This is a follow up of the first review @ https://palepurshankar.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-corona-combat-review-of-situation.html
General
We
are now into Day 10 of our lockdown. Midway point of Phase 1 of the battle with
the Chinese Virus. Approaching Phase 2 shortly. Critical times ahead. Time for
a review of the situation. The PM has spoken to us today. He has just told all
of something very important. India is with Indians and Indians are with India. Though
we are isolated we remain collected in this fight. Have faith. Economic
packages have been rolled out for the poor and for taking care of the common
man as well as the industry. At this point of time, I guess that is what the
government can do, and it has done that. If the need arises more will be done.
I am confident of that. At least for the needy. Overall, we are winning it
where superpowers, wannabe superpowers, have been superpowers are losing / lost
it. The collective response of India has been simply fantastic notwithstanding
the blips of some uncontrolled migrant movement, the Markaz fiasco and some
incidences of indiscipline. It is battle. Win some. Lose some. We are now into
the second half of the lock down and it is important to now seriously consider
options for Phase 2 of our battle.
Enemy
The
enemy has not changed course. The Chinese Virus is continuing its merry path of
infection. It has adversely affected many parts of the world. However there is
no evidence that it has mutated.
Own Forces
The
infection count has gone up in India. Presently it stands at 2567 infected, 72
deaths and 192 recoveries. The graph for the past 14 days is shown below. In
comparison to others, we are doing rather well. We are about two weeks behind USA
in the infection cycle. At that point of time, USA had about 25000 cases and
over 300 deaths. Two weeks back Russia had the same number of cases as us and
today it has 3548 cases. We are a week ahead in the cycle. The lockdown seems
to have its effect. The SWOT table has held good.
Co-Relationship
A co-relationship was carried out based
on several reports which came out. These pertained to Climate, Vaccination, Tropical
effect, Cambridge Univ study and a few others. These are highlighted below to
give a bird’s eye view so that the correct picture emerges.
Climatic Co-Relationship
Studies have come out suggesting that
with increase in temperature and humidity, the infection rates go down. This is
also borne out by empirical data. Infection and deaths are high in temperate
countries vis a vis tropical country. This is clear from the map below.
As per one of the studies infection
rates tend to drop off when absolute humidity is above 10 g/cubic m and temperatures
are higher than 17 deg C. (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3556998 ). The oncoming summer will satisfy both
these conditions almost all over India. The mean figures for the NCT and Tamil Nadu
are indicated in the graphics below. More
than 90 % of Chinese Virus cases have occurred in the red portion in the graphic below. India is well below and to the right of the red swathe. From a temperature perspective it appears that India might
have a low infection rate. However the summer seems to be coming in late. Hence,
I do hope and recommend some research lab in India to carry out some
temperature related study of this stupid Chinese Virus. It will be our
lifeline.
Tropical Co-relationship
A comparison of three tropical
countries was made – India, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. Mortality was focused
upon. Mortality tells us the ultimate price we must pay. In my opinion and that
of some researchers, death rates are a more robust measure. It gives us a better idea and has less
dependence on the levels of testing. To give you an idea, Saudi Arabia has gone
in for heavy testing. Mexico is nowhere there in testing. We are some where in
between. The infection, mortality and recovery rates are shown for an idea. India
remains ahead of the curve. It is also clear from the above mortality rates;
the infection is not as widespread as feared.
INFECTED
|
DEATHS
|
RECOVERED
|
|
INDIA
|
2543
|
72 (0.05/M)
|
191
|
MEXICO
|
1510
|
50 (0.5/M)
|
35
|
SAUDI ARABIA
|
1885
|
21 (0.6M)
|
328
|
Vaccination Co-Relationship
As per a study, BCG vaccination has
been reported to offer broad protection to respiratory infections. Empirical
data suggests that countries without / discontinued BCG vaccination programs
are having high infection and mortalities. Italy, USA, Lebanon, Nederland, Spain,
France, Belgium and Switzerland are in this bracket. Iran is also heavily hit.
However BCG vaccination commenced only in 1984. Any one over 36 years old is unprotected.
China had a universal BCG policy since the 1950’s. However during the Cultural
Revolution (1966-1976), vaccination programs were disbanded and weakened. Our BCG vaccination program is our Kavach.
Other Studies
One report has come out which suggests
that the public dirt and squalor in India might have given us far greater
general immunity to protect us against the virus. Another report suggests that
the Virus has mutated and the strain in India is less virulent. However these
studies are isolated without any corroboration. Hence, we should not lay too much
store by them.
Cambridge Study
The study carried out in Cambridge
Univ has been widely circulated in print, electronic and social media. (the graphics are below)However the study is about ‘Age-structured impact of social
distancing on the COVID-19 epidemic in India’. It is a mathematical model and
does not consider the variables outlined above. If the variables are factored
in some manner, then the results would probably be more encouraging. That is my
sense. IT NEEDS A PROPER STUDY. SOME ONE IN THE GOVERNMENT MUST DO AN
INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDY IMMEDIATELY. HIGH PRIORITY. However the significant
issues highlighted in the Cambridge study are as under: -
a. The study confirms the urgency of the lock down and
need for sustained application of mitigatory social distancing.
b. Indian homes
are the main channel of transmission since
three generations tend to stay in one house. There is significant contact
between children and grand-parents and hence the possibility of substantial internal
transmission.
c.
Maximum mortality rates will be in aged people and max transmission
rates will be in younger people. High transmission rates can be expected in work
areas where adults interact and in schools where children interact.
Analysis
The following issues are relevant: -
a. Most studies are preprint versions without a
peer review. They cannot be the basis for any definitive action individually.
b. The study by Johns Hopkins suggests that India
is likely to have a transmission rate of 1.8
c. When the
climatic, tropical and vaccination co-relationships are factored together some
sense emerges. That sense is that India will experience far lesser transmission
rates as compared to other temperate countries.
d. India has not got into widespread community
transmission stage yet. It is at the local transmission stage which ends in hot
spots. Hence hot spot management is important. Hot spots if left unattended
will turn into community transmission.
d. Transmission also depends on other factors including
testing, population (density), community structure, social acceptance / dynamics,
cultural ethos and governmental policies.
e. It hits urban
areas first and then goes into rural areas.
f. It can be
concluded that while we might have the advantage of relatively less
transmission rates, we need to focus on fundamental issues like social
distancing, testing, tracing, isolating, quarantining, urban areas, population
density reduction, public hygiene. Protection of the aged, infants and
vulnerable is important.
g. There is an undeniable need to protect the
aged from the young.
Phase2
: Key Lines of Operation
High Priority Operations. Operations which must be given highest
priority are as under: -
a. Isolation, Social Distancing and Enhance
Private and Public Hygiene. These are being enforced and practiced quite
well. Since I can talk of Chennai alone, I see a distinct improvement in these
aspects. The Chennai corporation is carrying out house to house spraying of insecticides
and disinfectants. Streets are being kept clean and garbage disposal has not
missed a step. A feedback on public forums in other cities and localities to
respective authorities should be done. It needs highlighting since it is the
first and main line of defense. If we falter in this aspect we are done.
b. Capacity Enhancement. Capacity
enhancement has commenced in earnest and must continue. Priority must be given
to medical equipment. Simply nothing more to say.
c. Testing, Tracing, Isolating and Treatment. The scope, pace and extent of this four-step activity
must be expanded. Testing rates are
still low. For a country of our size just 66000 tests till now are low. Some
speculative testing must be done across the board. At least 10-15% must be
speculative.
d. Protect the Protector. Highest
priority must be given to Doctors and all medical staff. Their protection is
very important for our survival.
Monitoring and Deployment of Armed Forces. There is no
substitute for having an ear to the ground. There is no substitute for
immediate response and action. There is no substitute for stiffening morale. The
monitoring, reporting and response system needs stiffening. An overlay skeleton
deployment of Armed Forces must be done immediately in all districts. The moment Armed Forces appear on the scene,
the civil administration gets galvanized and a degree of urgency and confidence
comes into the public.
Population
Control. Population control
measures must come into place. It includes migration control. Also some thought
must be given to decongest high density areas. This will be a long- term issue
and states must organize and facilitate this. When the lock down is lifted
reverse migration will start and that will have its own problems. Migration
will be a two-way affair.
Protect the Aged
from the Young. There must be a
special drive to protect the aged, infants and the infirm from the young. This must
be thought through at individual, societal and governmental levels. Especially
applicable to densely populated areas and gated communities. Extensive
advisories and door to door campaigning must commence for this.
Hotspot Management. Hotspots will appear and they will surprise
us. This Chinese virus preys on people’s minds and their frailties. Hotspots
will appear at national, state, district, city and town levels. Local representatives
must be on the ball. They will have a large role to play. That is why they have
been elected! SOP / guidelines must be
disseminated immediately on Hotspot management in a day or two. Anticipation is the key.
Security of Medical
Staff. Medical staff must be given highest
priority and protection. Protection can be given through detailment of security
guards. Additionally local social organizations and NGOs should be co-opted to
take responsibility and provide local assistance and coordination.
Awareness and Social
Acceptance. In a country as
diverse and complicated as India there is a major need for an extensive
awareness and strategic communication system to be put in place. Part of the
campaign should be to make the entire fight against the Chinese Virus into a
societal fight. That can be achieved through social acceptance which cuts
across caste and creed barriers.
Discipline. There are a lot of people in our country who
lack essential discipline. These people should be taken to task in an exemplary
manner either departmentally or judicially. Special mobile courts can be set up
for this job.
Options for Lockdown. At the outset, it is mentioned that lockdowns do not eradicate the infections. They are only postponed to flatten the curve and give time for our medical infrastructure. .Also they are bad for the economy and daily life. Hence we can not be on a lockdown mode always. Also , we must use lifting of lockdowns to build herd immunity. Herd immunity must be built in our young through controlled exposure. This can be achieved through a layered lifting of lock down. Based on
all issues factored in , the options for lock down are as under:-
Option
1. Complete lift of lockdown.
As evident in the Cambridge Univ study, the lock down if lifted fully will
invite the virus back in force, despite the onset of summer.
Option
2. Extending the Lockdown.
Extension of the lock down will need an iron hand to implement. The effect on
the economy will be drastic. The effect on the poor, marginal and infirm will be
severe. However taking all issues into consideration, if the situation does not
improve, we might have to get back to this. Hence this option should always be in
the background. However the public has
to explained and taken into confidence early.
Option
3. Partial Lifting of lockdown.
Taking into consideration all issues, it will be prudent to lift the lockdown layer
by layer in parts with an option to roll back or modify at any stage. It could
broadly be as under:-
Stage1. 4-5 days. Allow local movement in time
windows within the locality with essentials made available. Contiguous localities
to be closed. Enhanced move and availability of essentials.
Stage2. 4-5 days. Local
businesses to be opened. No intercity move. No public transport.
Stage
3. 7 days. Within city move. Limited
public transport. Intercity move of goods permitted by road by special permit.
Stage 4.
7 days. Limited Intercity travel.
Stage5.
Till end July. All move permitted. Exclusions to remain throughout.
Stage 6.
The harvest season is approaching. Prepare guidelines for it.
Lockdowns could be spatial in nature with
differing levels for different areas.
A Herd immunity program must commence as the lockdown is eased.
A Herd immunity program must commence as the lockdown is eased.
Exclusions. All activities where crowds can gather should
be banned. These would include public/ religious/ political/ social meetings,
congregations and conferences. Sports activities. Malls. Shopping centers,
Cinemas, Crowded Recreational Facilities. Tourism. Schools, Colleges incl
Coaching classes. Overcrowding of busses, trains, metros and all public transport
should be strictly avoided. This is only a suggestion. The list would need to
be more exhaustive.
Research. A
multidisciplinary research project should commence to analyze international
research on COVID and to commission and coordinate local research and data
collection. All IITs, IIMs, IISc and NITs, AFMC, AIIMS, JIPMER, must carry out
research on one aspect of COVID as they see fit. Each state must commission a
research in respect of their state problems. These research efforts must start immediately.
Some of them should be short term research to get local and national solutions
immediately.
Conclusion
The fight ahead is tough. Well. India is a tough country and we Indians will fight through it. This stupid Chinese Virus is a small Prick which we will get rid of . We just have to fight a coordinated battle. Look at it this way , All these great powers will learn how to battle from us. Of that I am sure. Let us have faith; the hidden power of India is being unleashed and it will teach everyone a lesson.
On a different note. There is a lot of pessimistic chatter about the Economy. Like the PM said - Jaan hai toh Jahan Hai. What is the worst case? Go back to pre 71 days. Get back into isolation. Grow as per Hindu Growth Rates - 3-4%. In our consumption driven economy, that is guaranteed. Actually that is not bad. If we can grow at 4% under the circumstances, we are damn Good.
Cheer Up India
We will break through.
and then
We will break out
not as an epidemic
but
from our bridge heads
Sorry for the typos and crooked graphics.
I am a man without a dog operation at present.
Simply brilliant !
ReplyDeleteSuperb Sir.
ReplyDeleteLet's jointly fight this pandemic with full might by staying at home.
ReplyDeleteExcellent Analysis and solutions offered.
ReplyDeleteReally comprehensively covered addressing all aspects and suggesting a reliable method in a positive manner. Trademark of the Army's operational planning capability and Nation centeredness
ReplyDeleteLucid, contextual (to India), focused. Well done. Sure we will breakout with speed, bounce all obstacles and reach our terminal objectives. Bash on.
ReplyDeleteMorning sir.
ReplyDeleteExcellent write up.
A serious suggestion. A COVID-19 warrior force must be formed at all levels, hospitals, doctors, healthcare, civil services, farming sector, etc.
It should include young guys and girls aged 18-30. This age group has very low mortality and must work in shift of one month work and 15 days rest away from family so as to maintain safety of their families.
This will ensure development of herd immunity with very low mortality.
Later on these people can be absorbed in jobs or can be given lump sum handsome package once epidemic is over.
Wow Sir
ReplyDeleteThe best part is your referring to Corona virus as Chinese Virus as we need to strengthen this word as recommended by Trump.
ReplyDeleteA timely analysis. We might be looking at another 14 days Lockdown seeing AirIndia tickets booking commencement wef 30 Apr.
Kudos.
Hats off to you, dear Shankar! An extremely dedicated, logical,comprehensive & well researched paper full of multi angle study! Congrats & kudos! It would be wrong on my part to but in or add any additional points.
ReplyDeleteHowever, without meaning to criticise, I must add that our combined efforts as a nation are being nullified by the willful acts of the Islamist Jehadies through serous abberations like MARKAZ (BJ) planned propaganda & actions to spread Covid 19 worldwide. The Govt, WHO, the world leaders & citizens at large must condemn this Islamist philosophy & make quick rules through Ordinances to arrest, quarantine,treat & then jail these rotton apples of our society. A unanimous decision on this issue must be taken immediately before this community holds the world to Ransome & destroys the very existence of mankind.
Lastly, I am indeed v v proud of you dear Shankar! Keep it up & press on regardless.
Nice analysis sir.
ReplyDeleteGood write up only a Fauzi can Analyse and put timely
ReplyDeleteSir, Very detailed and updated analysis throwing light on the positives. Need to be optimistic in these times of enhanced pessimism.
ReplyDeleteSir, wonderful analysis and very practical ideas
ReplyDeleteDear sir,
ReplyDeleteThank you so much for the detailed and informative write up. It actually opened up my mind.
Jay hind.
Thanks for an excellent analysis sir..
ReplyDeleteEnjoyed reading this..nice analysis.
ReplyDeleteFantastic step by step analysis. You have impressed India is leading the fight and with a more disciplined approach of all Indians, this is surely a prick which will pass sooner than later. Salutes to you.
ReplyDeleteVery pointed and purposeful analysis as usual sir! You should be a part of the Corona Fighters Task Force, if not lead it! We should take heart from the success of the lockdown rather than be discouraged by the spikes due to certain ill-informed and misguided group of people's irresponsible and reckless acts. Of course they do add to the complexity of an already gigantic problem of handling perhaps the largest population of the world through this crisis, certainly not helped by the naysayers of our great Democracy! Hats off sir! Raghunath
ReplyDeleteSir, very nice & detailed analysis!Thanks.
ReplyDeleteVery Comprehensive analysis sir. Thanks a ton.
ReplyDeleteFlag of Tajikistan
ReplyDelete