The post WW2 British colonial collapse left the ‘Great Game’ Imperialists with a quandary. How to stem the spread of communism of Soviet Russia? How to stop its confluence with India whose socialism was visible even then. A geostrategic wedge that would simultaneously connect and separate – the Middle East, Soviet Central Asia, Chinese controlled East Turkestan, Tibet and the rest of the Subcontinent was needed. The two-nation theory swirling in political circles provided the answer. A prosperous Islamic country based on the fertile Indus Valley and fronted by the Hindukush was the solution. It could be granted Independence while the Rest of India would be earning it through a grim struggle. A country so created would be ever beholden to the West to be its frontline in the region. Pakistan, the Unnatural Frontline State was thus created through British machinations. East Pakistan (Bangladesh) was an irrelevant by product. While this was so; ‘Not Being India’ - the opiate for the Muslims became the raison d'être for Pakistan. Starting from ‘Not Being India’, Pakistan morphed into an endemic ‘Anti India’ existential crisis mentality. This unnatural state has a basic fault line of an identity schism. Is it a frontline state or an anti-India state? While it kept answering this question it ended up being the frontline pawn.
While frontlines
are always dangerous, there is something very fundamental about them. The
battlefield is supposed to be on the other side. Not on your turf. That is changing.
Pakistan has now ceased to be on the frontline. It is the battle ground
now!
Contours
of the Frontline State
Pakistan
has been a multidimensional frontline since inception. It has been the
frontline for USA through many periods. Hark back to the days of SEATO and
CENTO days when it played dual, often antagonistic and at
times devilish roles on the global stage [1]. Next came
the heady 80s and 90s period of throwing Soviets out of
Afghanistan through the creation of Mujahideen and Osama Bin Laden. That was
the time it learnt the art of using ’Terror as an instrument of state
policy’. It was followed by its double-dealing participation in America’s
war in Afghanistan ever since the Twin Towers were brought down. In between it
was the frontline midwife to reconnect USA and China. Remember the famous secret
visit of Kissinger to China courtesy Pakistan?[2]
All midwifery for USA contributed to revenues, military might and its nuclear
rise. Especially when USA decided to look the other way as Pakistan was
clandestinely developing nuclear weapons. It was a frontline proliferator
through the ‘Nuclear Black-market’ with N Korea and China[3].
It is not without reason that it was known that Pakistan has survived on three As
– America, Army and Allah[4].
The identity crisis of ‘Not Being Indian’ drove Pakistanis to the Islamic World seeking kinship through imaginary Arabic [5]and Turkic[6] origins. Though spurned, it sought a frontline role in the Islamic World through the Islamic Bomb[7]- a term famously coined by Bhutto. Then, it ‘Rented’ out its military in a mercenary role to the highest bidder(s). Now, it sees itself in a prima donna role to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia[8].
The identity crisis of ‘Not Being Indian’ drove Pakistanis to the Islamic World seeking kinship through imaginary Arabic [5]and Turkic[6] origins. Though spurned, it sought a frontline role in the Islamic World through the Islamic Bomb[7]- a term famously coined by Bhutto. Then, it ‘Rented’ out its military in a mercenary role to the highest bidder(s). Now, it sees itself in a prima donna role to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia[8].
Pakistan
has been the frontline for the Taliban also, having helped in its creation and
hoisting it into power in its quest for strategic depth in Afghanistan[9].
Its frontline activity helped USA dismantle the very power structure it had
created in Afghanistan[10].
It is still in the frontline when it is seeking to install a Pakistani Backed Taliban
Government in Afghanistan[11]
while delivering an exit package to the USA.
Pakistan
was always a frontline state for China. It enabled China to re-enter the world
order from isolation. It is now the frontline for a China[12]
which is seeking superpower status and
access to the warm waters of the Gulf through the CPEC. It gives unstinted
support to China on all issues on a fully reciprocal basis. It is also enabling Chinese entry into Afghanistan
for economic reasons, dubious as they sound. Last but not the least, Pakistan
is the Chinese catspaw to keep India in check[13].
The pinnacle
of frontline status is its perpetual enmity with India and its unabated sponsorship
of terror in Kashmir. Its frontline role in various international terrorist
incidents is well documented from Twin Towers to London Bridge via Osama Bin
Laden at Abottabad. An Oxford Study
reveals that an Islamic Pakistan is thrice as dangerous to humanity than Syria[14].
General Mattis called it the most dangerous country he dealt with[15].
In all frontline roles, it has been played by all those it sought to play.
While others got what they wanted and when they wanted, Pakistan was reduced to
the role of a pawn in other’s games. Always at a loss.
State of Fault
Lines
The fundamental fault line of Pakistan is that the Idea of Pakistan
lacks substance. Way back in the 50s it was described that ’Pakistan
is not a nation and hardly a state. It has no justification, ethnic origin,
language, civilisation or the consciousness of those who make up its
population. They have no interest in common except one: fear of Hindu
domination. It is to that fear and nothing else that Pakistan poses its
existence and thus for survival as an independent state’[16].
From this basic flaw, other fault lines radiated. Today Pakistan is a country
of multiple crisscrossing fault lines[17] . Each fault line
contributes to the detriment of the other.
The Military
Faultline of Pakistan has no comparable parallel. The anti-India insecurity
and frontline mentality of the Pakistani Army has kept Pakistan in unaffordable
wars and conflicts. In this endeavor it transformed itself into a costly and unaccountable
Military State (nee Deep State) at the expense of a sinking Pakistan. It is the best Army never to have won a war. An Army which has outsourced
fighting to radicalised non-state actors while it runs a business empire[20].
An Army which runs with the hare and hunts with the hounds in the international
war against terror [21].
An Army which runs the country from the
back seat when it is not in direct power through coups[22]. The Army has been the ultimate two-faced Janus
- savior and destroyer of the nation at the same time[23].
The Socio Economic Faultline
in Pakistan is a byproduct resultant of its Frontlines and Faultlines. Pakistan
started out as a progressive State with impressive socioeconomic credentials including
high growth rates[24]. However, the switch to
radical Islam, unfettered military expenditure, constant political instability,
and an endemic anti India mindset have brought Pakistan to the brink of a socio-economic
collapse. Pakistan’s economy needs life support and need fixes it doesn’t have[25]. It is an International
pariah for investment barring the CPEC; which itself is in doldrums[26]. Its major indicators like
literacy rates, education standards, women’s rights, health status, water
availability are declining[27]. The socio economic Faultline
is going to be impacted heavily by climate change and other factors of neglect[28].
Emerging Battlegrounds
While all of us know
about Pakistan’s Faultlines and Frontlines, what is emerging ahead is that Pakistan
is now going to be a set of battlegrounds. These will be Geopolitical, Internal
Power Struggle, Resource Deficiency and Traditional Physical Battlegrounds.
Future wars and conflicts of Pakistan will be on these battlegrounds which have
emerged due to a collapsing economy. These battlegrounds need some
understanding.
The Global Geopolitical
Rivalry between USA and China has shifted into Pakistan[29]. Pakistan made a choice a
couple of years back when it publicly chose China and spurned USA. That was the
time when CPEC and BRI were on the upswing. It seemed that USA’s days were
numbered at the Top. USA allowed China to overstretch itself before it struck. It
struck back initially through the Trade War. It has also opened the gambit recently
in Pakistan when CPEC is seen in trouble[30]. With China and Pakistan fully enmeshed with
each other in the CPEC, USA will leave no stone unturned to see that CPEC is
derailed, Chinese influence is limited and Pakistan is forced to heed to US
interests in the region, whether Pakistan likes it or not. USA has enough
linkages within Pakistan to make this happen. The difference being – unlike
before Pakistan will not benefit from US largesse. China on its part will look
to it’s interests of getting full value out of Pakistan and CPEC one way or the
other. Pakistan will be caught squarely in the cross hairs without an economic
dole. As a frontline state, one could get compensated. As a battle ground
state, Pakistan will only suffer.
The Supreme Court of
Pakistan recently gave a conditional extension of service to the current Army Chief.
It also put constitutional conditionalities on the tenure of future Army Chiefs.
There is obviously more to it than meets the eye. Is the role of the Army being
sought to be curtailed? There is a whiff
of dissent within the Army Hierarchy. It has also brought forward the necessity
of a rare interdependence between the Army, Executive and the Judiciary[31]. The role of the Army in
the governance paradigm of Pakistan is being publicly questioned. There will be
an Internal Power Struggle between the governing institutions of
Pakistan till a new normal is found. Let’s not have doubts – unless there is a
coup.
Pakistan is heading into a
Resource Deficiency Battleground being prepared by
climate change, totally unarmed, unprepared and unaided. Imran Khan in his UN
address said, ‘Pakistan is among the top 10 nations in the world affected by
climate change[32]’.
It depends on Indus – A single river system fed by glaciers which are melting
at a rapid pace. It is already a water scarce state soon heading into absolute
water scarcity[33].
Its agricultural economy will be turned on its head. Pakistan does not have the economic or
political wherewithal to combat this problem. No nation will aid Pakistan till
such time it continues to pose as a great nuclear and military power.
Pakistan’s relations with
all its neighbors is so poor that it conflicts and maintains live borders with all
of them. A war with India is always on a short fuse. The CPEC has turned out to be its third front
which needs protection – internally and externally. All insurgencies, sub
national and separatist movements have made Pakistan into a battleground in
their areas of influence. To top it Pakistan has extended the battleground well
into Afghanistan and Kashmir through its own machinations. Overall the Traditional
Physical Battleground is going strong and will only get messier. No one
wants peace with a Pakistan which does not want peace with itself.
Future Imperfect
What does the future hold
for Pakistan? It was said that ‘Pakistan
was too dangerous and important to fail’ [34]. However,
take any analysis of a list of failed states and you will find Pakistan there [35]. It has moved past the
failure stage. It has too many moving parts which will keep it destabilized. The
question which we must ask hereafter is - will Pakistan disintegrate?
Difficult to answer. At present it will not be in the interest of either USA or
China to see Pakistan disintegrate. They will do their best to ensure that it
does not happen. In the same breadth they are in no position to stabilize it
and bring some semblance of normalcy. The frontlines, faultlines and battlegrounds
will add to the chaos already existing in Pakistan. Hence it would be fair to
say that we will have to contend and deal with a neurotic Pakistan which will progressively
be more unstable than before. At the same time, we will have to prepare
ourselves with the possibility of its disintegration.
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