Had a live discussion with Mr Sree Iyer on the current state of affairs in Pakistan. The discussion was based largely on my article Wolf at Pakistan's Door. The Q&A session was very interesting.
‘Sir, will China invade us?’ ‘We hear China has increased activities on the border’. Chinese consolidation activities on the LAC have prompted such reactions and fears. Lot of such inquiries from citizens within and outside India. Why? Bodies floating down Ganga, mass graves, lack of oxygen, medicines or hospital beds, botched vaccination program, uninterrupted work on Central Vista - all these have eroded our political capital immensely and seeded such doubts. Our national institutions are being compared to ‘rottweilers’ in the media. Economy? Unemployment figures and stock markets – both rattling up. Strangest combination. Rich getting richer and poor getting poorer. An ominous divergence which bodes ill. Leadership? Kis Chidiya ka naam hai bhai? National level paralysis in responding to the second wave. Erosion in comprehensive national power. Many have never experienced India being so weak. Nor did I for that matter. This frightening experience ...
I think Pakistan will focus on one thing to get its economy out of bankruptcy. It will export workers. On a per capita basis, Pakistan already has among the highest rates in the world of sending abroad laborers. The key for Pakistan is then to find places that will receive the workers. The answer is obviously GCC countries where it will find vacancies for Pakistani workers at the expense of Indian workers. There are 8.5 million Indians living and working in GCC countries. If half of the Indians in GCC countries do not get their visas renewed then 4 million Pakistanis will be able to move to the GCC and send back remittances to save the Pakistani economy.
ReplyDeleteFor Pakistan to pull this off they will need to switch gears in international messaging. Instead of talking about human rights abuses in the Kashmir Valley to Arab countries who don't care because Kashmiris are not Arabs, Pakistan will move on to making loud noises about the BJP and Indian government blasphemizing against Islam and the Prophet Muhammad. Nupur Sharma will still be around so it will not be hard to pin blasphemy on Modi and India. The Western media is also giving the Pakistanis fire support.
Thats a great analysis!
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