Also published @ Page 6 of The Daily Guardian e paper ( https://thedailyguardian.com/e-paper/13-july-2020/), @ https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/chinas-multi-faceted-insidious-and-indirect-moves-to-overwhelm-india , @ https://missionvictoryindia.com/chinas-future-moves-insidious-and-indirect/ and @https://www.cenjows.in/article-detail?id=330
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Current Scenario
Earlier,
I had written that the Chinese
will start talking peace once the odds are against them. The standoffs had
only two outcomes. They end at a table and China withdraws to resume as an
unmanned LAC or we end up with a manned LAC. We are heading generally in that
direction.
China
tried to force its way in Doklam. It was surprised by our reaction. A face-saving exit was given. The larger
message was that it can be blocked. China did not forget the sleight. This time
it came with an elaborate plan which backfired. Geopolitically they stand isolated. Strategically, Sino-Indian
relations have chilled. Another generation will be in the “Hindi Chini Bye Bye”
mode. China’s untrustworthiness has spurred and motivated India to take a shot
at global leadership. It landed itself in an avoidable two front situation and
has driven the Indo US relationship closer. Tactically, Chinese were caught out
in Galwan and suffered casualties which they cannot declare. Their Navy could
not get a sniff at the IOR. There are going to be economic ramifications. ‘Loss
of Face’ will emerge. All this will reflect in their aggressive behavior hence
forth. Having been stymied twice, they
will have learned a lesson – never head butt India.
The Search for the Alternatives
China’s
blind aim is to be a superpower. It must prove its superiority over India first
to have a sniff at that. PLA cannot overwhelm India across the Himalayas. PLAN does
not have the capability to poke out beyond the South China Sea. Political, economic,
and diplomatic reverses will not matter much. Cyberspace, information / influence
operations have their limitations. China will get back at us militarily. If the
direct route is no more an option, then it must be the insidious route.
China
has realized that force does not work against India. It has already changed tack and is making insidiously
indirect moves. To become a superpower, China
must show India down decisively in the next confrontation. It must also ensure
that India stays fixated on the Tibetan Border. This ensures that the Indian
Navy does not expand to hinder it in the IOR. Economic and BRI revival are critical to
superpower ambitions. These are presaged on the fact that China must have
freedom of maneuver and a degree of
domination in the Indo Pacific region.
So,
what are the indirect routes? A multidirectional and multifaceted threat manifesting
through Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. Each country gives an option
to pose a different challenge for India. The main issue is that each country
allows China to militarily threaten us at our doorstep without a fight to embarrass
the Indian Armed Forces at least cost.
Insidious and Indirect Routes
Bhutan. Existing territorial disputes between Bhutan and China were in the
Western and middle sectors at Doklam, Jakarlung and Pasamlung (see map). In its
latest gambit, China has laid claim on the Sakteng sanctuary. It is 100 km deep into
Bhutan. It is contiguous to the Tawang
Tract. Chinese will claim it as part of South Tibet based on manufactured
facts. One way of looking at it is that Sakteng comes into play only when the
Tawang Tract is ceded to China. The other way to look at it is that Sakteng
turns Tawang defences. If China overwhelms Bhutan and forces its way to Sakteng
through Trashigang, then it is knocking at Nyukamdung, Dirang and Sapper. This
is a mirror of what happened in 1962 (see map). A combination of Doklam and
Sakteng poses severe military threats to India.
Nepal. While Indo Nepal ties have gone downhill, Sino Nepal ties have gone
uphill. Successive communist governments in Nepal have gravitated to China. Presently,
China has almost complete sway on Nepalese politics. It is abundantly clear
that the Lipulekh Pass issue was synced by China through Nepal. With China
increasing its footprint in Nepal, enhanced military cooperation and joint
action should not be ruled out. A minimalistic Sino – Nepalese threat is to the
Lipulekh Pass. China could assist Nepal to grab their claimed areas along the
Limpiyudhara (see maps). In a maximalist
threat the Chinese could be given passage by Nepal to appear along the Terai
region. The Insidious part is that Nepal can create trouble in the Terai region
to destabilize India.
Myanmar. China is seeking to push through the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor . The project envisages road and rail connectivity between Kunming and Kyaukpyu via Mandalay. It involves the multi-billion-dollar deep seaport in Kyaukpyu which gives China a strategic opening on to the Bay of Bengal and eastern part of Indian Ocean Region. Myanmar has so far not fallen into the debt trap. To pressurize and destabilize Myanmar, China has recently started arming rebel groups. Myanmar’s Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has sought international help to ward off the threat. If this call is not heeded, China will expand its operations. This is harking back to 60s/70s when Naga insurgency was fomented by China. It can also pose a direct military threat from the East circumventing the Himalayas. Such an option enables direct air and logistics support to any offensive from the mainland.
Pakistan. A new dimension of
Sino Pak relations is surfacing. The Pakistan Army and a Chinese Company have
entered a 30: 70 funding agreement for the Diamer Bhasha Dam project in Gilgit
Baltistan. It is unique. Pakistan Army is funding the project and not the
Government. The supra national role of the Pakistan Army is now official. It
would be fair to assume that such an equation will come forth in converting Gwadar
into a Chinese Naval Base. This has implications. Pakistan is immersed in debt to China which it cannot repay. Pakistani
sovereignty is hereafter compromised permanently. It is already a vassal state of China with
large pockets owned by the latter. As a result, Pakistan Army will do China’s
bidding against India. Hence the future Chinese threat from the west will not be a Pakistani one but a Chinese
one.
Sri Lanka and Maldives. China has already debt trapped Sri Lanka and has a 99 year lease on the
Hambantota Port. As Sri Lanka gets into a greater debt trap, its sovereignty
will erode further. Hence its ability to resist China in conversion of
Hambantota into a naval base will weaken with time or with a change in the Sri
Lankan politics. In the same breath a similar scenario could unfold in
Maldives. China could end up with two naval bases in the guts of the Indian
Ocean.
Overall Scenario. A look at the map indicates that in future China is
creating multiple options of manifesting a land-based threat from POK,
Limpiyudhara, Doklam, Sakteng or Mandalay. Recent Chinese moves are insidious and clear pointers to
the future. A naval threat could also emanate from Gwadar, Hambantota, Maldives
and Kyaukpyu.
These threats could be projected through the PLA, Pakistan Army and/or in
conjunction with forces of countries (willing or unwillingly). This is in
addition to a threat which PLA can directly pose along the LAC. While some of these
threats lack credibility presently, China is very clearly moving towards making
it so. The options available to China will multiply in future. The naval threat
was always visualized in some form. However the potency of the land-based
threats is rising fast and clearly visible. It will be foolish to ignore it. Afterall,
even in the current crisis, China did play the Pakistan and Nepal card
unambiguously. It is not necessary to play all cards. A couple of direct and a
couple of indirect options
will imbalance us.
Response Options
It would be an understatement to say that our diplomatic,
political, economic, and military responses need to be multifaceted. Each
neighbor needs a separate approach. It is to our overall discredit that we have
let things come to this state. While Pakistan might be a lost cause we have to take
steps to retrieve the situation in other countries. There is a strong case to
rework defense arrangements with Bhutan and Myanmar. In the case of Sri Lanka
and Maldives, the effort must be to control damage and ensuring that democratic
forces survive. Nepal needs an urgent political solution to rectify matters. We
should also not lose sight of Bangladesh, which is seeing increased Chinese
investment and dependence. In all cases we need to see as to how our armed
forces can enhance defense and other cooperation with these countries less
Pakistan. I remember Mark Tully once remarking that India being the biggest
country in this region, needs to be more magnanimous with its neighbors.
Capability development needs to focus not only in thwarting
the direct threat from the Chinese but as to how to contend a military threat
developing through third party countries as also strengthening them. It is not
always necessary to think of conventional methods. Asymmetric options need to
be developed.
Importantly, in my opinion, it is time for us to take this
contest across the LAC. For far too long, we have appeased China and let it do what it wants to do. India
must seriously start exploring possibilities to put China on the backfoot in
Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan. It is also time to take political steps
towards POK, Gilgit Baltistan, Baluchistan and the Durand line. India cannot be
supine in the wait, watch and react mode while China and Pakistan make merry. As
a first step can India claim the Mansarovar area with the same religious logic
that Tawang is claimed as South Tibet. Let
us take the battle into China’s court. There are plenty
of options outlined in an earlier article,
it just needs clear headed political determination to execute them.
Very well explained.
ReplyDeleteExcellent analysis, as always
ReplyDeleteWonderful analysis Sir
ReplyDeleteProfoundly incisive! India needs to allow China to withdraw as per its wishlist, like despite vacating much of the area, its troops are still at/near finger 4. Once equipped with the military hardware in pipeline, it should contest Chinese continuing violations post 22 June Corps Commander's agreements and probe Chinese future moves by say August. If China dilly-dallies, with US Elections approaching, India should force China for two front war with US on its Eastern flank in favoou of Hongkong and/Taiwan, ofcourse it has to be fine tuned diplomatically on a regular basis. Faced with this twin threat, China is going to crumble as its internal inconsistencies may result into voilent confrontations, with PLA engaged in two fronts, unable to manage those. This will force a change in the present CCP or fragmentation of China into 4-6 nations. The world may thus contain the hegemonic designs of China and create a more peaceful Asia.
ReplyDeleteVery well researched paper
ReplyDeleteRight on the money. Now we need to reach this to the defence policy and decision makers. Very important to follow up.
ReplyDeleteIt’s time to take clear sides. You can’t ride two boats simultaneously. Get closer to democratic countries ie USA, Europe, Australia etc. Get into all kinds of pact and be an active partner . Make QUAD effective and a force to reckon with. More such pact you get in more deterrent you create and our neighbors will fall in line too.
ReplyDelete