Of all the countries I've dealt with, I consider Pakistan to
be the most dangerous, because of the radicalization of its society and the
availability of nuclear weapons…Pakistan was a country born with no affection
for itself, and there was an active self-destructive streak in its political
culture… The tragedy for the Pakistani people is that they don't have
leaders who care about their future… Pakistan views all geopolitics through the prism of its hostility
toward India, which has shaped its policy in Afghanistan to the detriment
of Afghanis and the rest of the world ..
Gen
Mattis
Gen Mattis got it right on the count that Pakistan
views all geopolitics through its prism of its hostility towards India. However, i think he missed the mark on the count that Pakistani people do not have leaders who care
about their future. The Pakistani people do not have leaders. They have an Army
oligarchy which cares about its future at their expense. That is more than a
tragedy. It is in this context that I have penned this through the prism of an
imaginary Pakistani General. The General may be imaginary however his thinking approximates
to my assessment as to how the Pakistani cabal of Generals will behave hereafter.
To that extent I consider this approximation as realistic. The actuality may be
more diabolic, organized and better orchestrated than what I have outlined. We
must know our enemy and deal with him accordingly. In our case we have an
enemy addicted to the emotion of revenge with which we will have to live with till Pakistan
disintegrates.
THINKING OF A PAKISTANI
GENERAL
Core
Interests of Pakistani Army
The Pakistan Army has
two core interests. Firstly, continue to be an Army with a Nation. Secondly, wreak
revenge on India. The rest is all secondary. We are not interested in Kashmir.
It is a deception tool in our designs. Ideally, we would like to defeat India
soundly in a war – conventional or nuclear. We know we cannot. A defeat by India hereafter
could end Pakistan as a State and unseat us (Army). That is anathema to our
core interests. We will not allow that. War
is no option. Long back we embarked on a path to bleed India with a thousand
cuts. Though this strategy has not paid full dividends, it is still the best
one. Before I outline my strategy, let
me outline the present conditions.
External
Situation
China. China – our ‘Iron
Brother” has not been able to help us as we expected them to, despite giving
them so many brides. Maybe because of their own economics problems, trade war,
internal issues pertaining to Hong Kong, Xinjang and Tibet and a host of other
factors. However, in the long run we hope they will be there to support us. The
next Sino Indian Border incident like Doklam will be our opportunity to strike
India. Our problem with them is that they are trying to colonize us.
USA. We will run with the jihadi hare and hunt with the US
hounds. In the ultimate analysis we need the USA for many things. The veiled
threat to the American homeland ensures flow of dollars and arms into Pakistan.
They need us to exit Afghanistan. Once they exit Afghanistan, we will start
fooling them again by assuring to protect their interests while undermining
them totally. We know that USA will not help us in any eventuality with India.
Off late they treat us with utmost suspicion. The Taliban deal is also iffy. If
it does not go well, we will not have the traction we want.
Islamic Countries. The Islamic
Ummah is a disappointment. The OIC is a toothless tiger. The Ummah has marooned
us. They will not help us. They are only
interested in using us a labor force in the Gulf. We can count on Turkey. However,
against India it counts very little. We must mend our fences with Iran to
secure our Western border in case we have to prosecute any kind of action with
India.
Afghanistan. Afghanistan offers us immense strategic space. After
USA’s exit and once our Taliban Allies are in power in Afghanistan, our Western
Border becomes more secure. It enables us to restart the Narcotic trade which
is vital for funding the campaign against India. We will also facilitate China’s
entry into Afghanistan for minerals to earn revenues. Of course, all the surplus
Jihadis there will be cheap and great strategic assets for us to be pushed into
Kashmir.
Summary. Our external situation is very precarious. We have
no allies who will support us in our fight against India. We are isolated. We must
fight our own battles all alone in the Pakistani way to decimate India.
Internal
Situation
There is no doubt that
our internal situation is poor. Our economy is in shambles. ’Im the Dim’, our
selected PM is ineffective. There are problems in Baluchistan and KP. Though all
these issues can be handled, they tie down our forces and add to our
expenditure. However, they can be
handled with a firm hand. We have one ace. As a nation we hate India, and that unites
us. Hence irrespective of all things, we can wage a war against India at various
levels till eternity just with the hate factor. We also have strategic assets
in our jihadis which will be beefed up when USA exits Afghanistan.
How to
Wage the New War
Aim. Continue to be an Army with a nation.
Centre of Gravity. The Army is the Centre of Gravity. Everything in
Pakistan hinges around it. It must be preserved and used to optimum effect. It should
not be committed against India in a full-fledged war.
Strategic Opportunity. We were under tremendous pressure from the FATF to dismantle
our strategic assets. However, abrogation of Article 370 by India has given new
wind to our sails. We must lie low for a month or two. After the next review,
when we will be taken of the grey list, we can restart with our business. However,
we must recalibrate our strategy and start from a new direction. Afterall the
ground situation has changed. The new way is home grown terror in Kashmir and Rest
of India.
Tenets. We must fight a very low-cost diffused war in which
violence is affordable and untraceable to us. Keep India boiling. Continue
flagging the existential threat. Continue playing the nuclear holocaust card.
Keep ourselves (Army) relevant and mandatory for survival. At any cost ensure Pakistan
does not break up. We must exhibit strategic patience and grab the opportunity
when it is presented.
Funding. The state of our economy does not permit a full war
now or in the decades to come. However,
we can fund a low-cost war. Our $38 Bn military businesses will fund it along
with Narcotic Trade from our Western Borders. Afterall in the nineties it was
the narcotic trade which kept our economy afloat. Of course, we will continue
to skim the budget. The people can make do with the leftovers. Last but not the
least we will squeeze USA to continue arming us. We can also start skimming
India for funding. Indians will be made to pay for their own destruction like they have been made to do so for so many years in Kashmir.
Strategy
Kashmir-Intifada
Strategy. We must help the new Intifada to take
root and prosper into a freedom movement. We must strengthen the local freedom fighters
with the Afghanis. We must capture the narrative and propagate ours - occupation, alienation, hindutva, fascism, threat to Islam,
genocide, human rights et al. We must capture the political space with a new
leadership of believers. We must win over the middle ground. All politicians
like Omar Abdullah and Mufti must be enticed into our side to widen and
strengthen the base of the Intifada. The lot of oppressed Kashmiris must geometrically
increase. There must be disobedience, widespread paralysis, protests, stone pelting
and total non-cooperation. A new leadership must be created which is iconic,
popular and aggressive. Most importantly they should be pro Azadi and not Pro
Pakistani to maintain deniability. We must capture the education, infiltrate government
jobs and milk the machinery. Kashmir must remain paralyzed. Tourism, local
industry and economy must be choked. Settlers from outside should be slaughtered.
Security forces must be provoked into human rights abuses and killings of the
common Kashmiri. Media and human rights
platforms must be exploited fully. Kashmir is our jugular vein and we will
go to any length to protect it… this is the chant of every Pakistani. Any amount of sacrifice is not enough. Militants should
be given the promised dream of 72 virgins on Shahadat. Afterall it is the
Kashmiris who will be dying and not Pakistanis! We must also ensure Kashmiris are self-financed through hawala, bank
looting, siphoning government funds, drug trade and donations. The prime source
of funding will be the Indian Treasury. We will take care not to provoke India
to act against us. The Indian government must look constantly inwards. Very importantly,
we should be able to reinvent the movement when Kashmiris show any kind of
fatigue.
Military -
War Avoidance Strategy. While war
hysteria will be built up, ‘war avoidance at all costs’ is our strategy. We will
not and cannot confront India conventionally. In case we must get into a fight,
it should be a short skirmish where we can skillfully demonstrate and claim
victory as we did post Balakot. Our image
as a great military nation will grow. After every fight we should emerge as the
only force to which people can turn to irrespective of the outcome. Then Pakistan
will continue to remain ours. The LOC should be kept silent since we suffer causalities
there. Bad for morale. The nuclear card will be played constantly. We must wait
for an opportunity when India and China get into a tangle. We will then exploit
the situation fully. Diverting Taliban from Afghanistan into Kashmir after
training and arming them will be our prime military task. Training and arming Kashmiri freedom fighters will
continue. Our Jihadis must sap the morale of Indian security forces. Lot of
effort will be put in to collect intelligence and evolve an alternate
communication system during blackout phases. One of the most important aspects
of our military strategy is to ensure a quiet Western Border so that maximum
forces are available on the Indian Border. We will also start collaborating with
IS and Al Qaeda through JEM and LET to enable them grow in Kashmir. Most importantly
our Military should now refine the art of deniability through un-traceability.
Rest of
India- Muslim Oppression Strategy. Outside Kashmir, we will start spreading
unadulterated mayhem. India should feel the pain. Attacks in Mumbai,
Parliament, Akshardham etc were traced back to us. We cannot have that anymore.
To start with, we will study the Sri
Lanka Easter Bombings model and replicate it at various parts of India on every
important Hindu festival. There are enough oppressed and cultivated Muslims in
India who will carry out our designs. Dawood Ibrahim and more such people will
be of great value in this strategy. We can infiltrate into India at will
through Nepal, Bangladesh and even Sri Lanka. We must assist IS and Al Qaeda to
establish themselves in India. On a parallel track, we must exploit the oppression
and discrimination of the Muslim minority by Hindu fascists. Issues like Cow Slaughter
Ban, lynching of Muslims, Babri Masjid, Gujrat Massacre, ethnic cleansing and NRC
are fertile grounds for us to exploit. We need to build on these. India must
bleed and be made to look bad internationally. The cracks of democracy must be
exploited. There are enough disaffected intellectuals who can be used to our
advantage. They have already started venting their anger at the Modi
Government. We must maximize these friends of Pakistan without scaring them. At
the end these are patriotic Indian fools who are doing a good job for us. Let them
be that way.
Internal –
Protective Strategy. Internally we will execute a defensive and protective
strategy to ensure that we do not lose what we have. India will fish in our troubled
waters- which are aplenty. It has already started eyeing AJK, Gilgit and
Baltistan. We could lose AJK in one sharp political stroke. It will overturn
our invincibility and start breaking up Pakistan. What we are realizing is that
the political sword is sharper than the military one. We must use every trick to
ensure that this area remains calm and with us. It is key to our water
security. Any loss here means danger to CPEC. We must be ruthless against the
Baluch insurgents and crush them. CPEC is very vulnerable. Indians will start targeting CPEC projects
which we will have to protect. We cannot let our Chinese masters become unhappy
more than they are. If CPEC fails miserably, we are sunk. All our Swiss bank
accounts will be endangered. Most importantly, we must protect our Nuclear Jewels.
They are our insurance to remain relevant.
60% of any strategic
plan is based on ground or the environment. 30% is based on the enemy intent
and plans and only 10% is based on our own intent. This was what I was once
told by my instructor in Staff College. I never forgot that. The current effort to think
through a Pakistani General’s mind
is to assess the 30% of the enemy part as well as confirm that the 60% of the
environmental factors are correct. It is also an effort to enable us to act in anticipation
rather than react in hindsight. When we act in anticipation, based on reason,
it forces the enemy to change his original ideas. In this business of war of
proxies which Pakistan is indulging in, ideas take time to generate and be
acted upon. Thus, we buy ourselves time and space to execute our plans to the benefit
of our people. I might not be correct in
my assessment, but I am not wrong either.
VERY RELEVANT ANALYSIS. GUD FOR U SIR.
ReplyDeleteSuppose we accept the LOC as an open border ?
ReplyDeleteWhat ever Pakistan and its own structure and dynamics, we want to resolve the issue for our sake and not them, unless we want the soldiers and civilians to continue to bleed , till when ?.Pakistan deserves all our abuses and condemnation but does that solve OUR problem on ground ?
If there is divided Punjab and Bengal , there certainly can be divided Kashmir .
Any other plausible solution ?
Excellent analysis. Now visualize how our own government will go out and actually help Pakistan! Keep threatening and alienating the 20 crore Muslims through motormouth idiots, lunch mobs and gaurakshaks. Keep ignoring the Economy as it slides back to the Hindu rate of growth....and losing international support of countries that are all fair weather friends interested only in our market. And finally decimate the institutions like CBI, ED, NIA, EC, RBI, Judiciary, Civil Services, a vibrant free media that made India strong. The Pakistani General will be more than happy
ReplyDeleteSir, if we do that , we deserve our fate!
DeleteAgree! Many times I feel we are our worst enemy! Aiding and abetting the agenda of Pakistan!
DeleteExcellent article sir. Very logically analysed. Probably the Pak Military would be more than happy that you have done their thinking, as they may have missed out a few of the options. What ever you have covered is exactly how the situation will unfold. The Indian intelligence agencies & security forces will have their hands full in the coming days & months.
ReplyDelete