This is essentially a throw back on my article which examined the Question
Is China A Superpower?
China is
India’s Number One Enemy.
George
Fernandez, India’s Defence Minister
1.
In 2002 the topic of my dissertation
during the Higher Command Course was ‘China’s Growing Clout in International
Affairs with Particular Reference to its Political, Economic and Military Roles
in the Post-Cold War Years’. I stumbled upon it a few days back and took time to read
it again. Reading it gave me a sense of déjà vu in many ways. Many things have
not changed and what the world saw two decades back is only being played out. While the entire world is waiting for Superpower
China to emerge out of itself, there are features which have not changed at
all. In this context I have re-produced extracts from the dissertation and put
them in current context. After all, as someone said – those who ignore history
will be confined to its ashes.
Has China Arrived?
2.
Externally
two issues will condition China’s international relations. In the initial
stage, the focus will be on China being able to manage its affairs with the
world to support its change. Thereafter the focus will perforce shift to China
managing world affairs because of successful change or the other way around in
case of failure.
3.
Comment. China has succeeded. However, the question is
will China be able to get to the point of managing world affairs? As and when
it does, will it take the responsibility of managing world affairs?
The Chinese
Way of Life
4.
There was
an old man in China. One day a Westerner found him furiously digging on top of
a cold mountain. Curiously, he asked the old man –“ why are you digging the
mountain old father”? The old man replied – “I am cutting the mountain so
that the sun can enter my hut and keep my family warm”. He indicated his hut; which was deep in the valley. The
westerner was amazed and again asked the old man –“ old father surely you can not
cut such a huge mountain down”. The old
man replied – “I know that the sun will not enter my hut in my lifetime. It might not do
so in my sons or even my grandson’s lifetime. But we will continue to cut the
mountain and one day the sun will enter my hut and my great grand children will
be warm”. This story is symbolic of the
agelessness of the Chinese way of life and spirit. China takes a long-term view
of things. Its distant goals are inscrutable.
5.
China is ruled by the unwritten canons of cultural
solidarity that has been a feature of its society since times immemorial. The
web of power that holds China together is the system of collectivity that is manifested in its traditional social institutions - the family, lineage, clan,
caste or class[1].
Confucian ethos stresses on value of authority, hierarchy, the subordination of
individual rights and interests, the importance of consensus, the avoidance of
confrontation and in general the supremacy of the state over the society and
the society over the individual[2].
Group or collective consciousness is central to China and this fundamental fact
needs to be understood.
6.
Comment. This has not changed one single bit.
The
Chinese Philosophy
7.
The Chinese philosophy is largely guided by two
factors. Firstly, the theory of the Middle
Kingdom where the Chinese emperor was the son of heaven and was ordained to
expand the Chinese civilisation to the surrounding territories. This historical
view forces Chinese to consider themselves superior to other civilisations.
Secondly, China’s ruthless exploitation by one imperialistic power or the other
including USA, Russia, Britain and Japan in the period 1839–1949 earned it the
sobriquet of the Sick Man of the East.
The Chinese will never wish to go back to that humiliating period. The
contrasting experience of its sense of cultural superiority as against
humiliation has guided Chinese leaders in charting a lonely path, no matter how
difficult it is. It aims to reacquire leadership over entire Asia if not over
the rest of the world[3].
Independence of thought and action is a keynote of Chinese dealings with the
world specially the Western one.
8.
Comment. Very clearly, the Chinese are striving to
assert their cultural superiority and simply erase their century of humiliation.
Their thinking and actions are “China first and last. The rest be damned”.
Path to Superpower
Status
9.
In 1984, Deng Xiaoping said “ we hope that for at least twenty years
there will not be a war, and hope even more for no war in the next seventy
years. Then we can have the time calmly to carry out our socialist four
modernization's … if we truly have twenty years, thirty years without war, no
war in fifty years, then this war has the possibility of being avoided”[4].
This statement in essence contains the sum total of China’s aspirations and
strategy for the forthcoming half-century. It is now proved that, by avoiding
war for the past twenty years China has been able to successfully implement
programs of change. If this success is extrapolated the following important
issues emerge: -
(a)
China intends to avoid war and carry on with its
modernisation for the next fifty years. In this period, it will concentrate on
improving economic, political and military strengths.
(b)
China looked at a clear period of thirty-fifty
years of no war. At the end of this time it intended to be fully prepared to
defend itself, match adversaries and emerge as a power to contend with. It has
already achieved a major part of this goal in the fifteen years, which have
since passed.
(c)
China aspires to superpower status at the end of
seventy years i.e. 2050 or thereabouts. After all war can only be totally avoided if one has superpower capabilities.
10. Comment.
The Chinese have followed a strict path of war avoidance as a route to
superpower status. However, this is undergoing a subtle shift. While they are not
embarking on conventional campaigns, they are definitely using the tenets of Unrestricted Warfare through Multiple Domains
to conduct their business. Xi Jinping seems to have advanced thr timelines for superpower
status which is reflected in the greatest military build up seen since WW2.
Chinese
Characteristics
11.
Human
Rights Violations. In 1994, Richard Nixon said “Today Chinas economic power makes lectures
about human rights imprudent. Within a decade it will make them irrelevant and
within two decades it will make them laughable[5]”.
However, it is a fact that people are packed off to subhuman detention/reeducation
centers. China has executed more people
in an eight-month period than the rest of the world in three years [6].
China was ruled for years with no defined legal system. The rule of law as
defined in the West has little meaning in China. Human rights issue in China
has something to do with Confucian ethos, submergence of the individual in the
cosmos of the state and lack of legal systems,[7]. The
problem is that China sees Western concern, as meddling in internal matters and
the West does not understand this fully. In the event conflict on this issue
will remain.
12.
Corruption.
Transparency International rated 54 countries for corruption in 1996. China
which ranked 50th is considered to be among the worst[8]. The
PLA, CCP and the bureaucracy all conspire to protect their share of the
corruption pie. In 1998 Jiang Zemin launched a major effort to reduce
corruption in the PLA. PLA businesses include arms manufacturing, smuggling of
CDs and prostitution. The success of such effort is suspect since in the
absence of a rule of law, free press and other constitutional safeguards
corruption is expected to fester. Rampant corruption in the long run might lead
China into the abyss.
13. Comment. No change in
Chinese characteristics since the past two decades. We should never wish this
away.
The
Chinese Backyard - Not So Ethnic
14.
Ethnic Han purity in China is
about 93%.[9]
However, instability arises because minorities stand guard over its insecure
backyard comprising Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tibet. In language religion culture
or appearance natives of Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shanghai and large
parts of Kansu, Yunnan and Heuliankang do not resemble Han Chinese. Geography
has cast a division on China. It has two autonomous regions i.e. Tibet with
Buddhist and Xinjiang with Muslim majorities. In addition there is the question
of a divided Mongolia. Uighur riots in Xinjiang have woken up authorities to
the problems of Jihad overflow in this area. There are reportedly 1000 Chinese
Muslims who are part of Al Qaeda. A live fear is that this area
will face secessionist movements[10]. Tibet will remain a burning problem until such time
Dalai Lama is in India. The economic angle is that these regions are China’s
most underdeveloped but with most potential. As a result entry
into China’s Backyard has high potential for success. China is aware of this and has commenced integrating
them into the mainstream by economic development and large-scale demographic
inversion.
15.
Comment. If the Chinese
crackdown in Xinjiang and their tirades against Dalai Lama are any indication,
they are still worried about their backyard.
South China Sea
16.
South China
Sea has large reserves of untapped minerals and oil, which are crucial to slake
Chinas thirst for energy. It also happens to be the hub of 25% of the worlds
shipping including routing for energy imports for most of its rivals like
Japan, Taiwan and Koreas. It provides a base for access/control over Pacific
Ocean, which is important to keep USA at bay and support its claim over Taiwan.
Until such time it cannot ward off USA from this area it cannot entertain super
power dreams. The Paracel and Spratly groups of islands have been considered
critical for control over South China Sea. China has laid sovereignty claim to
the entire sea including these islands. It wishes to acquire an exclusive
economic zone based on this claim. This amounts to claiming areas up to the
shores of countries like Brunei, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam.
Obviously, conflict has arisen with ASEAN countries, Japan and USA over South China
Sea.
17.
Comment. The problem has
been only compounded in the recent past and is only likely to inflame further. South
China Sea will be an international flash point well into the future.
Greater
China–One China-One Country Two Systems
18.
Greater China. In early 1990s, Chinese made up 1% of the population of
Philippines but were responsible for 35% of internal/domestic sale. In
Indonesia, they comprised of 2-3% population but owned roughly 70% of private
domestic capital. In Thailand, Chinese population is approx. 10% but own nine
out of the top business groups. Outside Japan and Korea, the Asian economy is
essentially a Chinese economy[11].
Overseas Chinese are much more able to do business in China than others due to
the phenomenon of bamboo network are. As a result, China
sees itself as the Core State of a Chinese civilisation. It expects Chinese communities in these nations to
subject themselves to the Chinese State. It has sought to project itself as a
worldwide representative of Chinese people whereever they may be. This is the
concept of greater China and is the first step to establish a base for future
super power status.
19.
One Country Two Systems Return of Hong Kong and Macao to China has meant that a
pure market economy coexists with the larger socialist economy of Mainland
China. The theory of One Country Two Systems takes root from this fact. The Chinese want to apply this
formula and cite this successful example to integrate Taiwan into the mainland.
20.
One China. In
1949 when Mao Zedong pushed KMT out of the mainland, Chiang Kai Shek proclaimed
it as the legitimate China. Taiwan has since remained a separate entity despite
all attempts at reunification by Chinese who consider this division as
artificial and unacceptable. Beijing demands that Taiwan
accept the principle of one-country two systems as a basis for negotiation with
the eventual aim of One China[12]. Taiwan rejects this claim and demands that Beijing deal
with it on an equal basis. Taiwan is economically and militarily strong enough
to keep Beijing at bay with USA’s support. PRC is aware that war with Taiwan
could be politically and economically devastating. A fundamental and core
objective of China is Taiwan’s integration. When that happens China will be
well on its way to super power status.
21.
It is well
known that till such time Taiwan remains out of Chinas grasp its expansion
program will make no headway. It is for this reason that Taiwan is under USA’s
security umbrella. This has not inhibited China to spread its influence in a
manner such that Taiwan will fall into its lap without a war at an appropriate
time. Till recently Taiwan’s policy was THREE NOS; no contact, no negotiation and no
compromise with the mainland. This has
changed since many in Taiwan believe that blood is thicker than water. China
has embarked upon a policy of entrapment of Taiwan in an economic and cultural
web to further its aim of integration of Taiwan. Trade between the two reached
14.4 billion in 1993. 20000 Taiwanese businesses had invested up to 30 billion
dollars in the mainland[13].
After all, it was Sun Tzu who said ‘ the acme of skill is to win with out a
fight’.
22.
Comment. The Chinese are
clear about their Greater China and One China concepts. Their effort is to do
away with the One China Two systems concept.Their attempt to do so is meeting
stiff resistance in Hong Kong.
The Chinese Dilemma
23.
China is a mass of contradictions. For every
plus there is minus. Emerging China poses many dilemmas to the world. The issue
is best stated by Samuel R Berger, US National Security Advisor in 1977 when he
said – the direction China takes in the years ahead will be one of the most
decisive factors that will determine whether the next century is one of
conflict or cooperation[14]. If Chinese economic development continues for
another decade as seems possible and if China maintains its unity during the
succession period as also seems probable, East Asian countries and the World
will have to respond to the increasingly assertive role in international
affairs of this biggest player of human history. The emergence of China as a
great power that is stable, open and non aggressive which works for a secure
international order is in the worlds interests. One of the most critical
challenges is to ensure that China makes the right choice and that is what many
are working towards and many in India are hoping for.
24.
On the other hand, we know that China has
woken up. The world including India is preparing for the eventuality that China
fulfills Napoleons prophecy. The Chinese dilemma will therefore continue well
into the century. In any case, Deng Xiaoping and the world man on the mountain
will be happy. The sun is set to enter their children’s hut and warm their
cockles in heaven.
Final Comment
As events have unfolded, late George Fernandez
was right. China has undoubtedly emerged as India’s No1 adversary. The challenge
posed by China to India’s growth is huge. It has come in many forms – Strategic
Encirclement through the String of Pearls, Collusive Support to Pakistan, Violation
of Sovereignty through CPEC, Creating huge Trade Imbalances, Constant needling
on the LAC and many more. They have also been able to rope in some self-centered
Indians who are playing Chinese tunes in Delhi these days and at times I feel
the Government is being played a Chinese rope trick. We need to look back to
see that the Chinese actions are not just a figment of imagination which
started recently. All Chinese actions are only a culmination of a plan which is
already more than three decades old and is constantly under revision. Is it
time India put together its own plan?
[1] China Today by SN Chopra – pp1.
[2]The Clash of Civilisations and Remaking of
the New World Order by Samuel P Huntington - pp225.
[3] This theory is elucidated in a number of articles only two are quoted -
China and the 21st Century by Scott
M. Leeb, Institute For National Strategic Studies and China and the World: A
View From Beijing by Swaran Singh.
[4] Op Cit- pp 61.
[5] The Clash of Civilisations and Remaking of
the New World Order by Samuel P Huntington -pp195.
[6] BBC program on China – 29 Sep 2001.
[8] What
If China Does Not Democratize by Edward Friedman and Barret L McCormick pp 318
& 263.
[9] Ibid.
[10] China and International Relations In the New
Milleneum by Hal Gardner.
[11] The Clash of Civilisations and Remaking of
the New World Order by Samuel P Huntington -pp169.
[13] The Clash of Civilisations and Remaking of
the New World Order by Samuel P Huntington pp 172.
[14] Power
and The Purse by Jean-Marc Blanchard, Edward D Mansfield and Norrin M Ripsman -
pp155.
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