReplyDeleteIt wouldn't be surprising if the US & EU use pre-occupation with UKR and commitment to providing arms & aid to it as an excuse to back-away from Taiwan if the CCP comes a visiting this year.
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