This is a follow up on my earlier article @ https://palepurshankar.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-road-beyond-370-by-lt-gen-p-r.html
The Views Across
Abrogation
of Article 370 and associated actions have given us tremendous initiative and has
shocked Pakistani thinkers and establishment. The rug has been pulled from
under their feet. For Pakistan the issue is not Kashmir. It is about Pakistani
revenge on India in which Kashmir and its people are only pawns. Their
reactions and views, though predictably anti India and pro Pakistan/ Kashmir are balanced and realistic to their situation as they see it. There
is unanimity on issues..... Pakistan is facing one of its toughest challenges which it
will find hard to meet if it remains stuck in its traditional mode of thinking
on Kashmir.... Pakistani options are limited.... War is no option.... Promoting Jihad
could ensure that the FATF sword falls on them.... The economy is in distress zone....
No one is waiting with garlands in UNSC
for the Pakistani complaint. But... If it had been USA or China which had done
this to them, they would have reconciled or rationalized about it. They might have even kept quiet like they are - over treatment of Muslims in Xinjang. However, in their perception… since it
is Modi, it is Hindutva and it is India who have dealt a body blow to Pakistan,
it is unacceptable and must be revenged. Make no mistake. The convoluted psyche
of Pakistan will not permit them to sit back and watch India walk away with the
cake. Pakistan is an inventive nation in such matters. We must therefore prepare
for the unexpected. Pakistan will generate options and put them into play, even
if they are suicidal.
Indian Analysis
Most Indian
analyses touch on all the above issues and opine that we must focus on the
people, provide a healing touch, close out Pakistani actions, generate
political solutions, maintain security etc. All that is fine. However, our actions while
promoting our line of thought should endeavor to stymie the Pakistani lines of
action and keep them off balance. The abrogation
of Article 370 has complicated the ground situation. The middle ground could
literally vanish. We still must tackle the external dimension from Pakistan and
the internal one from a section of people in the Valley; a generation of which
will never reconcile to the change. However, I am presently focusing on the external
Pakistan driven dimension and how will we have to deal with it? As I write this,
Pakistan is enacting some of these lines of action.
The Lines of Action
The
external dimensions are surprisingly well laid out by Pakistani thinkers and
opinion makers. The lines of action which are to be expected from Pakistan have
been culled out from opinion pieces and are reproduced as quotes below. The references from Pakistan are at the end for further detailed reading. There would
be more complimentary lines of action opening as days progress and the
situation evolves. I have no doubt. However, ignoring these lines of Pakistani
action will deprive us of the initiative and shift the balance back to the
other side of the LOC.
Centre Of Gravity.
“the centre of gravity of our national
power lies in our armed forces”
There is no doubt the Deep State is the Centre Of
Gravity of Pakistan. Attack it and discredit it before it undertakes any
maverick action. A major line of action should be to show to Pakistan that its
Army was incapable of protecting its core values when the time came. All our actions
must focus on the impact which they will have on the Deep State.
LOC.
“difficult to keep the escalation of tension at the LoC and
Working Boundary to manageable levels”
We
must expect an active LOC. Infiltration will increase. A preemptive and provacative action should be expected at the
LOC to raise the stakes. Pakistan will endeavor to provoke us in a manner to force
us to initiate military action and then go to the world proclaiming that India
is attacking them. Such hype is already been put into motion. Strengthen the
LOC, stand firm and inflict damage on Pakistan through non-contact warfare. That should be our main line of action.
Strategic Patience.
“all Pakistan must do is exercise
“strategic patience”
The emerging new Pakistani mantra is ‘Strategic Patience’. The view
is that Pakistan should not blunder into a situation but bide time and wait for its
opportunity. The opportunity will present itself sooner than
later. The perception is that India can occupy Kashmir but cannot break its
people. The struggle will force a misstep from India and the next Burhan Wani will
arrive. For that to happen create a situation or precipitate one so that Kashmir
is in flames. That is what we need to look out for - Icons. Identify and destroy icons before they are
formed. In my opinion “strategic patience” can defeated by “tactical
restraint”. Tactical restraint must
be thoroughly debated and practiced by everyone at all levels as a ‘whole of the
nation’ approach. Do not get provoked. Do not lose your cool or nerve.
Nuclear Card.
“the only reason there is any concern over the issue is the
fact that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers”
Pakistan will play the nuclear card shamelessly and
with out remorse. Its idea will be to precipitate a situation, force Indian military
action and play the nuclear card at the drop of the hat. Their PM has already
adopted this line – talking of war and Indian military offensive hype. The thinking is that international attention
and opinion will weigh in better when the nuclear card is on the table. It is
not new ; however, the difference is that the calls will be shrill. Prepare for heightened nuclear blackmail. Our line should be to allow
Pakistan to keep crying for wolf till the international community gets fed up. Long Term Goal – think as to how we can defang Pakistan.
The New Intifada.
“the dynamics of the insurgency in India-held Kashmir will
be different this time. another intifada is on the cards in Kashmir”
Insurgency in Kashmir and some parts of Jammu will
increase initially and thereafter to reduce and linger for some time. Already the street level
activism is modelled on the Intifada tactics - stone pelting, women crowding
and abuse, refusal to carry out last rites et al. This time around things will
be different. Why? The FATF sword on Pakistan will inhibit direct support and
involvement. With established separatist leadership virtually taken out of the
equation a lot of coordination, communication and funding will be missing. Hence
the new Intifada (as it is being called) will be uncoordinated and probably
sporadic due to lack of established leadership and probably less violent. We should
expect a lot of nonviolent actions and protests. The pro-independent,
pro-Pakistan and ultra-radical segments who would have gone underground will regroup
to form an organization and then resort to coordinated violent actions to
enhance the nonviolent activism. All in all, we must expect a new Intifada
which will also encompass activation of sleeper cells, playing the Indian
Muslim Card, exploiting sympathetic political opposition to the Government etc. Countering this new challenge will involve building political consensus - within the Valley and out of it. This will be a critical factor as we go along.
Alienation.
“the use of terms like ‘reintegration’ and ‘mainstreaming’
by india’s policymakers and political circles suggest they consider the entire
ihk population to be radical. determination of the kashmiri people to thwart
demographic change”
Pakistan’s constant attempt will be to keep Kashmiris
in a permanent state of alienation. Every trick up their sleeve will be used for
this line of action. The immediate action which Pakistan will take is to ensure
that the moderates who dominated the middle ground walk over to the other side
and start crying separation / alienation etc. The idea would be to widen the
disaffected pool. Impending demographic change to swamp and drown the Kashmiri
identity is a theme which will be played to enhance disaffection. There will be
clear attempts to enhance radicalization. All these must be countered politically,
religiously, educationally and most importantly - sensitively. Simultaneously a
psywar campaign must start to discredit the Pakistani onslaught. Also, we need
to take care as to how we treat our population. Not all are radical. Broad paint
brushing a section of people is dangerous. There must be a well thought out plan
on these emotional and sensitive issues.
Non- State Actors.
“non-state actors are also closely monitoring the situation and
exploring the spaces to exploit. Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind,
an affiliate of Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent is making inroads into the
ultra-radical militant movements in Kashmir. The group is trying to convince
other armed groups to form an independent jihad alliance against India.”
Non-state
actors and trained fighters will be surplus to the situation once some deal is
arrived at in Afghanistan. Without any doubt, they will be diverted into
Kashmir. We must expect a new Non-State actor to emerge who can not
be traced back to the Deep State or Pakistan. It could have roots in ISIS,
Taliban, Al Qaida etc. It will not be funded by Pakistan upfront. The Deep
State will ensure that the situation in Kashmir is portrayed as an international
Jihad in which they have no role to play since they have cleaned up their stables
as per FATF wishes and scrutiny. They could even create the new Osama Bin Laden for
this situation. Diplomacy and intelligence must be on board to sort this out
externally and our security forces must sort things out on ground internally.
Diaspora Activity.
“kashmiri diaspora in the UK and the US has a critical role
to play to take the case to every human rights forum”
Pakistan will create,
fund and enhance a high decibel and voluble Kashmir Diaspora. This diaspora
will be used without any second thought to make maximum noise and furor at
every international forum. Not a new phenomenon but it will now be in an
enhanced avatar.
Vulnerabilities
As much as the Pakistani writers have virtually
outlined their option and lines of action, there are some vulnerabilities which
they have expressed which we need to exploit. They feel that “the reality
is that as a nation, we need to be more cautious and protective of what we have”. Hence
those which have come up in their writings are outlined in
succeeding paragraphs.
Pakistani Expectation.
Pakistan faces two
distinct dangers: direct intervention in Azad Jammu and Kashmir or Gilgit and Baltistan
or subversion in these territories and inside Pakistan.
Pakistanis expect that India will
interfere in Baluchistan, Gilgit and Baltistan and POK. They are worried about
the internal situation there. Add the vulnerability of CPEC infrastructure to
this. Half of Pakistan becomes vulnerable and can be brought to heel very fast.
Whether we do so or not, we must reinforce this view and not disappoint them. We must do things in a calibrated
manner and force Pakistan to look inwards constantly. The threat should be
potent, constant and credible.
Kashmir Fatigue.
“our politicians have no idea of the degree of Kashmir fatigue”
That there is a Kashmiri fatigue is very clear. The fact
that every insurgency has a life cycle is well established. Under normal conditions
the insurgency in Kashmir is well past its fatigue and life cycle stage. It is
only Pakistani pumping in oxygen which has kept the fire burning. If that is
cut off, the fire should die down. Our operational planners should evolve an action
plan to exploit the fatigue which will set in after the initial outburst.
The Continuum Factor.
“Pakistan has focused on internationalizing the Kashmir
issue, while India exploits the militancy aspect.”
The differing approaches to this problem will
continue and harden since both countries are on different trajectories. India
on a high growth path and Pakistan inching towards failure. As the divergence between
the countries increases this factor will reinforce itself. However, we will
have to reinvent our line of approach with the new and changed circumstances.
Conclusion
It was the Duke of Wellington who
famously said, “the whole art of war is guessing what is on the other side of
the hill”. In this case we have changed the hill; hence we should now
restart to analyze as to what lies on the other side. More importantly if we
are to make a success of Abrogation of Article 370 we need to neutralize Pakistan
and its antics. As said earlier, Pakistan could not care a damn as to what
happens in Kashmir or what is the fate of the people there. It is only
interested in wreaking revenge on India. That will not happen if we keep track of the changing shape of things from the other side in Pakistan and we stymie it.
REFRENCES
The deep state of Pakistan seems unprepared for any precipitous action as evidenced by the feeble reaction to Balakot. The financial state of Pakistan is so critical, that it is literally on ventilator. Nonetheless it's capacity for mischief can not be ignored.
ReplyDeleteI think now it's time to keep the issues in the back yard of Kashmir like Sindh and Balochistan burning so that they get a taste of their own medicine. I agree with your concept of strategic patience and tactical restraint as these will push Pakistan to rush into a foolish course of action.
Very well written article. Well thought of too. We must focus on their vulnerabilities. To add.... We Must Integrate the state fully by settling others in Jammu and leh vigorously and Kashmir slowly. Set up industry in Kashmir first and get their youth jobs and employment. It will reduce popularity of militancy and bring in faith in intentions of Indian government
ReplyDeleteSir very well analysed and articulated as usual. Abrogation of 370 has certainly challenged and shocked them upfront and some knee jerk reactions as and when certain relaxation is given in Kashmir , are on cards.It's better for us to make him keep guessing what will be our next move. We must keep the peddle pressed as far as baltistan, POK and Baluchistan so that it remains busy inwards. Bal has to be maint to see Chinas stance towards progressing CPEC and portion of land given to them by PAK.
ReplyDeleteWe must keep a tight vigil on the development on Afganistan front, this is very critical for rise and new method of fighting militancy
India should employ the RSS (non state actors to counter theirs) at the ground level. The
ReplyDeleteRSS which boasted of prompt response should now be tasked to infiltrate common kashmiris....fully integrated and coordinated with own PMF to neutralise the Pakistani threat.
Kashmir issues: Shape of things forthcoming-recommendations.
ReplyDeleteFrom my side recommend:
1. Pump in infrastructure funds.
2. Open IIT, IIM.
3. Job creation for skilled & unskilled youth.
4. Resettle all Kashmiri pundits back into State
5. Encourage tourism plus job creation
6. Dilute the Muslim majority by encouraging/incentive by sending MNC s, traders( Hindu, sikhs, punjabi s, Sindhi s & others.
7.Encourage inter caste marriages.
8. Urgent recognise BC, OBC, others, for job placement in govt/private sector.
9. Legalise organ donation- poverty reduced fastest.eg. BPL/farmer gets Rs. 2 lacs/kidney, Govt keeps Rs.2 lacs, recipient pays for transplant. Whole world will run to India to save their life. Foreigners pay Rs 5 lacs (US $). Win-Win for all stake holders. Eradicate poverty in 2-3 yrs. Our $ res goes up.
10. Medical tourism.
11. Specialist head select ministries- Defence, Railways, Food & Agriculture, river water mgt, Finance, Education, HRD, Climate change, smart cities, Highways, NSA, MEA. Under them Netas & IAS function with time bound short/long term missions. Best teams emerges. India grows fastest in GDP.
J J Singh
For a change I think we should just focus on Jammu and ladahak.
ReplyDeleteWe have invested too much time, money, effort and resources into the valley.
We need to realise that what ever we done for the people in the valley they are too radicalised and too far gone to appreciate.
Let them stew in the mess of their own making.
Let's develop Jammu and ladahak.
Good analysis.
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ReplyDelete