Gunners Shot

This is an interesting discussion with Aadi on Pakistan and its Taliban.  The discussion is largely based on an earlier article written by me - The Sum of Pakistani Wishes    

I had an interesting chat with Mr Sree Iyer of P Gurus on Afghanistan a while back. I explain the interests of Pakistan and China in Afghanistan and put the withdrawal of USA in the correct perspective in the current situation as it is evolving.    

  Everyone expects Taliban, supported by Pakistan, which is backed by China to sweep into power in Afghanistan. That is the dark visage floating up. As the US forces are leaving the country , the current momentum and  tempo of the Taliban offensive suggests an inevitability of their return. There is sense of return to the bad old days. There is air of despondency in Indian strategic circles, jubilation in some sections of Pakistan,  and a large sense of trepidation in the rest of the world. From China emanates the smell of greed and a a sense of fear simultaneously. There is an aura of total opacity of what the future holds. However we have to go back into history to understand what can happen in future.   The international geopolitical scene was far different in the days when Taliban rose to  power. One superpower – USSR had been just defeated and was disintegrating. The other superpower – USA just walked away from the region savouring victory in an era of the forthcoming unipolar wor

Aadi and I discuss the scenarios that are likely to be evolving in Afghanistan. As a result of the evolving scenarios, India has certain strategic interests which it needs to address….

  As the US forces are exiting Afghanistan ahead of their timetable,  the Taliban offensive has gained tempo in the northeast and south of the country.  It is inexorably bringing the country closer to the expected chaos and an impending civil war. Taliban has claimed control of 85% of the country. Some reports suggest it is around 30%. It could be anywhere in between. However, while the Taliban is gaining ground in many places there are also some places where they are being cleared. The situation is fluid. It is also in the news that Pakistani intelligence and terror outfits, Uzbeks, Uighurs and Chechens are in the forefront of fighting alongside the Taliban as they make inroads to expand territorial control in Afghanistan. There is a lot of analysis and prognosis as to what will happen in future. India’s interests and role in the emerging dispensation is also under the lens. Pakistan, it seems, is emerging as the most important layer in Afghanistan today having waited patiently for 20

In this edition of 'The Generals Talk', Lt Gen Satish Dua and I discuss the emerging situation in Afghanistan with Aadi Achint. The situation in Afghanistan is set to go into uncharted territory once USA exits from there. There will be many internal and external interest groups which will come into play. We have made an effort to identify the interest groups and how the situation is likely to evolve in future. We have also identified Indian interests and how to protect them in the dispensation post US exit from Afghanistan.      

  ‘ Come September’ was a famous blockbuster tune of the 1960’s. What will be the tune ‘Come September’ in Afghanistan? Current Status   On 01 Jun, some violent incidents occurred in Afghanistan (as marked on the map). Such violence  routinely happen on any given day in the country. Give or take a few. Daily life in Afghanistan is hardly normal. Come September, the US troops will fly out of Afghanistan and leave it to its destiny. A new deck of cards will appear on the table. A new set of players in a new game. Everyone is cognizant of this and are preparing themselves for it. There is no one more aware of this than the Afghanis themselves.  With about two months left for the drawdown,  the Taliban and the Afghan government,  the main internal actors on stage, have started talks in Doha to reach an agreement. They might reach one for the present or not. However, given the fundamental differences in each other’s outlooks, any agreement will at best be fragile with a very high chance of