Authors note: all photographs are taken from the articles referred to in the main body
This article can also be found @ https://sniwire.com/defence-security/2672/
The articles ‘New High Res Satellite Imagery Suggests Balakot Airstrike a ‘Precise
Miss’’[1]and ‘Were India’s airstrikes in Pakistan a strategy for
public approval’?[2] by a set of researchers from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) have been
doing the rounds. The first time I gave them a miss. The second time when they came
around, I read them. I found them a bit condescending. The articles
were brazenly suggestive that the IAF doesn’t know how to carry out targeting.
Specially the last part when the authors say “Some militaries, such
as those of the US and Australia, have spent years developing the technologies
and systems that enable precision strike and employing the skills required in
actual operations. But proficiency should not be taken for granted. It takes
more than the weapon itself to launch a successful precision strike.” The first
question which came to my mind was – when did Australia fire the last weapon in
anger? Hmm. The deputy sheriff to USA is at OK Corral gunfight again! Having
said that, I re-read the articles. Some interesting thoughts came up. I would
like to share them with my readers and a few intellectuals who have fought wars
on paper specially from the safety of the Southern Hemisphere.
The authors mention that “The first is that GPS
coordinates have three dimensions: elevation, latitude and longitude –
something we tend to overlook in everyday life when we navigate using a mobile
phone’s GPS function. Second, a glide weapon like the SPICE 2000 doesn’t fall
vertically to its target; it follows an inclined trajectory. Therefore, an
incorrect vertical coordinate will result in the weapon missing as surely as an
error in latitude or longitude.”
Look at the diagrams above. In fig 1, the range to the target
T from the gun is derived as a differential between the coordinates of the gun
and the target. There after an elevation
matching this range is worked out and fired at. The weapon follows a trajectory
to hit the target T. Simple. If the target T is on a hillock as at fig 2 and if
the weapon is fired with the same elevation based on the horizontal range the
weapon trajectory gets intersected at X and the impact occurs well short of the
target. So, to compensate for this, one must fire at a greater elevation as
shown in fig 3. Then the shell hits the target. I learnt that elevation is an
important part of targeting in the 70s, when I became a Gunner. It is true for
unguided/ guided missiles also. My point is that if the target elevation was
not accounted, the impact should have been short of the target. The ASPI team has stated that the bombs have gone over since they missed the target by 33 m. Height
was not factored in and hence the bombs sailed over and fell in the valley
yonder as shown in the picture below. If
height was missed out/ ignored in targeting as implied, the error of 33m due to
the differential of ellipsoidal height and orthometric height [3] would have helped the bombs
reach nearer to the target. The authors have a logic which needs a re look scientifically.
Secondly, it has been stated that a glide weapon like
the SPICE 2000 doesn’t fall vertically to its target; it follows an inclined
trajectory. That’s not correct. All surface attack weapons which are
to be employed in mountains have a steep dive/ vertical terminal phase. That is
par for course in all our weapon systems. We insist upon that since most of our
northern borders are Himalayas. Just look at the You Tube videos of the Spice
Bombs[4] and the US equivalent,
the JDAMS [5]. Both
indicate a very steep, almost vertical, terminal phase. Any incline over 60
degrees is enough to take out the height quotient in targeting. Beyond 60
degrees the targeting is literally two dimensional. Even if the approach /dive angle
(in the worst case) was 60 degrees and
the height error was 33 m as shown in the photo in the article the miss distance could have been only about 17m. See illustration below. Not hundred meters or more as is
being propagated. For a miss of 100-200 m as shown below, the angle of attack/
dive would have to be shallow around 10-15 degrees. That is ridiculous. IAF is
not daft.
This theory
is reinforced in the write up in Wikipedia, which says about JDAM (the Spices cousin),
that “Another important capability provided by GPS-based guidance is the
ability to completely tailor a flight trajectory to meet criteria other than
simply hitting a target. Weapon trajectories can be controlled so that a target
can be impacted at precise headings and vertical angles. This provides the
ability to impact perpendicular to a target surface and minimize the angle of
attack (maximizing penetration)”[6]
. In addition, the Spice/JDAM guidance kit has multiple settings for guidance to
home on to the target. So to assume that all of these have failed since we do
not know how to handle them is a bit preposterous. India is a reasonably technical
competent nation which has just finished demonstrating ASAT capability! Let us continue to assume that the theory put out is
correct and all the bombs landed as shown in the photograph below.
As
per the article “infrared satellite imagery indicates three circular areas – each roughly
30 metres in diameter – in which vegetation disappeared in the two days either
side of the strike and which are consistent with explosive impact sites”. If these are the
impact sites, a circular patch of 30 m dia indicates a vertical impact not an inclined / shallow impact. So, the original theory of the authors of an
inclined dive is out of the window. A
shallow/ inclined impact would have created a furrow, longitudinal in nature.
Look, that’s standard terminal ballistics. There is some thing called crater
examination which I used to do when I was a second lieut. Even at 50 degrees
angle of descent, one could decipher the direction of firing from the crater.
What’s more one can even assess the caliber of the projectile. Go to any firing
range in India, the locals always come to collect the Sikka(debris) after the
firing. So where is the bomb debris? Every shell / bomb burst leaves a debris.
Some body part, fin, fuse, some unfragmented piece will always be found at any
impact site. Surely if these were truly impact sites, the Pakistani Army, which
is a professional Army, would have got hold of the debris and would have
paraded it with all regalia. The DG ISPR would have had a field day. His PR concert
would have been heard by aliens in Mars. But…all we heard …silence.
Look at this picture above. It is put out as an impact site. At first sight it
looks like a soldier standing there. Look again carefully. It is more like a
tree stump adorned as a soldier. This looks more like target in a shooting
range! Bingo. It then occurred to me that these three distinct patches devoid
of vegetation, were in all probability, firing areas for the merry inmates of
Balakot hill resort. They would be coming here down the hill to exercise their
weapons (grenades, rifles, IEDs) for education and entertainment. In fact, if
one analyses the surrounding areas further in a professional manner, the entire terror training apparatus will tumble out and start looking like the ideological Jihad
Infantry School which it actually is. Balakot was not exactly the Vatican where
Pope Hafiz Sayeed and Pope Azhar Masood gave their weekly sermons on universal
brotherhood.
Conversely,
by my logic the bombs could not have missed. I am now convinced about it. It
was a carefully planned operation. The target was chosen carefully. The Foreign
secretary clearly stated that it was an intelligence-based operation. Consider
this, if the targets were not hit, he could have well said that India has fired
bombs in the vicinity of a terror camp. The narrative could have been positioned as a
warning shot across the bows. That kind of a cover up would have achieved the
same strategic effect and avoided the tactical debate. Instead a carefully
considered statement was put out which clearly indicated that the intended
targets were hit. The Home minister has also stated that several mobiles were
active in the area which went silent after the attack in that location. Either
they were all hit, or they were well trained and scared enough to switch off
their mobiles. In both eventualities the strike is proven. If there were only
civilians in that area, the mobile phone chatter would have increased. That’s
what normally happens when disaster strikes you isn’t it?
Finally,
my Chief of Air Staff has said “if we plan to hit the target, we hit the
target”. There is no way he is incorrect. I will leave all of you with a poser.
We all know that the Spice Guidance Kit was used. We are all assuming that the
warhead is High Explosive and hence a big bang should have taken place. Who
ever mentioned that the warhead was High Explosive? Well there are other
warheads which will achieve severe effects after penetration of the roof tops,
without disturbing anything. Use your imagination. We are dealing with deadly
terrorists who were not exactly following Chatham House rules.
[3] “the difference between GPS ellipsoidal
height and orthometric height based on mean sea level. In northeastern
Pakistan, the difference is around 33 metres”
Very well written, General. Thanks for the explanation. A thing which I wanted to point out is that the SPICE 2000 is not some dumb bomb but uses scene matching algos apart from GPS, so they correct their trajectory even with/without GPS aid. I guess, the Aussie dimwits missed that point.
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Reasoned argument and concluding convincingly. Critics don't resort to prompt the subjects in pursuance of eliciting more information?
ReplyDeleteI believe my chief of air staff
ReplyDeleteCertain nay Sayers have this to say
ReplyDeleteThere is a simple error in calculation, btw. He states that if the approach angle was 60% and the miss was 33 meters, the missiles would have missed by a mere 17 meters, not over a hundred. But he doesn't see that the structure is on a hillside, and calculates for flat ground!
Would you like to rebut
Nay Sayers further state
ReplyDeleteThere is a basic error made by expert in the field. Here's the diagram he offers to 'prove' that the miss could not have been 100 meters. Notice he calculates for flat ground while the target was clearly on a steep hillside. Just change the angle of the topography and you get the 100 meter distance easily.
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ReplyDeleteThe images available from GeoEye-2 has a resolution of 31 cm per pixel. A GBU-15 type weapon will leave a hole visible in satellite images.
ReplyDeleteLastly, the change in foliage was detected. If the same place was used for weapons practice, then such change would not have been visible after 2 days.
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