This article has been triggered by a thinking naval officer . He now manages one of L&Ts major units
Third of a series on the Sino Indian Standoffs.
Earlier
articles are
Across The Wall - Nationalism To Aggression
The Customary Stab
In 1962, Chou-en-Lai made that famous remark – Hindi Chini
Bhai Bhai and promptly invaded India. After Wuhan and Mahabalipuram Summits, Xi’s
China has transgressed the LAC to mark the 70th Anniversary of Sino
Indian ties. A customary stab in the
back? Untrustworthy as ever. However China has dealt its hand. It is our turn
now. We need to be astute; play tough and smart.
Unique Standoffs
The ongoing standoffs with China are unique. Non-tactical
with tents and vehicles lined up. Incursive flag marches to deliberately exhibit
force! Low threshold of violence. High stakes political messaging. Our analysis
and response must also be political. However most discussion is through the
military prism. The two most important questions are – why have they done this?
And what should we do? This is a detailed operation planned well in advance. We
need to retrace events to answer these questions.
The Chinese Intent
In April, as China recovered from Covid others were getting
stricken. Sensing an opportunity, it undertook aggressive action in South China
Sea – its front door. It paid off. By then nationalism has spiked, mask
diplomacy was strident, and the economy was witnessing revival green shoots. Emboldened,
it considered invading Taiwan. The time window too small. Meanwhile India was exercising
regional leadership and joining the ‘decoupling from China’ drive. Indications of imposing National Security Law
in Hong Kong started emanating from China. By end Apr there was a multi front
international backlash against China. China assessed that the situation could
go bad. It was important to single and marginalize India, the rising regional
competitor. The rear door needed locking. Hence it launched multi-pronged incursions
against India in Sikkim and Ladakh. It was timed to coincide with the worsening
pandemic situation in India (04 May- 46434 cases and rising). The Valley was heated
by Pakistan and Lipu-lekh Pass issue was raked up by Nepal in concert. Flowing
from this, the decipherable Chinese intent is as under:
Use Indian psychological sensitivity
towards the LAC and China to impose a pullback to make it focus inwards. Time
it with the worsening pandemic situation in India.
Impose military caution on India, by
threatening or securing identified vital area(s) . Close out retaliatory
options. Effect a permanent alteration of the LAC to own advantage.
Improve own defensive options and promote
offensive options for a later stage.
Force India to reconsider tilt towards USA
by focused incursion on the LAC. Follow it with protracted engagement through
bilateral mechanisms. Negotiate from a position of strength.
Extract trade concessions and break the
decoupling drive.
Sew up the rear door in a low-cost option to
face the situation on the front door as it unfolds.
Execute a low-key operation without
customary media hype. Avoid heightening anti-China nationalism.
The Current Status
Further action in Sikkim might not unfold due to evolving geopolitical situation. The standoffs in Ladakh are in stasis. The Galwan transgression is clearly in a hitherto-fore undisputed area and the main one. The others at Pangong Tso and Demchok are standard and fall back options. However the road to DBO is open. Much is being made that the Chinese are objecting to the infrastructure improvement. Specifically the DBO road. However this road has been under construction for 18 years. What is new?
As
per ‘China’s
National Defense in the New
Era’ (White Paper of Jul 19;)[1]
‘External separatist forces for “Tibet
independence” and the creation of “East Turkistan” launch frequent actions, to pose
threats to China’s national security and social stability’…… China’s national defense aims to deter and
resist aggression, safeguard national political security and oppose and contain
“Taiwan independence” in that priority. The next priority is “to crack down on
proponents of separatist movements such as “Tibet independence” and the
creation of “East Turkistan”. South China Sea etc are later! The
road from Darbuk to DBO leads to Karakoram Pass. It enables clear access to
Xinjiang/East
Turkistan. Eastern Ladakhis have ethnic
similarity with Tibetans. They are commonly referred to as Changtangi’s. Eastern
Ladakh with its improving infrastructure and ability to fuel both threats is critical.
The illegally ceded Shaksgam Valley and CPEC are near Karakoram Pass. India has
abrogated Article 370 and has started including Gilgit Baltistan as part of its
territory. Good cause for Chinese worry. It is not the military angle. But the
political one. The question is - why has China waited for 18 years? The
geopolitical situation has changed! Xinjiang and Tibet are annexed territories
with separatist movements. Support these movements and the dragon’s tail is on fire. Earlier no one considered this option
seriously with China in ascendancy. The new geopolitical situation makes this option attractive. See this in
the overall context of Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South China Sea.
Chinese strategic opportunism through incremental action aims to iron out its wrinkles.
Take a detour. Examine this greatly touted Chinese Civilization.
In the past century, China was dominated by
four leaders – Chiang kai Shek, Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, and Xi Jinping.
Apart from Deng the other three have presided over China’s worst disasters,
endeavored to unrealistically superfast track its progress and have led the
country into a period of isolation, unrest and/or conflict. So much for the
Middle Kingdom! Their track record is pathetic.
LEADER |
DISASTER |
PERIOD |
AREA
AFFECTED |
DEATH TOLL |
ECONOMIC
ACTIVITY |
POST DISASTER CONFLICT |
Chiang Kai-shek |
Famine |
1928-30 (ROC under Nationalist Party) |
Gansu,
Shaanxi, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Rehe, Chahar, Suyuan |
10 million |
Industrialization
of the South |
War with Japan. Civil war with CPC and purges |
Mao Ze Dong |
The Great Famine |
1958-62 (PRC) |
21
provinces Pan China. Worst hit Anhui, Sichuan and Guizhou |
36-45 million |
The
‘Great Leap Forward’ |
War with India, USSR, and Vietnam. Internal purges. |
Xi jinping |
COVID19 Pandemic |
2019-2020 |
Worldwide
|
6,161,851 infected and 371,023 deaths so far. |
Great
China dream and Superpower ambition |
Maritime conflict with Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, South
Korea, Japan, and USA. Conflict with India, Taiwan, Hong Kong. Internal internment of Uighurs. |
Mao’s Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution intended to achieve economic greatness in a fraction of time that it took other nations decades to accomplish. He created the largest manmade famine in history. Analysis indicates that the Great Famine had three attributes common to manmade disasters - omission, commission, and selective provision. Mao’s greatest omission was not to even acknowledge the famine or initiate remedial action (including seeking aid) for nearly three years. Mention of ‘Great Famine’ is taboo in China even till date. It is called a period of Natural Disasters. The worst acts of commission were abolishing private food production, establishing mismanaged communes, and exporting food during the famine when people were starving. They were driven to cannibalism. Yes Cannibalism[4]! Did you know that? Ruling elite and cities were selectively provided with food. The death toll? 45 million dead- equivalent to present day population of Argentina, Algeria, or Sudan. After that China was in international isolation till 1972. Despite the Great Leap failing, China went to war with India, Russia, and Vietnam in the ensuing period. It remained unstable internally with numerous purges. The Chiang Kai-shek period was only a shade paler since most action was internal to China.
Xi Jinping has bettered Mao. Deliberate
omission to regulate wet markets after the 2002/3 SARs outbreak, despite knowing
that these were sources of outbreaks. Once COVID outbreak was discovered in Nov
19, China deliberately omitted to acknowledge human to human transmission till
too late. Acts of commission? Plenty.
Cover up, public feasts in Wuhan, false reporting, pressurizing WHO, under
reporting cases, threats, coercion and much more. Allowing unchecked international
travel despite banning internal travel is a clear case of criminal selectivity.
The already cooling economy is now in a slippery slope. BRI in trouble. Economic and political isolation
looming ahead. Job losses / trimming
estimated at 600-800 million. Add 56 Million in rural poverty and 150 million
malnourished people[5].
We often forget that China is still not
fully developed. Social unrest is in the air. The ‘China Dream’ on
accelerated timelines is derailed. However Xi’s craving for strategic dominance
and superpower status has not diminished. Xi Jinping and his defense minister
talk of war preparation. China has antagonized a wide range of nations - USA, UK,
EU, Australia, India, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, S Korea,
and more. Its cup is overflowing.
Assessment
The Mao and Xi periods are eerily similar. The pandemic situation will keep China on
tenterhooks. As China enters a period of post pandemic instability,
the CCP will continue to externalize the situation and keep nationalism high
for survival. Change of guard is not ruled out. China will remain an aggressive
and untrustworthy neighbor. We should not ignore its historic schism. Talk of peaceful progress and mutual co-existence
is mere bunk. China’s front door will remain volatile.
Not a day passes when one does not hear of an incident in Hong Kong, Taiwan or South
China Sea. USAs proposal to restructure G7 group of nations without China is
significant. China will fudge its economy and statistics to show high growth to
its people to hype nationalism. However its internal problems might just
multiply. These incursions have been launched in a period of hope with great
expectation. That has changed. China has overplayed its hand. China will not go
back unless leveraged.
Own Situation
As we contemplate action, we
need to take stock of our own status. The pandemic situation is stable despite
daily spike in cases. The recovery rates are high, death rates are low and
hospital capacities are not overwhelmed. The economy has taken a huge hit.
However it is still in overall positive zone and is one of the major economies which
will stay that way. Our military in intact. Our global image and relevance are rising.
I am and will remain an optimist. India is rising. Make no mistake.
How Do We Deal
with an Unstable China?
The Chinese ploy of dividing
alliances and singling out nations is working. I see articles advocating peace
with China. We must live with our neighbors, let us not get caught in a war
between powers kind. Pakistan and China
are our neighbors who are colluding to destroy us. The detour into some grisly history
was to prove that China will remain an unstable troublesome adversary.
There are a whole range of
options available to India. Long to short terms in a wide span- military,
political, economic, cultural, religious, and scientific. The leverages are
manifold. We need to have a well thought out, comprehensive and graded
response. No point being emotional, reactionary, or jumpy about it. China will
react. So be it. One thing for sure, the faster we de couple from China the
better. Even if we take a decade to do so – we start yesterday. The best option?
Attain self-sufficiency. Our biggest weapon is our people. It needs political will
and sagacity to exercise these options. China perceives and expects vitriol
from people but relies on government and greedy Indians to toe its line. Reverse
that.
To give a glimpse of specific
options. Militarily we can evict intruders, cut them off or do a counter
intrusion. We can resort to an economic boycott, weaponize trade or people’s
sentiment. We could export religion and sow seeds of independence in Tibet and
Xinjiang. We could get into alliances, like the QUAD, or form new ones to
counter China. We can deal with them bilaterally or multilaterally. One can
write a thesis on options.
As Indians we need to
understand that while China has started a game of GO, we must
say NO GO and start kabaddi which we are good at. Play to our strengths and his
weakness. Prepare for the long haul.
This article is an extension of all my recent articles
on China and how to deal with it. The links are given below:-
https://www.gunnersshot.com/2020/05/china-first-second-and-thirdcannot.html
https://www.gunnersshot.com/2020/05/tracks-changing-for-indian-armed-forces_16.html
https://www.gunnersshot.com/2020/05/china-unrestricted-war-and-restricted.html
https://www.gunnersshot.com/2020/05/the-chinese-checkers-by-lt-gen-p-r.html
https://www.gunnersshot.com/2020/04/corona-chinese-chernoybyl-by-lt-gen-p-r.html
https://www.gunnersshot.com/2020/01/war-waging-ways-by-lt-gen-p-r-shankar-r.html
https://www.gunnersshot.com/2019/12/are-we-ready-across-himalayas.html
https://www.gunnersshot.com/2019/12/chinese-threat-reality-check.html
https://www.gunnersshot.com/2019/11/a-sino-indian-conflict-matrix-by-lt-gen.html
https://www.gunnersshot.com/2019/11/follow-up-thoughts-on-sino-india.html
[1]
Down load it @ http://www.andrewerickson.com/2019/07/full-text-of-defense-white-paper-chinas-national-defense-in-the-new-era-english-chinese-versions/
[3]
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/01/china-great-famine-book-tombstone
and https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1127087/
[4]
https://www.nytimes.com/1997/02/05/books/horror-of-a-hidden-chinese-famine.html and
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world/china-suppresses-horrific-history-of-cannibalism/story-6hbxXBtvWf9LSIS0yaYlIM.html
and https://www.refworld.org/docid/52e0d5e35.html
and https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/01/china-great-famine-book-tombstone
and many more
Well put Sir, well put indeed. The analysis is worthy of a strategic thought leader.
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese strategies are indeed straight out of Go and perhaps the right answer as you put it is to play no-Go/Kabaddi :-) with them.
Let us accept the facts that: we are at war with China, have been at war for a while now (possibly since the 90s), stop pussyfooting and ACT accordingly.
Proud of you Sir, it is people like you who make me proud of this country.
Respected Sir,
ReplyDeleteAs ever, an extremely insightful analysis of the prevailing situation from both the sides (China & India).
The options are plenty, but rightly mentioned that the calibrated response with will is required. A bold step is a must to tilt the equation in our favour.
Best Regards
Sanjeev Chopra
Like the previous article from General Shankar, this piece is also a refreshingly original and very well reasoned analysis. We need to proceed along multiple tracks, as identified by the author and also continue to explore more, to keep the dragon at bay, without showing signs of weakness, politically or militarily. Needless to say that, militarily, we need to be prepared for hostilities. Anything short of it will automatically be taken care of. Easier said than done. But, while on the one hand, we must continue to make every possible effort to resolve the crisis, on the other hand, simultaneous, serious and well calibrated preparations by the armed forces for hostilities, is a must.
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