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Military Aggression
People are wondering as to where the ongoing Sino Indian
Military standoffs along the LAC are heading. I am clear and confident that Indian Army will give a befitting reply under the
circumstances. China's actions are out of type and not routine.
The Standoffs. There
are three ongoing standoffs in the Northern Sector at Galwan, Fingers Area and
Demchok. One standoff took place at NakuLa in the East. An instigation through
Nepal at Lipulekh Pass is ongoing. It covers almost the whole LAC. Many reasons
can be ascribed for this aggression against India – routine summer infringements,
objection to border infrastructure improvement, Atma Nirbhar Abhiyan, tacit support
to Taiwan, not joining RCEP, abrogation of Article 370, denial of investment in
India. The Naku La and Galwan standoffs are out of place since they are in
undisputed areas. The Fingers and Galwan area incursions are provocative. The standoff
at Demchok is defensive in nature to thwart off any Indian reaction from there.
The Western Highway is closest to Demchok. Overall these incursions are planned
and coercive.
The Far East. Let us step to the Far East. China sensed a strategic
opportunity when others were battling Covid and it had come out of it. Hence China
sunk a Vietnamese fishing boat and has been belligerent with Malaysia,
Indonesia, Brunei, Philippines, Japanese and South Korea in the South and East
China Seas and the Yellow Sea. It also heightened threats and calls of cross
straits action against Taiwan when the US carriers were out of action for four
weeks. The word ‘peaceful’ has been dropped from its Taiwan reunification
plans. It has been carrying out extensive firing drills at sea. Now it intends
to carry out major amphibious exercises in South China sea with both aircraft carriers.
Intimidation and coercion.
Worst Case. China’s worst-case option is to get militarily
engaged at its front door at Sea and rear door in Tibet thousands of Km apart
in a pincer. Yet, that is exactly what it is doing through its provocation. Internally
stoking high-pitched nationalism. Country under threat. Everyone is against us
and are attacking us. We are strong enough to guard ourselves. However as the
ante is raised, a sane voice emerges to calm things down. It happened when Qiao
Ling, a known hawk, came up with advice of restraint and reasons not to invade
Taiwan. Internally play the benevolent statesman. Externally continue to coerce, bully, and
frighten the target country to fall in line.
Diplomatic Aggression
Diplomacy
is supposed to calm things down and build bridges. However Chinese ‘Wolf Warrior’
diplomats in Australia, Germany, France, South Africa and other countries have
done exactly the opposite. Being nasty and offensive. Similarly some voices of
reason are cropping up. However the foreign minister is backing them publicly.
The portrayal is tough diplomats who can hold their end up and talk down to
democratic nations which are essentially weak. Stoking Nationalism.
Decoupling Derision
The decoupling drive has taken
shape. USA, UK, EU, Japan, India, and others have drawn up tangible time bound
plans for decoupling. USA has started focused action to include
withdrawal of US Government funds, blocking Huawei, blocking IPR theft and ‘Made
in China 2025” plans, forcing US companies to set up facilities in the homeland.
Alternative countries are being chosen. There is also talk of excluding Beijing from a
new international economic order. People are talking of “de-sinicisation” and “deglobalization”.
China is arguing to
highlight the benefit and good effect of globalization Decoupling and relocation from China is
pooh poohed. No one else can match China in Production, Quality, Efficiency, Cost,
and time. How can the world live without that? Their Efforts will end in failure. All this derision
is internal show casing and stoking nationalism of Chinese superiority.
Pandemic Coercion
Examine the Pandemic. Bungling and hiding details including
that of human to human transmission during initial stages were denied vehemently.
Mention that Covid affected people could travel abroad when internal travel was
banned is buried. When questions arose, China weaponized trade to intimidate and
coerce nations. USA was reminded that it was dependent on China for medical
supplies. Australian beef was banned. EU was arm twisted to tone down and more.
When its propaganda failed it promised 2 bn USD to WHO. It seemed to cooperate
by agreeing for an inquiry when the situation stabilizes. Which means never.
External compromise achieved. Internally all shows highlight great leadership,
China saving the world, the Serbian President kissing the Chines flag,
ungrateful democratic systems like USA suffering since they are weak. China the
greatest. USA in decline. China’s time has arrived. Stoking nationalism again.
Revving Up Nationalism
The ordained Middle Kingdom mindset is the bedrock of
nationalism in China. Despite that why is China revving up nationalism to such
unprecedented levels? Nationalism can be stoked for many reasons to include
diverting focus away from failure, covering up a miscalculation, superiority
and overconfidence in own ability and exploiting a fleeting strategic opportunity.
In the case of China it is a mix of all. It might have started to seize an
opportunity but is probably ending up covering failure. The major contributory
factors need understanding since aggression against India is part of this jingoist
approach.
Job Crisis and Unrest
China is facing a job crisis of unprecedented proportions. Their
PM mentioned job 38 times in his speech to the NPC. Around 6% unemployment is
for the organized sector. New graduates have few jobs. Migrant labor is badly
hit. Overall assessment is that 20% of the population is unemployed. Many in
jobs have taken massive pay hits. It implies 20-30 million out of jobs. Unrest
is on the cards. In democratic countries it could result in change of governments
and that would be acceptable. Not in China where the CCP must stay in power. Hence
the issue must be diverted to external threat and nationalism.
Recession
Looming
A recession
and contraction of the economy is anticipated. Growth targets are not even mentioned. The Chinese
are bracing for a collapse of exports and are turning to internal consumption. That
has not happened so far. People have drawn money from banks, kept it at home
and are not spending. Internal consumption? Ominous sign. Chinese debt is 317%
of its GDP. Most of this debt is held by government controlled financial
bodies. Cannot be disposed since it is all paper transaction and hollow. Their military budget has stood virtually still.
Their R&D spend has decreased. In such conditions recourse to hyper nationalism
is natural to divert attention.
Hong Kong
Hong Kong situation is getting complex. The new national
security law is a violation of the status accorded to Hong Kong by the Treaty with
UK till 2047. Hence mistrust and the reaffirmation that China will not live up
to any international treaty/commitment is reinforced. Hong Kong has reunited
the Western democracies against China. That was fragmenting recently. Very importantly
unrest and crackdowns are within Chinese Borders with potency to morph and
spread. China will externalize the situation through nationalism in another
incident.
Miscalculation
Despite all
the hype and hoopla surrounding China, it is set to miss all targets of the
great China Dream. In fact the Virus has finished off the era of great
strategic opportunity and has had China scrambling for worst case scenarios. Instability
is part of this shift. Overall, nationalism to externalize the situation is attractive
to China even if it means misery to people. If the situation is externalized,
the CCP will stay in power. Misery to the people is not unacceptable or new in
China. CCP out of power is new and unacceptable. Their media had also reported
that the Indian Army efficacy was affected by the pandemic. Hence China has probably
miscalculated badly to take advantage of a nonexistent situation. If it can
coerce India, lot of things fall into place – markets, breaking of the anti-china
alliance, showing a competitor in poor light, and sending signals to lesser
countries to fall in line. We need to react accordingly.
Hitting a Wall
While many scenarios can be thought of, a major conflict is
virtually ruled out. There is force parity on the Himalayan ridge line. If anything,
we might be better off. The Army component of PLA is less than 50% of the
overall 2.3 million strength. That means force parity at macro level with
Indian Army also. For a major offensive, China needs force preponderance of 6-9
in the Himalayas. It simply does not have the numbers. A minor offensive can be
responded to. Indian asymmetric and non-conventional responses in Tibet and Xinjian
are many if the situation arises. The border infrastructure has improved tremendously
hence troop movement and reinforcements are better facilitated. When I last
served there a decade and a half back, reaching Galwan and Fingers in strength involved
mounting an expedition. Today one just drives in there, as per reports. The Himalayas
rules out many domains. One must fight mostly on the ground. Chinese
inexperience will eventually show out. This will be a protracted affair whose
outcomes are unpredictable at best. Then of course the IAF has a distinctive
edge. Indian Artillery has gained in strength. If the Chinese attempt to shift more
troops into the area it will leave them vulnerable at the front door. The front
door has greater priority and sensitivity – Taiwan, South China Sea, and overseas
assets. A weakening and others will pounce. Most importantly, Armed Forces are
one time wonders at present. Fire it once and it cannot be reloaded. Can china
risk that?
Resolution by Force – A Non-Starter
Then there is a major issue. After 1962, China or any other
country has not been able to resolve anything by force with India. Even in 1971
when USA brought USS Enterprise into the Bay of Bengal, we did not flinch. The last
time China tried something funny with India at Doklam, they hit a wall and had
to be given an exit route without loss of face. Any loss of face will be severe
in the current conditions. In my opinion the Chinese will start talking peace once
they find that that the odds are against them –
which they are. They can consult their Rusted Iron Brother and learn that the
India is a tough nut to crack. There are two likely outcomes. The standoff ends
at a table and China withdraws to resume as an unmanned LAC or we end up with a
manned LAC.
The
Revenge of the Virus
The Virus
has a bearing on the whole affair. The longer the virus lasts the farther will
be the start of Chinese recovery and more will be the Chinese instability. The Virus
has shown no signs of abating nor is it amenable to CCP dikatats. There is no
doubt that the Virus has affected democracies more than China. However,
democracies have learned to live with it, reopen their economies, start their
path to progress to the new normal despite the Virus. China, on the other hand
has done only one thing. Shut down drastically at the hint of an outbreak. The people
and the government do not know how to exist with it. The new normal for China
is a draconian shut down every time the virus makes its presence felt. Some part
of the Chinese jigsaw will always be shut hereafter and its recovery will
always be incomplete. The virus from Wuhan seems to be having
the last laugh – it has put its master ,
China , in international isolation.
MY ANALYSIS ON THE SINO INDIAN
CONFLICT MATRIX IS CONTAINED IN THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES
THIS IS
AN EXTRACT FROM AN INTERESTING ARTICLE
Six Wars China Is Sure to Fight In the Next 50
Years
The 3rd War: “Reconquest” of
Southern Tibet (Year 2035 to 2040)
China
and India share a long border, but the only sparking point of conflicts between
the two countries is only the part of Southern Tibet. China has long been the
imaginary enemy of India. The military objective of India is to surpass China.
India aims to achieve this by self-development and importing advanced military
technologies and weapons from the....... ..If China uses military force
to conquer Southern Tibet, it has to bear some losses. In my opinion, the best
strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into
several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.
Of
course, such plan may fail. But China should at least try its best to incite
Assam province and once conquered Sikkim to gain independence, in order to
weaken the power of India. This is the best strategy.....
Read more at:http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/six-wars-china-is-sure-to-fight-in-the-next-50-years/
CHINA WILL NEVER REACH THERE
very balanced and realistic. . unlike some of the alarmist calls without a wholesome understanding of the issue, the author in this article logically analyses the current indo china dynamics in the backdrop of what is happening in HK, Taiwan, South China Sea, the backlash and ill will that is mounting against her by the day and the fact that even if China ventures in, the Indian Army and our Air Force are adequately prepared to meet the Chinese in the mountains.
ReplyDeleteDear Shankar, the conflict scenario is changing every day! With Trump & half the world supporting India, the Chinese will think twice before undertaking a major misadventure against India, specially with its it's inability to fight against half a doz fronts! Our approach has changed drastically since the days of Nehru, & UPA regimes! For the better!
ReplyDeleteHow do we get China to go back from Galwan valley area
ReplyDeletegr8 analysis Comrade! as usual. One thing, their Achilles heel is "loss of face". Use social media to point out their failures, their failed leaders... especially during the 100th anniversary of the failed communist party. They "manage" the media. we should outdo them. Have you noticed, not a single news item of their withdrawal in the international media?
ReplyDelete