INDO US STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP : A REALITY CHECK by Lt Gen P R Shankar (R)

HAPPY DEEPAWALI TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY

 

The Basic Architecture

 

The India-U.S. bilateral cooperation is broad-based. Its vista is multisectoral - trade and investment, defence and security, education, science and technology, cyber security, high-tech, civil nuclear energy, space technology and applications, clean energy, environment, agriculture and health.  The India-U.S. Dialogue Architecture consists of a high level 2+2 dialogue and more than 50 other bilateral dialogue mechanisms. People-to-people interaction is vibrant. This partnership cuts across the political spectrum in both countries. India and US are ‘Major Defence Partners’ with cooperation in counter-terrorism, intelligence sharing, information exchange, operational cooperation, technology, training  and equipment.

 

Pundits have aired views on how the new Biden administration will approach the Indo US relationship.  As the uncertainty of who will be the next US President, plays itself out, let me put it up front. The Indo-US relation is strategic and will change marginally with personalities. It has been developed over two decades since the turn of the century. The early interlocutors were  Mr Jaswant Singh Minister, then External Affairs Minister  and Mr Strobe Talbot, then Deputy Secretary of State. The trajectory of this relationship has risen with each new President. If the  21^st Century is all about China’s rise,  the Indo US strategic partnership is the ‘Enduring Global Partnership’ which can equally define this era. Leave polemics aside,  focus on realities of the relationship to get a better understanding. 

Enduring Realities

 

The Indo-US strategic partnership has a deep sociological phenomenon. Brilliant and  hardworking first generation Indians made USA their home and contributed to its greatness while still retaining some connect with India. Their second generation - Americans of Indian descent like late Kalpana Chawla,  Bobby Jindal,  Kamala Harris and Nikki Hailey have gone on to become astronauts, senators, state governors , ambassadors now even a Vice President (across the political divide). Reflect. One does not find second generation Americans of Chinese or Pakistani descent in the same bracket. This phenomenon is expanding with a thriving Indian community increasing in prominence in USA. There  is great depth to this relationship. 

 

In an era where autocracies are blooming, India and USA remain the two great democracies despite all their inadequacies. The oldest democracy and the largest one are kicking alive. The recent US presidential elections and the legislative cliff-hanger in Bihar - tough  pandemic conditions – people coming out to vote  – election officials taking time to deliver results as per law – outcomes irrelevant. Resilient democracies at work. Both countries have repeatedly shown that they have the capacity to discard people, who become too big for themselves, like soiled diapers. Both countries have withstood immense hardships and adversities to rise again. These are great values to cherish. 

 

Recent events have wrought critical changes in both countries. India, badly affected by the Virus,  weathered it with a plan and is recovering. Its  economy has started to chug back. Most importantly, India exorcised the Ghost of 1962 by stopping Chinese aggression in its tracks in Eastern Ladakh. If reports coming in are true, China might actually step back and vacate areas forcibly occupied by it. This will be a first time in recent Chinese history. India has embarked upon Atma Nirbharta with this new found confidence of being able to tackle China. USA has tackled the Virus haphazardly and has suffered serious causalities. Its economy has been hit seriously. The country stands deeply polarised and divided. The last time one saw USA wracked by riots was during Vietnam War.  Things are way more serious this time. A lot of internal healing to do. Tough days ahead. The gap has narrowed between the two nations. However  this is the time to show empathy, cooperation and mutual respect rather than gloating or pontification or unwanted prescriptions towards each other. 

 

China and Pakistan – the iron brothers - are major threats to both countries. China badly wants to displace USA as the leading power and cap India’s rise. It has unleashed a multidomain contest, often using  very questionable means to achieve global domination and a Chinese World Order. China will persist with its effort and must be countered jointly. Two decades back this was foreseen. The strategic partnership was embarked upon by de-hyphenating Pakistan from the equation. Chinese role in spreading the Virus and its unwarranted expansionist aggression has incensed the  public in India and USA. This will solidify the partnership. Pack-istan oh Pakistan! The most dangerous country on earth - de-hyphenated - can never be ignored. The Twin Towers attacks; the only attack on US soil since Pearl harbour,  mounted from  Afghanistan, had Pakistani roots. Osama bin Laden was in Abbottabad not in Mars. The Afghanistan peace process will be attempted to be hijacked by Pack-istan to satisfy its addiction to strategic space. Pakistan will remain a state sponsor of terrorism with its ‘Hate India’ ideology. Pack-istan kept under control is the key to US homeland security and peace in India. CPEC is the key terrain battle to tackle China. In any calculation a degraded Pakistan must be made a millstone around China’s neck. Containment of China and Pakistan under check is of  critical interest to both nations and the World at large.  Other threats pale in comparison. In India there is absolute clarity on this. If some in USA see it any other way, they have blinkers on.

  

Current Realities     

 

The Chinese Virus has taken toll on the world and has affected people far and wide. The Virus will not get away from us for the next two to three years.  USA with its research capability is on the verge of a vaccine breakthrough. India has the production capacity and the expertise in handling and eradication of pandemics. Add these two together and global leadership is back on track to aid people genuinely and wean them away from Chinese malignancy. It is an opportunity that leadership of both nations must utilise. 

 

What Hitler and Nazis were to the last century, Xi Jinping and the CCP are to this century. All the talk of benign rise of China is poppycock. China has a large military which it wants to modernise as the most powerful military on earth. Only Indian and US armed forces can stop its malignant march. Not alone , but together. As per a Rand Report  ‘distance and geography work against the United States and largely counterbalance its military strengths, especially in scenarios around China's immediate periphery. China's ability to project power to more distant locations remains weak, and the United States continues to hold more decisive advantage at a distance from China's coast’. Its ability to project power at a distance will improve with time, unless, interfered with. Maintaining this condition should be the base case of ‘Chinese Containment’ for the Indo Pacific strategy. The Rand Report analyses a Sino US conflict framework. It has not factored in  India.  Examine the current scenario. Substantial PLA forces committed in Eastern Ladakh are fixed by India. Resultantly Chinese belligerence has been confined to its immediate periphery in the Pacific Seas. It could not venture afar. It  has not been able to embark on an any major offensive manoeuvre. USA with forces available to it, has been able to contain PLA in Chinese periphery despite what is outlined in the Rand report. Conversely, presence of three US aircraft carriers in the Pacific has pressurised China to restrict its adventurism against India. To think that India needs rescuing by US forces in the Himalayas or that India has to sail into the south China Sea is naïve thought. Military synergy is not physical. It is mental and situational. The current situation has exposed many shortcomings of PLA. Most importantly China must prepare for a two front confrontation which is presently beyond its capability. This will throw spanners in Chinese military modernisation and future capabilities. If China has to be contained militarily, the USA and India need greater synergy in future. In any case this is not the latest discovery since the apple fell on Newtons head. Indian and US Forces, have been going through  extensive training programs at individual, collective, national and international levels.  There are many areas of defence cooperation which have evolved over time. If Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Mongolia and Xinjiang are added to pose a joint asymmetric threat, then the Chinese fat will be in fire.

  

 

 

USA and India are large consuming economies. They need secure supply chains independent of China. Their economies can grow only if China is dampened. Economic containment of China hinges on success of decoupling of supply chains and squeezing its exports. China is acutely aware of this. It will do its utmost to break the decoupling process to ensure eternal dependence on China.  Relocation  of supply chains to BRI countries under debt to China might see relocated industry being blocked from being established, being owned by China in proxy / through investment or the relocation facility could be  undermined by subterfuge so that end users will have to revert to China for supply.  Hence relocation has to take place in a country which is safe from Chinese poaching and has the capacity cum scale to meet global requirement. Look where you want. The  answer will be found only in India. Containment of China will be  further  effective if BRI is slowed down or reduced in scale. All this is possible only if USA and India anchor the QUAD and form an economic and trade forum to set up alternative Infrastructure models and supply chains. If India and USA get together and make QUAD a success, global economic recovery is automatic. There is also considerable scope for expansion of direct Indo US trade. The Indo US economic partnership possibilities are many. The economic partnership has the potential of providing global leadership through the QUAD platform or otherwise. In turn the QUAD platform has the bandwidth to get ASEAN, Pacific countries, IOR and large parts of EU on board.  Lot of scope and options. It will need focused action by both administrations.  

 

USA and India are space and nuclear powers. They already have a civil nuclear agreement. They have potential to get their act together in space also. As it stands there is adequate cooperation between NASA and ISRO in space exploration. The frontier ahead is joint exploration of space based energy. All the efforts to get to Mars and Moon are ultimately about energy security for the next generation. In the same vein both countries would be natural partners in development of AI and robotics. More than anything, AI demands scale of high volumes repetitively,  in getting things right. Both countries have good linkages in energy sector which needs to be boosted. Also there is tremendous scope to get into renewables for the future. 

 

Into The Future

The trajectory of the Indo US strategic partnership has risen with time and the bandwidth has also widened. Both countries are at a historical  point where they must reinvent themselves for a better future. As and when the leadership of the two great democracies sit to talk, there are far more important issues to focus upon for their respective people than the pinpricks which keep appearing in the media.  

The one set of people who worry me most are the US citizens of Indian descent. The astute amongst them are great assets as I have mentioned earlier. The foolish among them become more Indian than Indians and more American than Americans. They give prescriptions which suits none.