Gunners Shot

Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan (R) brings his personal experiential knowledge when analysing India Bangladesh Relations. He presents a different perspective of looking at how things are likely to evolve in Bangladesh and how we need to handle the situation. A normal approach will not work. Need to use our politico-economic-cultural-diplomatic leverages to handle Bangladesh which is yet again entering into another torturous phase of its turbulent existence. The internal security grid in areas bordering Bangladesh needs to be tightened to prevent a spill over/ infusion of unwanted hybrid strains emanating from ISI. 

#ChineseNarratives Three narratives are uncovered in this episode. 1. #Chinese #PopulationDecline is stabilising 2. The #Economy is on the mend 3. Under the #CCP , China is a safe and secure place.

#IndiaIndonesia vibes are good explains @AmbGurjitSingh . However we have not developed eco or def ties as needed. More needs to be done. Need to convert the India Indonesia relations from 'Kuch Kuch Hota Hai' to 'Bahut Kuch Hota Hai'.

Despite the bluster the Trump Effect is being felt. Many of his orders are internal to USA but have huge external ramifications on immigration, citizenship, climate change etc. All these and more in this nice discussion with @Sanjay_Dixit

China is very clearly adopting a strategy of indirect approach as propounded by Sir Liddel Hart to contain India. Having failed to enforce a military solution on India for the past four years and seeing the threats developing on its other fronts combined with internal difficulties, China is using Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka to get at India. It is also attempting to dilute the India USA partnership and use Russia to pressurise India. Over and above this it is weaponising trade, technology, water and legal issues to keep up the pressure on India. The Chinese view is that   India is undoubtedly the most promising country in this century, except for China and the United States .  Germany, Japan, Britain, France and South Korea have reached their peak. Russia has a shortage of population .  Brazil and South Africa are not enterprising .  Other countries are not enough to become a world power in terms of resources and population.   India, which...

Col Rajeev Agarwal spelt out in detail as to where West Asia is headed. He brought out very important facts and connected them into the Middle East Jigsaw. The situation in the Middle East is that it is in for a period of relative calm since the Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are significantly weakened. However that does not mean peace. While the elusive peace is a mirage, this time is best to forge ahead with economic and trade linkages in the hope they will douse the fires that will come up ahead. 

This is a mirror to all Bangladeshis to remind them of what happened 54 years back. I have done this 'off beat' video since there are a lot of narratives from Bangladesh and its new found friends (who once raped it) that :-  1. What happened in 1971 is all fake. It is Indian propaganda.  2. India invaded East Pakistan to settle its enmity with that country. It had nothing to do with Bangladesh.  3. It was Bangladesh which defeated Pakistan and not Indian Army!  4. India has been exploiting Bangladesh since 1970!.  5.Hindus being targeted in Bangladesh is a media creation. Incidentally Pakistan did so in 1971 and denied it then also.  6. 1971 was not a war of liberation . The real liberation is now!  7. The new friends of Bangladesh are indeed its old enemies. Its old friend is its new enemy! 

ROAR OT THE TRUMPET. Initial analysis. A lot of internal focus with huge external repercussions. The question and poser - the world will have to adjust to a more inward looking USA than an intrusive one. Creates its own issues.

Great discussion with @brigarunsahgal . International trends indicate #StrategicDecline of big powers which are ALL internally constrained & struggling to retain influence. As new tech & structures emerge what it is #India seeking?

The GAZA CEASEFIRE has gone into effect. What are its outlines? What has it meant for all the nations and actors since Operation Al Aqsa started? What next? Some initial thoughts.

Lt Gen D P Pandey (R) and I discussed how narratives in conflict are spun. It is now common to generate narratives in line with political and military goals by all nations. These narratives shape public opinion before , during and after the conflict. Historically, India has been poor at generating or maintaining a narrative which satisfies its own public leave alone international opinion. The Armed Forces have specially been inept in building public opinion on their capabilities or action. It has placed them at a great disadvantage historically. This is strange considering that the Indian Armed Forces are the most trusted of institutions in the country. There is necessity for introspection and doing a lot about it.

#Technology is changing at pace as #AI swamps our systems, nature of war and conflict is changing, India has set off a year of reforms in #MOD, #IntegratedTheatreCommands are being ushered in and #IndiaIsRising. A #VikisitBharat is impossible without a #SurakshitBharat. In the light of these developments, Lt Gen Raj Shukla and I discussed in detail the reforms needed in MOD - structurally, financially, technologically. While the need for change is well understood, the attitude seems to be - I WILL NOT CHANGE...RATHER I DO NOT NEED CHANGE...IT IS ONLY THR OTHER MAN WHO NEEDS CHANGE...a sort of I AM OK YOU ARE NOT OK KIND OF A SYNDROME! The biggest reform challenge in MOD will be attitudinal in nature. Can our unique Politico-Bureaucratic-Military compact rise up to the challenge?

INDIA'S HYPERSONIC TEST An initial analysis. look out for my interviews on INDIA TODAY with @MattooShashank & NEWS NINE PLUS with @SandeepUnnithan . Will do an in-depth analysis on "Hypersonic Shock to China" on Gunners Shot on 20 Nov.

The CASA webinar on the US Presidential elections and its implications for India was interesting. The discussion with Lt Gen Gautam Moorthy, Ambassador Gurjit Singh and Prof Michael Rubin was frank and free. It emerges that the 'unknown' Harris could sandpaper the India US strategic partnership with human rights issues and centerstage fringe activism on Khalistan and Kashmir while the 'known' Trump will rub us hard on trade and a higher level of cooperation. India's handling of Trump 1.0 will stand it in good stead going ahead. One issue we need to remember - Kamala 'Chitti' is not an Indian candidate for the US presidency. Her Indian ancestry will make her behave more 'American' than normal Americans. India has the band width to deal with either and is already putting in place the blocks on which to steer the listing India US strategic partnership back to safe shores. https://www.youtube.com/live/QAYQ0k5-OVc  

Published in the  Eurasian Times  @  https://www.eurasiantimes.com/ncb-aging-population-low-child-births-inevitable-communist/ It is now a well-established fact that China’s declining demography is a cause for concern. I was therefore reading up on the subject when I came across the graph below which  indicates China’s population aged over 65. It caught my attention since it resembled a typical run rate graph in limited overs cricket where the scoring rates in the slog overs become steep. The thought which came to my mind is that China seems to have entered the slog overs in its demographic decline. The normal thinking is that China with its ‘great leaps’ in technology, military and economy under the able leadership of Xi Jinping and his hyper enthusiastic band of communist apparatchiks will tackle the problem with their customary efficiency and zeal to march onward to a Tianxia. However they will not. Simply because they cannot.  In fact they might be...

This is an overview of the rescue operations of trapped workers in the Silkyara tunnel near Uttarkashi. The workers have been trapped for 9 days as of today. 

The picture of the Chinese economy is full of gloom. While it might not be a doom it is definitely clear that the boom is over. That’s what the dataset of October tells us. That is what I have presented in this episode.

In this joint episode with P Gurus, I have outlined the Rise of India and why it is unstoppable. What is to be done going ahead and the problems it is going to face in its rise have also been highlighted. 

The discussion with @kayjay34350 on THE SILIGURI CORRIDOR was simply fantastic. Many issues emerged. The chicken neck is very strong. If Chinese enter it they will not go back alive. Must watch.  https://www.youtube.com/live/4Z96sY2Wn2Y?feature=share via @YouTube @gunners_shot1