In an article on 5G I outlined how China is waging Multi
Domain Warfare (MDW) with Huawei as one of its Trojan Horses.
It evoked great response. It also evoked great concerns from some right-thinking
people like: -
I agree with the threat posed and
China's game. My apprehensions….it will be BACK TO BUSINESS AS USUAL
once the situation normalizes. In the ICT sector nothing gets done which is not
made in China or has Chinese parts. Who will fight the L1?
While the PLA has a finger in everything, we do
not even have control over the DRDO, HAL, Ordnance Factories or even the MES or
the Cantonment Boards.
5G allows China to hide in plain sight.
The borders are moving to our homes and Smartphones. 5G and IOT allow Chinese
to trigger cyber-attacks from millions of vulnerabilities.
I share their concerns. My worry is also ‘BACK TO BUSINESS
AS USUAL’. At the first whiff of normalcy, the bureaucracy will start the familiar
game of snakes and ladders. One step forward and many backwards. The Chinese
believe in two steps forward and one step back. Some contrasting similarity! Even
our PM is said to have remarked that he will not allow our bureaucrats to waste
his second term. Telling thoughts.
However. The Virus and Galwan have changed the ‘USUAL’.
Everyone understands the Virus. It threatens our lives and lifestyle. So change
is forced to a new normal. However the
Chinese threat has seeped under the carpet. Galwan has exposed the poison
underneath. What is happening in Ladakh is only a trailer. There is a sinisterly
dark multidimensional war being waged against India. This will not abate. After
the USA,
India threatens Chinese superpower dreams. That is why China is in military
conflict with one and heading into war with another. China will initiate conflict and war despite sleeping in our
bed to make trade and commercial profit. Curtailing India will be one of its key
national objectives. It will be aggressive and assertive. Whether the assertiveness stems from opportunism, imperiousness,
reactivity or insecurity is immaterial. Hence understanding the MDW concept and its
Chinese manifestation is important to move to the new ‘UNSUAL’.
Multi
Domain Warfare - Overview
The
Concept. The Chinese
practice the concept of ‘Unrestricted Warfare’. This led the US Army to
adopt the Multi Domain Operations (MDO) approach. However MDO is operational
and too narrow when applied at a national/international level. A wider understandable
concept like MDW is needed to encapsulate the dark approaches of China in
conducting war. Clausewitz’s dictum that “war is politics by other means”
and conversely “politics is war by other means” encapsulates the
MDW spectrum. It can be defined as conventional and/or non-conventional war carried
out by state, non-state or state sponsored actors using hard and soft power during
war, conflict or peace situations by day or night for specified national
outcomes in various interacting and overlapping domains. These multiple domains are represented in the graphic.
Military
Civil Fusion. A leading
tool for execution of MDW is “Military-Civil Fusion,” (MCF) . The colonial system gave
birth to MCF. It was refined by USA. However China has taken it to a sinister
level. The CCP is at the apex of MCF. The troika underneath - Government, PLA
and Civilian firms are meshed seamlessly. They front each other interchangeably
assisting the CCP in retention or capture of power. Barriers between China's
civilian industry and military - in research, development and trade have been
eliminated. Firms like Huawei, ZTE and Bytedance are Trojan Horses of CCP. Their
State-Owned Enterprises and Financial system are the main actors. MCF focuses
on dual use technologies like quantum computing, big data, semiconductors, 5G,
advanced nuclear technology, aerospace technology, and AI. The technologies are
developed/acquired legally or illegally. Chinese methods include investment in
private industries, talent recruitment programs, academic and research
collaboration, forced technology transfer, intelligence gathering, and outright
theft. State financing and subsidies are heavy. The core dual use areas are Artificial
Intelligence to give them an asymmetrical advantage in warfare, New Materials
for high-value industries like aerospace, Energy Storage which is an
essential ingredient of battlefield stamina. (China controls the global Li Ion
battery chain), Communication which is the lifeblood of societies and
militaries and Nuclear Power to control the future nuclear export
markets. MCF vastly expands the Chinese economic basket, converts PLA into a technologically
advanced military and enables China to conduct a ceaseless MDW. Let us now see
as to how China is waging a dark all pervasive Multi Domain Warfare against
India.
Conventional
Domains
Premeditated
expansionist aggression through conventional Air, Land and Sea domains is
manifest in Ladakh and South China Sea. This will continue. India must be
prepared for direct Chinese aggression in future also. Simultaneously India
needs to prepare for indirect and insidious
moves through Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, and
Bangladesh. Pakistan and Nepal will remain willing catspaws of China. Sri Lanka
(Hambantota), Pakistan (Gwadar) and Myanmar (Kyaukpyu) are
the seaborne manifestations in waiting.
Disruptive
Technology Domains
The
disruptive technology domains are now coming to fore. Military strategists and Government
‘Pundits’ need to understand it better to develop counter strategies.
Space. Space technology is an investment. A
lot of space exploration is the search for liquid hydrogen to power fuel cells
and attain energy dominance. The quest for new materials must be seen in this
context. The ability to have a vibrant military and civilian aerospace ecology
is an enterprise activity. China’s MCF plays a huge part in this enterprise. The
spinoffs are dual use Satellite and Anti-Satellite technologies. In Ladakh,
space technology supported their influence ops to beam a Chinese map on Pangong
Tso into our bedrooms. Dicey.
Cyberspace and
Electromagnetic Spectrum.
Chinese exploitation of these interactive and interdependent domains is well
established. It has carried out numerous cyber-attacks against India, USA and
Australia. Its quest for AI, Communication and ICT technologies through MCF has
multiple contexts. Unbridled Profits. Control over governments
through communication and social media surveillance. Intelligence collection.
Military prowess. These two key
domains underpin Chinese domination in other domains.
Nuclear Domain. The nuclear domain is not confined to nuclear
war. It extends to proliferation for geopolitical control through Pakistan, N
Korea and now probably Iran. A dangerous
nuclear grouping. It is also about use and denial of nuclear energy. Chinese
efforts to block India from Nuclear Suppliers Group is
essentially denial of nuclear raw material. It delays India’s efforts at
achieving critical mass in the Thorium cycle, which is our path to strategic
independence.
Dark Power
Domains
Chinese ‘Three war’ strategies of Public Opinion, Legal
and Influence ops are dark power domains. They exploit the power of information
and data in a continuum. The CCP conveys political intent through these domains
and prepares ground for other domains to succeed.
Public
Opinion. China weaponizes public opinion by manipulation, misinformation,
sowing dissent, and discord in democratic societies. It shapes domestic and
international public opinion blatantly through media, military experts, and
political parties. A
halo is built to make the Chinese look ‘Ten Feet Tall’ and invincible.
Legal Status. China always portraying itself as a victim while blatantly violating
the international rules-based order. Legal justification, through mythical history,
is standard. Others are accused of breaking rules. Most importantly, the legal loopholes
of democracies are exploited. Target countries are left with no choice with but
to accept the Chinese fait accompli.
Influence
Operations. Chinese narratives are being built through
pliant politicians, media, and
officials. Think tanks, academic institutions, workers unions, industry, and even
government is penetrated to influence thought and decision. It will
continuously exploit Indian plurality and fissures in the political and
bureaucratic firmaments. China will ensure that either a wrong decision
or one that favors it is taken.
Traditional Domains
Economy,
Diplomacy and Politics/ Geopolitics are traditional domains. Energy and
resource exploitation are historical endeavors by expansionist nations. As China
heads into isolation we need to remember - an isolated and poor China was
always troublesome and expansionist. A rich and ambitious China will be even
more so.
Political. China
is a political bully eternally threatening and coercing everyone. This will
continue. PLA’s intrusion when Xi Jinping was visiting India was a premeditated
hostile political move. The current military aggression in Ladakh is also a well-planned
political move. A nation which can declare Dalai Lama as a terrorist and
support Masood Azhar displays political perversion. Expect a politically hostile
China which will interfere in our internal affairs at every turn. The Pakistani threat is peanuts in comparison.
Economy. China
makes countries economically intertwined and dependent upon it. Thereafter it
coerces and threatens them to defer to its political requirement. Many countries are subject
to such threats including the USA. China undermines the International financial
system to debt trap weaker nations. India’s commercial dependency on China can
be weaponized any day now. That will definitely force India into the next ‘UNUSUAL’
.
Diplomacy. The Chinese
‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy has been loutish to say the
least. It seeks to undermine the target country’s sovereignty unambiguously. It
happened in Australia recently and we could
expect it to happen anytime.
Energy and Resource Exploitation. A rising China is thirsty for resources and
energy. It is sucking out mineral and oil resources from Africa through the BRI
and debt traps. India must expect
trouble. We have spurned all their schemes.
Health Domain
China
has weaponized health through the Wuhan Virus. It let the Virus out deliberately.
Mask Diplomacy was used to threaten countries which did not toe its line. The recently
launched Health Silk Road as an alternative to the BRI is a new front.
The New Unusual
China
is waging a 360-degree MDW systematically against India. This will continue whether
China becomes a superpower or not. China’s comprehensive national power
outweighs India’s. We therefore have two
choices. We partner with China or not. Partnering China means that we will become
Pakistan Mark 2 eventually. That is not acceptable to any self-respecting
Indian. Hence, we must contest China comprehensively. Resultantly India must build
its strength across all domains. Business as usual is no more an option. INDIA MUST MOVE TO BUSINESS AS
UNUSUAL.
India
can thwart China presently. However it cannot contain China on its own. As per our national policy we cannot be part of an alliance.
Hence,
we must BE PART OF A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP. It could be the QUAD or QUAD
plus or any other with a focused geopolitical, military, and economic agenda. Partners
need not even come to each other’s direct aid except in dire emergency. A
differentiated but synergistic approach based on common intelligence,
capacities, and purpose is good enough.
An
economic revival necessitates grasping opportunities. We are strong in ICT and
auto sectors. We can attract relocation in these sectors and build around them.
If tech companies are quitting
Hong Kong,
they should be attracted here. Similarly in other sectors. Reforms are needed for
attracting relocation and for Atma Nirbharta to take off. China respects strength. Hence the need to strengthen our Armed Forces
in certain core areas is paramount. We need to start our own version of MCF. Communication,
AI, Cyberspace, aerospace, space, and energy are starters. All in all BUSINESS
AS UNUSUAL must be the order of the day. If Government functionaries dither
and prevaricate, then India lies exposed. Simple as that.
Lastly,
the Chinese Communist Party is an ideology. It cannot be defeated by kinetic
means. It must be defeated by counter ideas and ideology - Religion, democracy,
or ethnicity. Mythologically, Ravan’s empire started collapsing after Hanuman carried
the battle across to Lanka and set it afire. China has
four Lankas – Tibet, Xinjiang, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Time to set some or all of
them on fire.
Very well articulated paper. I hope people at right place take cognizant of the threats
ReplyDeleteWow. Shankar, as usual, amazing in depth analysis of the current scenario. Am sure someone sane in the right place, who reads your article would definitely work on it.
ReplyDeleteAn absolute gem. Compliments.
ReplyDeleteIt is an all out war. We too should counter China with a no holds bar policy.
ReplyDeleteAs a very first, the entire country.....politicians, media and the population should join hands in the national effort to win the perception battle. Other than that our nation is talented enough to face up to all other challenges.
Our only weakness is internal fissures. The problem is not about a differing view but the efforts to undermine the national strength or to demoralise or make our establishment, over cautious or defensive....in other words weak. Our plurality should be our strength and not handicap. We must differ, argue, protest and even fight, but not when we are threatened by an outsider.
I loved the conclusion of the four Lankas. Time to seriously contemplate and join forces in the
ReplyDeleteInternational anti China gang. It is also time to moblise troops as more action is likely to take place before the snow makes the going tough. Ghanti or Thali ke din gaye. China only understands when they face the barrel of a gun .It is going to be a long Haul .congrats for penning a thoght provoking essay
Well analysed
ReplyDeleteNicely articulated sir.. MDW can be at d best be an enabler or force multiplier.. without bots on ground washing war in multiple domains will achieve little.. the weakest link in chine is it's armed forces, of this bubble is made to burst and 10ft soldiers r reduced to under 4ft, MDW could lose its relevance..
ReplyDelete