Times Have
Changed
Abrogation of Article 370 has changed the Indo-Pak landscape in toto. It has irreversibly
cemented J&K as an integral part of India like other states. It has brought
into focus the future of illegally occupied POK and Gilgit-Baltistan. The statements of Shri Rajnath Singh that further dialogue with Pakistan will be on POK has deep
ramifications.
Maharaja Hari Singh acceded the complete
state of Kashmir including Gilgit, Baltistan, Kashmir, Jammu, Leh and Ladakh to
India in 1948. These areas were never acceded to Pakistan. Were they? Hence all
this is Indian Territory. On the other hand, Pakistan signed a standstill
agreement with the ruler but broke it and invaded Kashmir[1].
Pakistan occupied POK by force. Gilgit and Baltistan were
amalgamated into Pakistan through British perfidy. Pakistan has consistently denied
treating these areas as its provinces[2].
These areas have been in illegal occupation by Pakistan for seven decades. However,
times and conditions have changed. A revisit is warranted.
POK and Gilgit-Baltistan have
been governed through extra judicial and legislative mechanisms outside the
Constitution of Pakistan. People of POK and Gilgit-Baltistan have been consistently
told that they are not an integral part of Pakistan. Article
257 of the 1973 Constitution of Pakistan states, "When the
people of the State of Jammu and Kashmir decide to accede to Pakistan, the
relationship between Pakistan and the State shall be determined in accordance
with the wishes of the people of that State." However, it does not
specifically mention that the regions of the state that it presently occupies
are part of its territory. [3]
In September 1994, the Supreme
Court held that since the Gilgit-Baltistan region was not part of Pakistan, the
judicial matters pertaining to it were outside the purview of the Pakistani
courts[4]. Ipso
facto Gilgit-Baltistan is legally not part of Pakistan. POK and Gilgit-
Baltistan whether they were a single territorial unit (earlier) or
bifurcated (now), have been administered under special Councils headed by
the Prime minister of Pakistan without representation in the Pakistan national assembly[5] or recourse to the supreme judicial processes
of the land. Simply put, POK and Gilgit-Baltistan are not an integral part of
Pakistan. They were acceded to India. Hence, these Indian Territories should be
taken back. Time to start that process.
We could commence the process after Kashmir stabilizes so that we do not bite more than
we can chew. However, the Kashmir problem is seven decades old and will take
some time to stabilize. Retaking POK and Gilgit- Baltistan will also take time.
They need not be serially linked but can be pursued in parallel. The
momentum and initiative are with us. We should not soft pedal. Commencing the
process will change the narrative. Controversial and illegal
projects like CPEC and illegal cessation of the Shaksgam Valley by Pakistan to
China will be revisited. A wedge should be driven between Pakistan and China to
reduce their collusivity against India.
Pakistan
Occupied Kashmir
POK
covers an area of 13,297 square km with a total population of about 4.5 million. It has
borders with Pakistan’s Punjab (South), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (west), Gilgit and
Baltistan(north) and Jammu and Kashmir (East). It is about 16 to 60 km in width and
400 km in length. It has high
hills to the North petering down to plains of the South like on own side of LOC . The population is
mostly Muslim. Majority population is Punjabi and not Kashmiri due to a planned
demographic inversion. It also resulted in sectarian inversion with Shias
rendered into a minority. There is very little cultural affinity to people in
India anymore. Agriculture is the main occupation with very little industry.
The literacy rates are better than rest of Pakistan. There is a sizable expat
population which is settled abroad, largely in UK.
Though termed as ‘Azad’ Kashmir, there is hardly any ‘Azadi’
for even a bird to fly freely. Pakistani authorities allow very few freedoms. For three decades it has been a recruiting, training, logistical and launching
base for state sponsored terror groups. It has a high density of Army deployment. Land
ownership by retired military personnel is high. The 2005 earthquake resulted
in a lot of Internally Displaced People(IDPs) who have been neglected [6]. Sub-surface simmers with unrest, disaffection and discontent [7].
Nationalist groups demand independence. Their leaders, driven out of the
country, operate from abroad. There are regular anti-Pakistan protests on water
and environmental issues.[8] There are protests on enforced disappearances
like elsewhere in Pakistan[9].
Clashes with security forces take place[10].
However, people in this region might not display much affinity to India since
they have been at the receiving end in three wars and in cross LOC duels. This
was evident in the treatment of Wg Cdr Abhinandan when he bailed out in POK. One
must be sensitive with the population to win them over. If the tabloid reports in
Indian media are to be believed Imran Khan was confronted with slogans of ‘Niazi
Go Home’ and ‘Kashmir Banega Hindustan[11]’.
That is ominous and the ground might be shifting.
Gilgit- Baltistan
(Balwaristan)
Gilgit-Baltistan shares borders
with POK (South), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (West), Wakhan Corridor (North), Xinjag
(East and NE) and Leh (SE). It is also known as Balwaristan. It encompasses an
area of approx. 73000 sq km with a population of about 2 million. Literacy rate
is high. Its topography is like Leh. High wind-swept plains and snow-clad
mountains. It is in the lap of the greatest mountain ranges of the world –
Hindukush, Pamirs, Karakorams and Himalayas. Agriculture and Mountaineering
Tourism dominate the economy. Skardu is connected to the Leh region through the
Indus and Shyok waterways. The Karakoram highway runs from Islamabad, Gilgit, Kunjerab
Pass and Kashgar. This is the backbone of the CPEC also. The Indus collects
most of its waters in Gilgit – Baltistan. In fact, water security of Pakistan hereafter will be at the expense of Gilgit and Baltistan. It is an area of significant strategic
importance. It gives India a direct overland access to
Afghanistan (Wakhan Corridor) and the Central Asian Republics.
 |
| This is an old map to give you a general idea. Roads and alignments would have changed |
‘GILGIT-BALTISTAN is a simmering cauldron of
discontent. The continued deprivation of political, economic and human rights
is driving the people of this strategic northern end of Pakistan to desperation’.
[12] Initially people of this area wanted to be part of
Pakistan as its province. This was denied to them. In 2009, the Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and
Self-Governance Order gave them some rights, but were rolled back by the new
Gilgit-Baltistan Order in 2018. Deprived of constitutional rights, they are now aggrieved. It
is a tribal area. The population was predominantly Shia. Though it is still a
Shia majority region, a huge Sunni Influx has been encouraged; which upset the ethnic
balance and gave rise to sectarian strife[13]
[14].
Gilgiti and Balti soldiers have sacrificed their lives for Pakistan without
recognition. Poor treatment of N Li soldiers in the aftermath of the Kargil War
is not forgotten. The Karakoram Highway pollutes the environment. It has also
brought in drugs and guns. Land acquisition for CPEC is without due
compensation for the community, since it is customarily “common land”. CPEC is also depriving them of livelihood due
to influx of Chinese labor. People are anti-CPEC and anti-Chinese. The area has been kept underdeveloped deliberately and in abject poverty. it is said that “Local wisdom dictates that when it suits
Pakistan, GB is a formal part of the country; and when it suits Pakistan to
show GB as a disputed territory, it is shown as that."[15]
The
disaffection rate is high. Large scale disturbances and agitations are
envisaged[16]. Overall
in this backdrop of sentimental, ethnic, legal, economic, political strife and uncertainty,
scrapping Article 370 has spurred people to look beyond Pakistan. Very clearly
there are indications that activists are knocking at various doors to get rid of
the Pakistani yoke. The Balwaristan National front seeks Independence from
Pakistan. There is even a nascent sentiment
to join India[17].
Strategic Approaches
Political Decision. The first national political decision
should be restitution of the ground positions in POK and
Gilgit-Baltistan to the cartographic borders as depicted in various maps of
India. The political decision to retake the area
must be firm, clear and unambiguous. It should not just be post 370 rhetoric.
It is a commitment in which India should be prepared to invest for the long
haul with consistency and sincerity.
Unified Policy. Irrespective of the Government or party in power, we should stay the
course without policy flip flops. Hence we need inner
political consensus at a national level rising above narrow political
ideologies. Our motor mouth politicians should not upset the apple-cart
with loose statements.
Internal Understanding. The center of gravity in retaking POK and
Gilgit-Baltistan is winning over the people. That means an understanding that
India will be taking on board 5 million Muslims more. All religious, ethnic and
ideological hardliners need to be tempered. We cannot spook the scared kitten.
De-hyphenation. POK and Gilgit-Baltistan are distinct and different. The people of Gilgit-Baltistan do not
want to get clubbed with POK. Each area leads to a different strategic
objective. POK puts you on the doorstep of Islamabad. Gilgit-Baltistan gives
you access to Afghanistan and destroys Pakistani status of a ‘frontline’
state. POK and Gilgit-Baltistan should be de hyphenated and pursued as
different objectives. It will force Pakistan to look in multiple directions.
Wherever Pakistan yields will be our gain.
Strategic Communication. Strategic communication will play a huge part. A perception is already forming that India is changing the game. The
message to China and Pakistan to stop CPEC projects in POK and Gilgit-Baltistan
is the opening gambit[18]. The
follow up will include communicating and opening a direct channel to the people
of POK and Gilgit-Baltistan. It could be like the Republic Day address of PM in
2015 when a mention of Baluchistan was made. Strategic communication must be
thought through and executed as per a plan.
Timing. ‘Now’ is the best time to start
the process. Pakistan is down on many counts. Pakistan is responding to India’s
political gambit with military hype through a drummer boy PM to provoke war. It
is totally off beat. China is caught in an economic slowdown, trade war and its
own homeland problems amidst a global recession. The international community is
also a bit fed up of Pakistani antics and will give tacit support to India if not
for anything else. The USA might see it as a great opening. That is if we play
our cards right.
Diplomatic Outreach. Restoring POK and Gilgit-Baltistan to India is only a correction of an historical anomaly. Diplomatic outreach to the
international community should project India’s principled
stand. USA should be taken on board. USA has relied on its double dealing ‘front-line’ partner to thwart Homeland Security threats emanating from Af-Pak area. If POK and
Gilgit-Baltistan are re-amalgamated into India, stabilization of Afghanistan
will be facilitated by a reliable strategic partner. US think tanks can start considering this perspective instead of creating 2-3 unstable countries as envisaged by Selig Harrison in Carnegie Endowment. What of China? China did not
show any morality in claiming the nine-dash line, forcibly occupying Spratly
Islands or in rejection of ICJ ruling. It should be told off accordingly.
Hard
vs Soft Power. Soft power must take lead. Media,
Bollywood, understanding tribal culture, democracy, aspirations, shared socio-economic
values, history, religion et al should be employed to win the people over and start a people’s movement. Hard
power can follow once the ground is made. It is economic and
political part of hard power which needs to roll out. The omnipotent military part should be the last resort and the least component. However, at some stage we might have to resort to hard power and at
that time we should not hesitate.
Non-military Non-nuclear. There is lot of talk and hype about retaking POK
and Gilgit Baltistan militarily. Any military option
will raise the nuclear stakes to an unacceptable level. That is precisely what
Pakistan wants! Pakistan Army is professional and will be more than a match along
the LOC if we are bull headed. Our approach must be non-military non-nuclear
and indirect. Planners should read Liddel Hart’s classic – ‘The Strategy of
Indirect Approach’ before embarking on this venture. Most importantly we must
learn from abrogation of Article 370. The political rapier cuts better than military
hammers. Reinforce success please.
Avoidance. ‘Pakistan has given India
repeatedly the opportunity to present the unrest in Kashmir to the world as
nothing more than a Pakistan-backed insurgency. This has effectively undermined
the struggle of the local population of Indian-administered Kashmir’[19].
This approach that must be totally avoided.
Operational Lines of Action
General. Once the strategic issues are in place and policy
decisions taken, there are plenty of lines of action. these should be dynamic and responsive to situational demands. These these lines of action should exploit Pakistan’s fault lines. Some would be specific to
POK and some to Gilgit-Baltistan. A one size fits all
approach should be avoided. Flexibility should be built in. Some
lines of action are outlined in succeeding paragraphs. More can be added by
think tanks and planners.
Political Lines. Politically communication to people in POK
and Gilgit-Baltistan should highlight fruits of
democracy and progress in India. Seats in J&K parliament kept
historically vacant for these areas can be filled on nomination basis from
displaced persons. They would then get representation in our
democracy to air their grievances. Human rights record of Pakistan is a major fault-line to be
exploited. Enforced disappearances in all parts of Pakistan is a major issue. Minority
communities are being systematically targeted including Shias, Ahmadiyya’s, Hindus
and Christians. Even Barelvi Sunnis are at the receiving end of this onslaught.
Pakistan is an epicenter in a war of ideas that is taking place within the
larger Muslim world.[20] Continuance in Pakistan
confers them second-rate status. People who want to cross over can even be
granted asylum.
Economic Lines. Pakistan is a failed state whose collapse is imminent. Pakistan has heaped only economic misery which can be exploited. Loss to the people for continuing in Pakistan needs highlighting. They contribute to the water security of
Pakistan and get no compensation. CPEC is causing tremendous loss to them for
other provinces to prosper. Allocation of CPEC resources is disproportionate in
this area. Even availability of food and basic issues like roti’s are getting
out of reach of the common man due to runaway inflation.
Diplomatic Action. A
concerted diplomatic effort must be launched. There
should be an outreach to all activists in/out of Pakistan to give them
moral support. We should be able to give
all organizations who seek independence from Pakistan a platform from which
they can articulate their aspirations democratically. Diplomatic dialogue
should begin with Pakistan for return of these areas to India. Any nations mediation offer for return of these
areas can even be considered.
Social and Cultural Issues. Environmental degradation and its adverse
effect on their lives needs highlighting. Education, jobs,
development and social opportunities can be outlined. The demographic inversion
of this region needs exposure. Chinese influx into the area is a live and
current issue. The status and neglect of IDPs needs social focus. Neglect of
people who have sacrificed their lives for Pakistan, especially from Northern
areas must be highlighted. The tremendous
soft power of our media can bring home these burning social issues to people.
Military Action. Military lines
of action should be low key and well below the threshold of Pakistan’s
redlines. All-out war scenarios are totally avoidable. Initially we should
maintain a low-key military profile with a hybrid approach for which there is
much scope. If the need arises, everyone concerned can be communicated that
India will hold its ground with all resources at its disposal. Ultimately it
will be the strength of the Armed Forces which will be the sheet anchor on
which this entire campaign will be mounted.
Conclusion
It will
be argued that it is not correct / imprudent for India to act in a manner which
is being suggested. Well we are in a world of realpolitik and we should have
the guts and gumption to retake what is ours. No one is going to hand it over a
platter to us. Otherwise let us stop showing this area as ours on maps. Time
for India to shed its softness. Having said this, we should set our own house
in order. That implies within Kashmir and out of it. All this is possible by
democratic consensus and cooperation and not by majoritarian attitudes or rhetoric. If we
are not strong and united internally, we will not be able to with stand and
overcome the combined onslaught of China and Pakistan. A strong blowback is
only to be expected.
[16] https://www.dawn.com/news/1269985/gbs-hydropower-potential, https://www.dawn.com/news/1504360/revisiting-our-gilgit-baltistan-policy
and https://www.dawn.com/news/1189255/challenges-for-gb-government All these
articles and more are authored by Afzal Ali Shigri, a Balti who has been an IGP
of Sindh. His articles in Dawn give you a true insight of the situation in
Gilgit Baltistan.
[17] https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/11180-people-gilgit-baltistan-want-join-india-bnf and https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/people-of-gilgit-baltistan-are-indians-pakistan-has-no-right-there-says-activist-senge-sering-1482263-2019-03-20
The ground situation of the two parts of Kashmir- the Kashmir held by India and the Kashmir occupied by Pakistan is very revealing.
ReplyDeleteIn the Indian held Kashmir, the rule of law, Parliamentary democracy and freedom of press etc are there for everyone to see. Furthermore, the region enjoyed special status and safeguards.
Compare this with Pakistani occupied Kashmir. Their land has been systematically appropriated for allotting to Veterans of Pakistan Army; they were denied representation in Pakistan Parliament and have no elected legislative Assemblies to govern the region. They have no access to justice as they are not part of Pakistan and the Supreme Court of Pakistan has no jurisdiction over them.
And still Pakistani Government hopes that these people will opt to join Pakistan if a Plebiscite is held today. Great Expectations...
good perspective sir
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteTony SaraoSeptember 16, 2019 at 12:35 PM
All said and done, it must be understood that when we say J&K, it means the entire state of J&K as it was on midnite 15 Aug 1947.
More importantly, when we say POK, it means the entire territory of the erstwhile princely
state of J&K that was forcefully occupied by Pak.
We need not keep saying POK and Gilgit Baltistan area ---- when referring to the parts illegally occupied by Pak.
Vajpayee made the biggest blunder in not permitting our Forces to cross the border during the Kargil War. We lost A chance to cut off GB from POK. Even if it was difficult to take it over entirely we could have ‘annexed’ some portions of it while denying access to Pak Forces from the south.
ReplyDeleteIt would have been easier to foment trouble in the area for Pakistan and make it easier to liberate it in the future.
Gen VP Malik should have learnt from Fd Marshall Maneckshaw and asked for full freedom.
A very well researched, well articulated and informative article sir. Your analysis on resorting to political actions over the military actions is bang on. Seeing the political will of the present govt & direction in which things are moving, we may be looking at some substantial actions in the coming months/ years.
ReplyDeleteAmazing Analysis Kill the Snake without breaking our Stick .Pray Our Political Masters derive lesson from this Wounderful Analysis
ReplyDeleteSir, in the conclusion, you state: "Having said this, we should set our own house in order. That implies within Kashmir and out of it. All this is possible by democratic consensus and cooperation and not by majoritarian attitudes or rhetoric. If we are not strong and united internally, we will not be able to with stand and overcome the combined onslaught of China and Pakistan".
ReplyDeleteI wonder how many of your readers pay attention to this.
I consider this to be necessary pre-condition for developing a strategy for retaking Gilgit-Baltistan.
A suggestion: Maps of hilly areas would be more meaningful if elevations were color coded. Without that a number of readers would think that its like a drive from Delhi to Amritsar.
Great article general sahab. Small correction though. The area referred to as Pak Occupied Kashmir is mostly Pak Occupied Jammu. Kashmir is a very small part of Pak occupied territory. Don't know much about Kishanganga (Neelum), but people in Muzaffarabad and southwards have never been Kashmiris and have different languages
ReplyDeleteWhat is being suggest is full grown insurgency, fueled by India. Well, aren’t we already doing all we can? Not working. Which muslim will want to become part of this India? Come here only to be lynched and/or females raped? No way. Even hindus, those who can, are leaving India.
ReplyDeleteThe only way to retake is by brute force which is something we simply don’t have. All we can do is to keep what we have (if China too is not actively assisting Pak, which is very likely the next scrnario).
And, above all, why even try? Can we simply not live like a decent people? Are we destined to be called ‘Killers’ by posterity?