I got some great feedback on my earlier article in which I
highlighted the concept of Multi Domain Operations (https://palepurshankar.blogspot.com/2019/10/era-of-disruption-in-military-affairs.html) and the requirement of Indian strategic
thinking to align with this emerging thought process. The feedback suggested
that it was a great futuristic concept.
Sorry folks. It is not a futuristic concept I was outlining. It is
current, clear and happening now. It further led me to ask myself a question.
War is changing. Are we? The short hasty answer would be – No. However, the
issue needs deeper thinking and reflection. Let me attempt it.
Changing Face of War
In Jul 19, two oil tankers were sunk in the Gulf of Oman
through use of mines. In Sep 19, two coordinated air strikes were carried out
on oil facilities deep in Saudi Arabia by UAVs. Study them and one realizes that
these attacks are co-related and well-coordinated highly lethal attacks through
multiple domains. Suddenly, the world is suing for peace with Iran. International
helplessness is indicated by the fact that they are reduced to use Imran Khan
as a mediator. Iran has just won a war through Multi Domain Operations with
minimal costs.
In Aug 19, India spikes up the deployment in J&K and
abrogates Article 370 of its own Constitution. This simple action creates an international
upheaval and evokes a huge reaction from Pakistan. However, the normally
aggressive Pakistani Army is reduced to sitting on the sidelines twiddling its thumbs. It is left to a hyperventilating ‘Im the Dim’ to raise the nuclear
bogey. However, it also shifts the spotlight across the LOC as never before. A
huge info-media war is unleashed. The world is squeezing Pakistan through
FATF. Pakistan is in internal turmoil with a regime change on the cards. It is a
war we have won with Pakistan without fighting. Can you blame the establishment
if it reduces defence budgets? After all, the Armed Forces were not the centerpiece
of this victory.
The USA starts a trade war with China and that puts severe
strain on a cooling Chinese economy. Pro-democracy protests start in Hong Kong.
These two events combined with some internal factors in China put crutches on
Chinese aggressive traits to dominate the world. Articles and analysis are
emerging which indicate that Taiwan is an Island which is strategically too far
for China. Do you really believe that these are uncoordinated events?
India is the fourth largest target for cyber-attacks. China
accounts for as much as 35% of these attacks. As we enter this mega dream of
Digital India, our vulnerability can only increase. So? Will Digital India make India strong or weak? Depends.
How does Digital India protect the online pension of a retired government
schoolmaster in Assam from being diverted from SBI Lumding to an offshore bank
in Lithuania or Albania? Especially in a scenario in which the Government of
India is providing incentives for digital transactions with very little
guarantees. Are we prepared?
Welcome to the World of Multi Domain Operations which I have defined
as conventional and/or non-conventional ops carried out by state and /or non-state
actors using hard and/or soft power in the domains of air, land, sea, space,
cyberspace, nuclear space, information environment and electromagnetic
spectrum for specified outcomes in war
or peace. Analyze all these
cases in their larger contexts. Do they fit into the definition of Multi Domain Operations?
If you feel they do not, we are living on different planets. Thank you. Do not
waste your time further.
Are We Aware?
The question which pops up is that; are we aware that
we are into the world of MDO? Oh yes. In some undefined manner. Gen
Bipin Rawat, the COAS, recently addressed a conference of DRDO
Directors. He was quoted as saying “The next war will be fought with
indigenous weapons and we will win it…. If we are looking at the contours of future warfare,
it may not necessarily be contact warfare. So, there is a realm of
non-contact warfare. We need to start looking at development of cyberspace,
space, laser, electronic warfare and robotics... and, along with that
Artificial Intelligence [AI], and if we do not start thinking on it now, it
will be too late.” He
is right. In a large sense he outlined MDO. We are aware. His statement also
signifies what is outrageously wrong also in equal sense. It needs further
analysis.
Are
We Changing?
Just
think. The COAS makes a very profound and futuristic statement. To whom? To the
Directors of all DRDO labs. Let us take it further. Most of these Directors or
their predecessors have a track record of ‘hit and miss’ on delivery of systems
pertinent to the last generation conventional wars with last generation
conventional technologies. Does the COAS expect them to deliver the goods for
the next generation multidomain operations with next generation disruptive
technologies? La La Land! The next generation of military technologies is all
about young people with unstructured minds who can disrupt warfare with heir originality.
It is about nimble and responsive systems which can grasp these straws of
brilliance to weld them into weapon systems. We need to face another fact. Atrophied and
uneducated brains like mine cannot understand these technologies. The Armed
Forces have minimalistic or no idea as to how to harness the power of these
technologies. In the absence of core knowledge, we will end up with foreign
OEMs who come with ‘ready to buy’ ‘one generation old’ systems which will cost
us a bomb. On the other hand, examine
the Israeli Model. All next gen technologies are being harnessed for military
use by start-ups created by ex-military personnel on a dual use basis. The
start-up route is the only available option for the Armed Forces. They must
take the lead and the government must take some risks. The bureaucracy is
averse to risk since the holy grail of Defence Procurement – The DPP 2016 has no
chapter on start-ups! Hence, we will continue to wallow in a sea of helplessness unless the Armed Forces take it upon themselves to do something about their situation. .
Let
us look at the problem from a different angle. Operations have expanded much
beyond the old domains of Air, Land and Sea. Military budgets have catered for
conventional domains hitherto fore. Tomorrows budgets need to cater for all
these additional domains. Hence budget expansion is mandated. But. Indian
economy is edging downwards to those historic Hindu growth rates of the last
century. Hence an era of stagnant financial allocations for defence is clearly
on the cards. Far from increasing, let us prepare for a tightening of the
military belt. The way the economy is crawling, any hope for an increase in the defence budget is dreaming like Alice in
Wonderland. The net effect is that we must innovate to do more with less. There is no choice. The moot
question is - Is that feasible?
Recently
I spent time with a senior officer discussing how the Artillery modernisation
plan was executed. He made an astute observation that the Artillery modernisation
plan was moving so fast that it was necessary to put brakes on it. After all
the Army needs other stuff besides Artillery. Absolutely correct. We need
balance. Then how is this explained. When we are in the process of inducting four-gun
systems and after having mastered Gun Technologies and achieved a high degree
of indigenisation, why are we negotiating a contract with a foreign vendor for
procuring a huge number of guns which I consider are of inferior technology. That
too when the next generation indigenously designed artillery weapon is coming
along nicely. In this deal we will also be paying a huge amount for a
technology transfer which we do not need! After that we will be milked for life
on exorbitant spares from abroad. We must not forget that our capacity to
operationalise TOTs is poor. This affair goes against all grains. There is
neither indigenisation or consolidation of capability acquired / developed through Make in India. It makes for a prime case of financial imprudence since we are
going to pay for something which we do not need, and we will not have money for
something which we need elsewhere! If this is what the NSA led high level
committee to coordinate defence procurement is achieving, then we must look out
for the swiss banker somewhere in the system.
Let
us take another example. Why are we trying to increase the requirement of our AFV
fleet and then trying to import it, when we can use them against Pakistan only;
which is now an almost non-existent conventional threat. Is there a case to convert
our three armour heavy strike Corps ranged against Pakistan into mountain
capable reserves composed of Infantry and long-range but light (in
weight) Artillery? There is. All we need to do is shed the armour component to the holding/
pivot corps to take care of Pakistan. The resultant will be four mountain
capable dual tasked strike corps. The entire strategic dynamic and construct will
change altogether. We have great scope to
do more with less. ( https://bharatshakti.in/the-need-for-military-rebalance/).
However,
some of us are not able to see things in their simplicity so that basic changes can serve the nation better. Let me highlight
another case. The top priority development programme of USA is long range
precision fires through Artillery. Indian Army has reduced its requirement for indigenously
designed and developed long range precision vectors through a ill-considered and probably ill-motivated decision and substituted it with shorter range conventional guns!
Some foresight! The decrease in range of engagement is in the order of more
than half, the volume of engagement reduces by a factor of 12 to 20. The
technology shifts from indigenous to foreign! In all these cases there is clear
indication that we are not doing more
for less but doing less by more. Our military leadership and Generalship
is operating with eyes and head wide shut. Need some serious operational rethink
with honesty at a national level. There are many more such cases which can be
quoted. It only reinforces my views expressed in an earlier article. (https://palepurshankar.blogspot.com/2019/06/generally-on-generals-by-lt-gen-p-r.html).
Time
to Smell the Coffee
The clear
indications are that while the nature of War is changing - We are not.
The COAS has stated something profound. The national leadership has indicated
and demonstrated that it is capable of strategic surprise through calculated
risk. However, the disconnect which exists between the multiple silos of our security
establishment is palpably more than a handbrake. It is time for the leadership
to smell the coffee. The prospective CDS has a handful if he to be a little
more than a coordinator. That friendly president who came to Mamallapuram has
set China on the biggest military expansion the world has seen since the second
world war. If one reads the last White Paper issued out by China on Defence,
you will find all ingredients of Multi Domain Warfare nicely explained there.
In the world of realpolitik, capability matters since intentions can change. Do I need to say more?
Excellent -eye opener
ReplyDeleteOn Target
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ReplyDeleteWell put Sir. I had a question and a point to make. First, the question:
ReplyDeletePlease can you point me to the origin of your statement: "India is the fourth largest target for cyber-attacks. China accounts for as much as 35% of these attacks. As we enter this mega dream of Digital India, our vulnerability can only increase"
I am in the process of developing a paper on Cyber Security for India as part of my contributions to iSPIRT http://ispirt.in/ and would like to reference it. I will of course reference this blog post.
Second: I agree with your point that we need startups to start moving on Def. Tech and I find the work you are doing with Shastra pretty interesting (I'm sure you are working with IDEX http://idex.gov.in/ also). This interaction (and you are right about the Israelis) needs to be structured and a framework (including a sandbox) needs to be put in place. I am not sure if IDEX does that completely. I'm hoping your work will do that.
I look forward to watching the progress your team is making with interest.
With warm regards,
Rinka Singh
(rinka a.t. ispirt d.o.t in)