Reality Beyond the Summit
With President Xi Jinping in Mamallapuran for an informal
Summit with PM Modi it is time to take a realistic look at the Sino-Indian equations.
There are a lot of articles appearing on how Sino-Indian bilateral relations
should move ahead. No issue with all postulations and the wonderful chemistry
between President Xi Jinping and PM Modi.
While these harmonizing activities should continue, we should take a
hard look at the reality to strengthen our long-term strategy to deal with
China. The reality of Sino-Indian relations post Doklam, even ignoring historic
irritants and hostilities is dark. China
continues to block our entry into the NSG. The “String of Pearls’ is growing
stronger. The trade imbalance has widened. China is blatantly supporting
Pakistan in all its activities. Pakistan is China’s catspaw against India. The
CPEC continues to move ahead ignoring our sovereignty concerns. China blocks
Masood Azhar from being declared a terrorist by UN. They divert Brahmaputra
waters with utter disregard. Sino Pak joint statements just prior to the summit
also do not inspire confidence. All this
reinforces the statement of Shri George Fernandes – China is our enemy No 1.
The Jade Necklace
Most of us analyze China from an India centric viewpoint. When
viewed China centrically some interesting options emerge. A fascinating option is
to return the compliment of “String of Pearls” in the IOR with a multistrand “Jade
Necklace”. In my view Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hongkong and Macau, Vietnam, Tibet,
Gilgit-Baltistan, Xinjiang and Mongolia form the first strand of the Jade
Necklace. The second strand is Religion and Democracy. The third strand is the
Indo- US strategic partnership and the Quad. The fourth strand is ASEAN and the
Pacific Island Nations. The fifth strand is BRI and One China policy. The overall box in which the Jade Necklace must
be enclosed is India’s Act East policy. Let us understand the strands in some
granularity.
The First Strand – The Main Strand
Japan. Historically,
Sino-Japanese relations have been adversarial. Earlier they were hostile. Today
they are toned down. At the Government level they have a fast-growing trade
relationship despite territorial disputes in the East China Sea. At people
level there is a latent mutual dislike, hatred or hostility. Overall, Japan remains wary about Chinese
intentions like the rest of the world. On the other hand, Indo Japan ties are
growing stronger by the day. Both have common interests in resisting the
Chinese onslaught. It is not a secret or a revelation. Japan is the lynchpin of
the “Jade Necklace”.
Vietnam. Sino- Vietnam relations are choppy. Vietnam
relied heavily on China in its struggle for Independence from the French and
Americans. However, the Chinese treated Vietnam as second rate and set out to
teach them a lesson in 1978. They were humiliated by the Vietnamese - a quiet,
determined and fiercely independent people. Since then, they have had an uneasy
relationship. Both share a communist ideology and are trading freely with each
other. However, they have territorial disputes in the Spratly Islands in the South
China Sea. Vietnam regards India as a
natural hedge against China. They need us for many things. They trust us. Vietnam
gives us a ledge in the South China Sea. The Indo Vietnamese ties are growing. There is
a dire need to elevate this relationship to the next level of ‘Cooperation’ and
‘Strategic Partnership’. Vietnam and Japan are our springboards in all our
activities in the China Seas.
Taiwan.
Taiwan is the prickly pear on China’s doorstep. Taiwan is China’s No1 trouble spot. It has resisted all Chinese efforts to gobble
it up under the “One Country Two Systems” policy in vogue with Hongkong. China’s
worst nightmare is “if Taiwan declares
independence”. Trade relations are strong,
but all other relations are poor and hostile. Taiwan is also the first elusive
springboard which China must get hold of to break out of its first Island chain
to dominate the South China Sea. The disputed Spratly’s do not give China a
free run. Strengthen Taiwan and China remains contained. When analyzed in a
wider framework, China has a conundrum. If it jumps across the channel to get
hold of Taiwan, the Tibet backdoor opens. If it gets across the Himalayas, the
Taiwanese front door is left ajar. In my assessment it cannot do both. Hence
the QED for India is to expand Indo-Taiwanese relations to the next level. This
is happening.
South Korea.
Sino- South Korean relations follow the familiar trajectory of
increasing trade and lack of trust. South Korea was one of the last to
recognize PRC. They have an issue with the Chinese support to North Korea. The two
countries have territorial disputes in the East China Sea. Indo South Korean relations
have been growing geometrically and multidimensionally. They need to be taken
to a strategic level to derive better value. Another fact is that India is one
of the few countries which has diplomatic relations with North Korea. In a
changed scenario, India will have a huge role to play if reunification of
Koreas is on the horizon. We might have access to the Yalu one day! Who thought
that the Berlin wall would be broken down?
Hong Kong and
Macau. Hong Kong and Macau are sovereign islands of China which were once
colonies of UK and Portugal. They function under the “One China Two Systems”
format. Chinese effort to completely amalgamate
these island territories under the “One China Policy” is facing unprecedented
resistance in Hong Kong. China is very wary of these islands since both have
tasted the forbidden fruit of “Democracy”. All India must do is help “Democracy”
in any nominal manner.
Gilgit-Baltistan. Gilgit-Baltistan is a two-edged
knife. Thrust it in. It cuts Pakistan and China. Just outlining a clear intent to
retake this area will put pressure on the illegal transfer of the Shaksgam Valley
to China and the CPEC. A few diplomatic steps and deploying soft power will see
tremendous results flowing including taking the spotlight off Article 370.
India’s moves to abrogate Article 370 and lay claims on POK are already being
read as game changers by international strategic analysts.
Tibet. Tibet is a prickly issue for the Chinese.
Historically, Tibet’s status has varied with the rise and fall of China. Significantly
it has never been permanent. If China weakens, Tibet could exhibit greater autonomy.
Conversely, if Tibet exhibits autonomy, China has started to weaken. If the
Tibetan Government in exile continues to function from India, China will be
very unhappy. This is a tap for India to regulate. At this point of time, this
tap needs to open a little more.
Xinjian. Tibet and Xinjian form the unstable backdoor
of China. The world is looking at this internal hotspot of China and the way
Uighurs are being incarcerated by China. Is there a need to support the
Uighurs? Yes of course.
Mongolia. Mongolia was just a buffer between
USSR and China. Since the collapse of USSR, it was forced to be a Chinese
satellite. China is the main trading partner of Mongolia. Till recently
Mongolia was content to some extent and forced to some extent to remain in
Chinese shadows. In past decade the country has seemingly made a strategic
shift. It includes warming up to India. Indo Mongol trade has grown manifold. We
have recently inaugurated a petrochemical plant there. Mongolia is a staunch supporter of India’s bid
for permanency in the UNSC. We just need to expand this cooperation in China’s
back yard.
Malacca Straits. The Malacca Straits is the hook
of the Jade Necklace. Its domination from our unsinkable carrier - Andaman and
Nicobar Islands heightens China’s Malacca Dilemma.
The Second Strand - The Temporal Strand
Democracy.
China is intensely worried about
democracy. Chinese vulnerability in Hong Kong is apparent. China cannot handle democracy
and freedoms which go with it. China understands that democracy is a virus to start
a revolution. So, how about sending
delegations of our loud mouth politicians for people to people
exchanges to China? They will do the needful to spread the virus.
The Third Strand - The Strengthener
Indo US Strategic Partnership. The growing Indo
US Strategic Partnership is a direct shot at containment of China. As the
partnership grows, Chinese maneuver space reduces. It will however provoke a
cycle of Sino Indian cooperation and competition. How India operates this
partnership will be of interest in future. It will be a very important strand
of the Jade Necklace. It stiffens and strengthens it.
QUAD. The QUAD is still evolving. Irrespective
of the form of its operationality, the mere thought process and the run up to
its formation will have its impact. Meeting of foreign ministers of the QUAD on
the side lines of the recently concluded UNGA proceedings is a significant step.
The Fourth Strand – The Space Reducer
ASEAN. India has come a long way from being a
mere on looker of ASEAN. It is significant that ASEAN leaders were the Guests
of Honor for our 69th Republic Day Parade. Partnership with ASEAN
has expanded to include security, economy, trade, culture and agriculture. Such
expanded engagement decreases Chinese space. Moreover, it is very clear that
from a people to people perspective the tilt is to a non-intrusive India vis a
vis a dominant China. The soft power outcomes hold significant promise. This is
a partnership which will grow from strength to strength.
Pacific Island Nations. The recent engagement of PM Modi with
representatives of Pacific Island Nations is significant. The Pacific Island
Nations comprise of Fiji, Republic of Kiribati, Republic of Marshall Islands,
Federated States of Micronesia, Republic of Nauru, Republic of Palau,
Independent State of Papua New Guinea, The Independent State of Samoa, Solomon
Islands, Kingdom of Tonga, Tuvalu and Republic of Vanuatu. A dialogue with
these small nation states of the Pacific Ocean increases own reach and reduces
Chinese influence in the Pacific.
The Fifth Strand -The Direct Shooter
BRI. India is one of the few countries which
has publicly shunned and opposed the BRI – CPEC combination from conception. Indian
non-participation in all BRI forums is now recognized in strategic circles. It
is not a small thing. Even China has been placatory towards India on this issue
by offering alternate mechanisms. The informal summit between PM Modi and
President Xi Jinping is a direct outcome of this stand.
One China Policy. India has consistently refused
to endorse the “One China Policy”. “One China” is the core dream of China. The
mere existence of Dalai Lama in India is non endorsement of the “One China Policy”.
This is deep and is not understood often in our strategic circles. This is
bound to continue in future and will be an important component of Sino India
diplomacy and strategic compact.
Conclusion
China wants a multipolar world but a unipolar Asia in which
it is the sole pole. The “String of Pearls” theory, probably initiated by some
Chinese psychologist and swallowed hook line and sinker by some of us, keeps
reinforcing this view. It is time to stem the tide. Many countries in Asia recognize India’s growth
and its balancing role. There is plenty of scope to rein in China if we have a
policy in place. Hence the concept of the “Jade Necklace”. Many will pooh-pooh it and say such thinking
is beyond India. Ever since the Act East policy has rolled out, many elements
of the “Jade Necklace” are in place. Consider. Xi Jinping would not have come
here for an informal summit if not for the importance of India in the Chinese
scheme of things. It is also testimony that China takes India far more
seriously than we take ourselves. The “Jade
Necklace” only mirrors the “String of Pearls”. It is real. If taken seriously it
reinforces Indian effort to handle China from multiple directions. It is a two-way
game. Let us not underestimate ourselves.
Sir a very nice article and logical thought process. Very impressive
ReplyDeleteGen Shankar, the sheer scale of possibilities thrown open by this theory of jade necklace is stunning. Unfortunately, the noisy democracy that we are, there would be many a nay sayers who would baulk at the possibility of its operationalisation.
ReplyDeleteOne thing is sure...if we display consistency and not change tune with the changing dispensation at New Delhi, it has the potential to bring China on its knees.
A Very pragmatic analysis. Hope the political and strategic think tanks in New Delhi take note.
ReplyDelete