The Pakistani FM to BBC: War would be suicidal.
Pakistan has already started negotiating with a gun to its head!
Welcome
home Wing Commander Abhinanadan. Well done. You flew into the Valley of Death and
survived.
India is proud.
Sincere
condolences to Air Marshal Waseem Ud Din on the loss of his son Shahaz Ud Din
under most unfortunate circumstances.
He
was incredibly brave to continue his mission when others had turned around.
Paradigm Emerged
A lot has happened since Balakot. Some in
focus some out. Some hyped. Some diffused. Time to sum up the situation and see
where things are heading. Militarily it is called Review of the Situation. I
will do it journalistically so that the intellectual western media
understands it. They might or not buy our story. Incidentally it is not a
story. It is not for sale. This is real live action. Nuclear exchange receding.
Not ruled out.
A fundamental paradigm has emerged. India’s
fight is against terror. The Deep State’s (Pakistani Army) fight is against
India. This is an unstable equation. Balance will only be regained when the people
of Pakistan lose complete faith in the ability of Deep State to protect them. As
I had mentioned earlier, this unbalancing Centre of Gravity must be destroyed. (https://palepurshankar.blogspot.com/2019/02/destruction-of-deep-state-national.html)
Military Issues
Balakot Strike. The IAF came out unscathed achieving total surprise. While the
tactical outcomes are being debated the strategic outcomes are great and analysed.
Curiously no one has been shown the strike site by Pakis. If they do, they will either admit damages or expose
existence of the terror facility. In all cases, existence of such a huge
facility is evidential of the Deep State’s complicity in terror propagation. Drive
it home to move Pakistan into FATF blacklist. (https://palepurshankar.blogspot.com/2019/02/balakot-western-media-hogwash-by-lt-gen.html)
Riposte. The PAF riposte was in heavy numbers aimed at military targets. It was well thwarted by IAF. Pakistan lost one F16 and its pilot. India lost one MIG
21 and were gifted a national hero. Courtesy ham-handed perception management by
the Deep State from capture, to interrogation to media parading and ultimately to
a badly edited video on release of Wing Commander Abhinandan. Boomerang! Clearly,
weapons given by USA to Pakistan for fighting terror were being used for aiding
and propagating terror! Someone will feel sheepish and investigate use of AMRAM
missiles and F16’s & end user certifications. Pack-istani duplicity lies exposed.
In India we have maintained that Pack-istan
always throws the hounds off-scent and scampers off - since it is the hare!
Larger Issue. A Large issue has emerged. IAF
and USAF have held joint air exercises since the Red Flag days in Alaska. IAF has been regularly bettering the F series of US aircraft. Now they have downed
a F16 with a MIG21. Pakistan did not use the Chinese JF17s in this action. Not
considered good enough? Untested aircraft. Untested pilots. Sheer numbers. Yes,
I am talking of China. Read my analysis again ( https://palepurshankar.blogspot.com/2019/02/an-unstable-china-indian-window-of_11.html).
The statement by Xi Jinping that he wants PLA to be like US forces conveys something
huge. China will not jump into this in a hurry.
LOC. I am sure my Gunners are sending hell across
the LOC. The pressure on all Pakistani posts will be red hot. With their
shortage of ammunition, I wonder how long will they last? Also, the punishment being
meted out will psychologically dislocate troops on ground. Suggestion. Send up
whatever ULH and Dhanush we have been handed over. Their direct fire sights and
mobility in mountains will make them lethal force multipliers. Bunkers can be
destroyed with half the effort. Blood them in.
Western Fleet. Some reports indicate that the Western fleet is out at sea. Presence
is enough. It will discourage traffic into Karachi. Look up marinetraffic.com and see
the ships berthed in Karachi port. Yesterday they were less than 5-6 vessels. All others are waiting out at sea. No oil
tanker listed in incoming vessels. Energy crisis looming?
Air Space Closure. Pakistani air space and airports
are closed till 04 March. Apart from economic, human and security issues, there
seems to be a severe shortage of ATF. IAF must assess PAFs stamina to sustain air
defence/ surveillance ops/ patrolling. Rattle sabres. Keep PAF up in air.
Prolong the tension. Dry out the tanks. Covert ops on ATF installations?
Nukes Deployed? The question is will/or has the Deep State deployed its nukes? Some
focussed satellite recce is the order of the day. I am sure the world does not
want a nuclear holocaust. Get international surveillance resources to track Pak
Nukes. Time to start locating Nasr’s (https://bharatshakti.in/hunting-for-nasr/)
. There were also reports of their nukes being shifted to Saudi Arabia. I will
discount that at present.
Diplomatic Issues
OIC Meet. Our External Affairs Minister addressed the OIC as a guest of
Honour. Pakistan, the once self-proclaimed leader of OIC stayed away in protest.
This has not gone down well within Pakistan itself. That is huge. Some
self-isolation. No help?
(https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/india-invited-as-guest-of-honour-to-oic-meet-sushma-swaraj-to-attend-1550913750935.html)
. ( https://newsd.in/islamabad-should-have-attended-oic-meet-pakistani-editorials/)
Mediation. Russian attempts at mediation have been rejected. India has clearly said that there is no
requirement for anyone else to mediate since the situation is stabilising. (Note
– Stabilising and Not de-escalating). It
is now clearly face to face between India and the Deep State. (https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-pakistan-tensions-no-russian-mediation-required-situation-is-stabilizing-says-india/article26419301.ece)
Muted China. China has been muted in its
reaction. The joint declaration to root out terrorism by Foreign Ministers of
China, Russia and India has something to do with this. Its interests are in
danger. (https://in.news.yahoo.com/terrorism-threat-international-peace-security-india-russia-china-134820807.html).
Imran Khans Gesture in Releasing Wing
Commander Abhinandan. The Pak PMs televised
speech and gesture in releasing Wing Commander Abhinandan is an attempt at de-escalation
and to get India to talk. It is more an attempt to regain normalcy through the
international community. Normalcy means business as usual – an unshackled Deep
State reverting to type with its sword arms – ISI, LET, JEM, HM, Haqqanis etc
etc. I am dismayed at some sections of our media which declared that Imran Khan has
upstaged our PM. Stupid. The line of
Pakistani action is clear. Talk through puppets and action by Deep state.
Pak FMs Statement on Masood. Pak FM admitted, in public, about
knowing Masood Azhar’s whereabouts but demurred action without proof. Does one
need proof that Imran Khan is a cricketer after lifting the World Cup?
Similarly does one need any further proof of Masood being a Terrorist after
getting a release through a hijacking? Further JEM has come out with an audio
message to proclaim that it is alive and kicking. I wonder, at times, if
Pakistan will apply to the Vatican for sainthood for Masood Azhar for his lifelong
effort at uplifting downtrodden and destitute terrorists. Balakot will be their
City of Joy? Masood Azhar, their Mother Teresa?
Dossier Exchange. There were reports that some dossier exchanges are being carried
out. I think it is time we stopped wasting our effort at this unproductive
exercise.
Economic Issues
Oil and Energy Security. As per emerging reports there is likely to be an energy emergency
in Pakistan. With airports closed, its railways and road network must take on
burden of internal movement which it cannot. It will do well to keep tabs on
the country’s energy reserves. The people and unrest will be the best
indicator.
Financials. The state of Pak economy is well known. Empty tank. Running on
fumes. The Pak rupee has taken a hit. It has slid from 121 per USD range in Oct
to 138 now. The Karachi Stock index has dipped from 53103 to 39084 (approx.
26%) in a year. The whole country is on the brink of a financial meltdown. It
might just collapse. That will trigger unrest on the streets. If that starts, Pakistani toxicity will be at its lethal best. Think ahead of the curve to
generate options.
Domestic Issues
Action Against Hardliners and
Separatists. Resolute action against hardliners has commenced.
JEI banned. Hurriyat taken hold of. Hotline to Pakistan and a 40-foot antenna discovered
from Mirwaiz’s house. A 40-foot antenna! What was he doing? Communicating with
aliens for recruitment? The fellow should be tried for treason on fast track
basis. There are some feeble protests on streets. Nothing major. Counter terror
operations must continue with out let up.
Elections. Our elections will be on schedule as per the Election Commission. It
is an important timeline for Pak which will aim to stave off till elections. Indian interests and its
focus will shift. Pakistan will have recovered from the brink. Doesn’t matter as
to who wins. The government policy against the Deep State should stay the
course. If it veers, it might be a win for the emergent ruling party/coalition,
but India will lose. I do hope leaders of all hues are reading and
understanding this. Political dissonance is fine. However, if political parties
merely welcome Abhinandan back or issue statements in support of the Armed
Forces they would have missed the trick and the national pulse. They must spell
out a strategy to take this issue to its terminal state.
Summation
Very evident that there is method in our
madness backed by a steely national resolve. The long haul has begun. It will
be an uphill task. So far there is nothing to give solace to Pakistan. It finds
itself under severe pressure and isolated. Keep it that way. There will be a
reaction from the Valley in direct proportion to the pressure on Pakistan. A
hot LOC will keep the pot on the boil. While certain de-escalation has taken
place in one slice of the air dimension, notes from other keys are now getting
audible in lower thresholds.
In my opinion it is time to convey some direct
messages to the People of Pakistan. The messages should have the following content:
-
We have no issue
with Pakistanis. Our fight is against terror.
The Deep State can
no more protect Pakistan. Discredit it.
The imminence of financial
and resource collapse and melt down should be outlined. Hardship to follow must be indicated.
A handful of individuals
and organisations have put the Awam of Pakistan at risk. Is it ok for them?
Hatred against
India cannot be the sole idea of Pakistanis. They too can be like India.
Progress towards prosperity.
Many more ideas
can be added. However, do not be ham handed like the DGISPR.
We will await the next 48-72 hours to see
as to where this is going.
Postscript
I do hope that the review addresses the
lofty intellectual western media narratives which have often enabled countries to
declare dismal defeats as epic victories in a manner which would make that
great man, Fd Marshal Slim turn in his grave. We do not need their
pontification or opinion. It has not helped us for three decades or more. We
are on our own. Let us sort this mess out our way.
One emergent reality of this conflict. Modern
missiles are great on paper. In battle they are notoriously unreliable. The
older they are the more unreliable they would be. Western Media. Please do not spook
Pak. They could fire a nuke tipped missile. Their missiles are old. If any missile
goes rogue, we in India might end up being safe. This is not a pun. It is a
hard reality from someone who has seen Missiles misbehaving for 40 years.
Humour
Humor during such times brings in left
handed reality. I had put out some tweets from my handle @palepurshankar. The gist
is below
ON
PAK ASSEMBLY RECOMMENDING NOBEL PRIZE FOR IMRAN KHAN
2020 Nobel
Peace Prize presentation ceremony. Imran Khan accepts prize with Hafiz Sayeed
and Masood Azhar flanking him as best men in militant splendour. Bajwa applauding
from shadows. His ex’s doing cheer
leading. What a once in lifetime spectacle! I am booking my tickets.
ON MASOOD AZHAR
BEING UNWELL
Dear
Pakistan. Send him to Chennai -Indian medical tourism hub. Luxury guaranteed
through CSR. Free treatment. Choose hospital or specialty. Will personally
speak to my FM for special visa. Freebie. Conducted tour of Madras High Court.
ON BALAKOT
Balakot
tourist resort reconstruction. Re-opening shortly. Prime attractions. Militant
trail walk. Radical training discourse. JEM-Deep State cooperation demo. Early
bird offer. Suicide vest @ 50%discount. Special midnight experience. Sighting
Mirages. High adrenaline adventure. Ejection from F16 over POK in PAF uniform.
ON PAK
BOYCOTTING OIC
Pakistan FM
did not attend OIC meet. Why? He could not get a flight since Airports were
closed!
Any more questions?
I am not supposed to tell you that!
(learnt from abhinandan)
JAI HIND
I got this comment offline. Very illustrative of how things are moving. So I am adding it as my comment .,,,,,,,,,,,,,just want take a dive on the economic clout of India and its impact /behavior of gulf countries including Saudi . India is a third largest importer of gas ( LNG) from Qatar , paying in hard currency ( $ 12bln Appx ) ,
ReplyDelete5 th largest trading partner for UAE, paying in hard currency , one of the largest importers of oil from Saudi ; in a tectonic shift in the oil markets , USA is now a exporter not an importer . India Imports lot of oil Kuwait as well. Put this all together , now India is too important a market and growing for these oil and gas exporting countries . These economies are badly needing USD to sustain their agendas ( Saudi in Yemen and beyond like funding Egypt and buying loyalties all around including Bahrain which is bankrupt already ) . Their citizens are so spoiled that , the monarchy will have to keep the subsidies as is . That also explains the inbound investments which Saudi’s are pitching . They are burning around 12 billion USD a month on Yemen until some time ago . May be less now. Their family jewel ( ARAMCO) was put on the block but withdrawn as oil market has recovered and stabilized. But once Iran and Iraq pumps oil at some point in time , the markets will collapse again . Now cutting the long story , compare that with Pakistan which is going around with a begging bowl asking for charity .. the contrast can’t be more crystal clear . the job market in GCC is in shambles with increasing localization labor. Lack of economic growth in GCC Is hurting them and will have a collateral damage for labor exporting countries. I will have to say that need to re confirm some number mentioned in this post but they are close . That explains the attitude of GCC counties and the invite to India in the OIC . Pakistan was getting hard currency from US , that has stopped , China is not giving any cash ( never gives cash) but putting the money on infra and awarding the contract to Chinese companies , soon pakistan will run out of cash , unless IMF steps in . The loans from GCC are short term fixes , won’t last for more than 9 months at best . So interesting times ahead. My two cents sir . Best
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Excellent analysis of prevailing situation and some subtle (and at time, not so subtle) nudge to decision makers as to the desired way forward. Apt and to the point. Experience speaks eloquently!
ReplyDeleteLogical and thoughtful analysis..gives a clear understanding of the situation as also what our best options are at this pt in time.. Sir I am forwarding to my contacts on social media.. let's hope the politicians at least the sensible lot amongst them read this article.. thx Sir
ReplyDeleteSir it is a very illustrative analysis of the prevailing situation between two traditionally hostile neighbours. I will like to add few points here.
ReplyDelete1. Multi-dimensional boycott. Let Pak be made to realise its folly (ies) by isolating it completely through its boycotting in all spheres including sports, culture, literature.
2. Politicisation of Armed Forces. Let a strong signal be sent by armed forces community through veterans to all political parties that their political overtones to milk the events associated with armed forces will be taken as insult to solemn & patriotic contributions of soldiers.
3. Doing away with delays in PSDA. All prevailing advanced modes of technology be employed to gain effectiveness of our strikes on hostile targets.
However one thing which clearly emerged from the attack & counter Air attacks, is that the IAF needs emergency upgradation of its fleet. If even after this our Political class doesn't deter from throwing the spanner in Defence upgradation, we may pay a heavy price in the future.
ReplyDeleteSir, do you think the political is bothered about the country? It is a big no from my side. All this nonsense being spoken makes it obvious. The only interest is to win a place in the elections so that yesterday's trail of misappropriation are put under the carpet and the balance of public exchExche quer is in reach. Don't you notice the hysterical behaviour of leaders in the east
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteSir
ReplyDeleteNeed to go on air and not restrict to Print or social media. Too many people shouting on TV with no content.
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