The targeted killing of Maj Gen Soleimani
through a drone attack has set the social media abuzz. However, this comment by
one veteran was reflective of our situation. “See the use of modern intelligence used to
kill a general. I hope they do the same with ISI generals. We just talk, we cannot do it. Just some
strike and much is made from it by the political class for their political
gains. Our generals need to be thorough professionals, someone like Sam,
Thimmaya or Sundarji. Present lot are keen to join politics after retirement’.
That set me thinking and reflecting on the strategies and tactics used by various
countries to achieve their political ends. While some have full spectrum
capability to wage war others have limited spectrums. However, what is
interesting is that the way they develop and deploy their capabilities in their
context to good effect. In this article I have attempted to characterise some nations
and the way they wage wars. To some extent I am aware I am skimming the
surface. It needs a deeper institutional study to get the correct picture. However,
it gives major pointers as to where we are.
USA – The Full Spectrum War Wager
In my opinion USA plays all formats – tests, one dayers and T20s without
any reserve. It has developed and owns a mighty hi-tech military machine encompassing,
air, land, sea, space and cyber space. It uses its enormous hard and soft power
unhesitatingly when the need arises to protect and project its interests. Shock and awe are part of the game. It has not hesitated to carry out black ops
through outsourcing to non-state contractors/actors. It has combined military
operations with political end games ranging from regime change to supporting
dictators and autocracies to meet its ends. In the Asia Pacific region, it is
playing a test match with China through conventional capabilities. It is
clearly attempting to keep China confined to the first Chain of Islands in the
South China Sea. In the shifting sands
of the Middle East, it is in a constant One Day game. The stadia have been –
Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Libya and of course Saudi Arabia. It is also adept at the
T20 format exemplified by two operations – the transnational operation to knock
out Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad and the recent killing of Soleimani. All this
is backed by an extensive all-pervasive intelligence network which ranges from
humint to elint through to space-based int. Very importantly it has not
demurred from taking causalities. It follows the motto - No pain No gain.
China – The Rich Go Player
China is constantly playing GO through
a policy of unrestricted warfare. Always seeking a position of advantage, cornering
its opponents and squeezing their life out. End ambition– sole superpower. China
has been waging its conflicts in test match style- conventional at two levels.
The first level is it has been developing hi-tech conventional weapon systems
which it has not yet used. This capability is the implied threat to scare
people. This implied capability is force multiplied by selective propaganda to
gigantic proportions. That makes China a shark in the region. However, this
capability is untested and inexperienced. Very significantly, China has shied
away from using it. In fact, it has backed off from doing so. At another level,
the Chinese test match is all about disruptive technologies. Its rate of
development and deployment of disruptive technologies and militarisation of its
economic power through cheque book diplomacy allows it to execute the silent
soft kill to control nations. That intent is very clearly laid out in the
Chinese White Paper on defence with its emphasis on surveillance, cyber, AI, space
and electronic domains. Its huge foray to eventually militarise 5G technology
and Data spells trouble for India. Further
it is adept at using catspaws to keep it adversaries and contestants off
balance. Using Pakistan against India and North Korea against USA are prime
examples. The ‘String of Pearls’ is only a manifestation of GO theory to leave
very little manoeuvre space for India. If one digs deeper, my guess is that it
has been using Iran to keep USA tied down. No pain. Only gain.
Pakistan Army– The Bankrupt
Outsourcer
The cash rich Pakistani Army perpetually bankrupts
the nation. It is the eternal outsourcer of military affairs on the frontline. It
is constantly at war with itself and with everyone. It outsources itself to the
highest bidder. There after it outsources its tasks to jihadi non state
radicals to carry out state sponsored terrorism. It is the most professional
Army never to have won a war despite choosing the time and place of its
conflicts. Described variously as the most dangerous force on earth and most
untrustworthy, the Pakistan Army’s Ways of War are well documented by Christine
Fair. It imagines itself to be a test player when it brandishes its nuclear
sabre. However, all its conflicts are fought in the T20 mode. Fast, quick,
aggressive, innovative, violent and unscrupulous. It gains tactical advantage
but always loses strategically. It has however
mastered the ability to use religion as a weapon, created a sword arm through
its intelligence agency and is adept at nuclear blackmail. It is inveigling
itself to China off late after going through a military divorce with USA. However,
that might not work in its favour fully since it will be arm twisted to do USAs
bidding whenever needed. A harlot will be used in the end by everyone. All
pain. No gain.
Iran
– The Shadowy Innovator
Iran is emerging from the shadows and punching above its weight
despite the oil export embargo, US sanctions, or curbs on nuclear research. It
does not have nuclear or space capability or a great military machine. Yet, it plays
the shorter formats well above its height due to innovative war waging ways. Examine
the innovation and use of Explosively Formed Projectiles (EFPs)which fire a molten copper slug able to
penetrate armour. They have wreaked havoc and instilled dread in American
troops since 2004. Examine use of limpet mines in the Gulf to sink oil tankers.
Examine the Aramco attacks by drones. The Americans have all along known that all
these are made in Iran professionally. Now they have had the gumption to attack US bases deep in Iraq. Its hall mark has been innovative and
out of box use of technology deployed at least cost and with spectacular
effect. Examine the Quds Force which the USA considers to be a combination of
C.I.A. and Special Forces. Consider its ability to militarise Shiaism and stitch
an overseas Shia based alliance consisting now of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen
amongst others which is feared by Sunnis and Saudis in particular, respected by
USA and keeps Israel on its toes. All
this has been possible through a close-knit relationship between its military
and political structure. Clearly Iran has been using war as politics by other
means and politics as other means for war. It has consistently cocked a snook
at its adversaries and has pursued its nuclear goals openly. It is not without
reason that President Trump and many before him have wanted to sort out Iran.
They have not been able to do so since the days of Jimmy Carter when USA failed
in its attempt to free hostages held by Iran in the aftermath of their revolution.
Some pain. More gain.
India- The Democratic Player
India is a nuclear, space and missile power of consequence. Yet as conventional power it is in relative decline. As an unconventional power player, it is in its infancy. All put together it is worrying. That is entirely attributable to the democratisation of Indian war waging capability. Everyone – Army, Navy, Air force, Coast Guard, PMFs and Int Agencies have their own threat perceptions, doctrines and capabilities to fight their respective battles within the broad confines of a hazy two and half front theory which has never been enunciated. Our security apparatus resembles the erstwhile Indian test match cricket team. Lots of gifted players. Many scoring hundreds for individual fame but the team cannot win. Our generals, admirals, air marshals, bureaucrats, scientists, industrialists and politicians are those individuals who play on the backfoot and leave the ball at every opportunity. When it is time to really play, they realise that the pitch has deteriorated and is unplayable. However, our antecedents and battle experience of the Bangladesh blitzkrieg and Kargil destruction of Pakistan have stood us in good stead. Our delayed foray into the shorter formats, after suffering serious causalities, have been contentious. The well-executed surgical strikes signalled a strategic shift. However, they have not made the desired strategic impact. Overall, their outcomes were limited to domestic political fortunes. India must take the fight across and away from its territory unambiguously. The political act of abrogation of Article 370 has done more to convey a potent threat across than any military operation. Overall, we have tremendous potential but lack the cohesion to convert it into a maleficent kinetic. On home ground we are unbeatable like the Indian cricket teams of the yore. We need to start winning overseas if we are to become a five trillion $ economy in the next few years. We have punched far below our weight. Lot of pain. Some gain.
The Indian Way of Future War Waging
is Mental
When seen across the range of nations,
there is no doubt that each nation develops and deploys its strengths as per
its national interests. It is also very clear that all nations do not need full
spectrum capability to promote their national interests. Nations need resolve
and internal cohesion to do what they are supposed to do. When seen in this
context, India, despite all its strengths comes across as a soft nation. One
thing for sure. When we rise to be a 5 tn economy and with it assume added
global status, we will need a military security apparatus which is far more
robust than what it is now. Let us not put too much hope on the CDS alone. He
needs all-round support if he is to succeed. In his success lies India’s
success. I think as the principal military advisor to the government his role
in cementing the prevalent fissiparity and ensuring cohesion will be critical. We need to think and act differently. Get out
of the boots on the ground approach. Embrace low cost indigenous technologies
which are effective rather just being hi tech. We need to harness our potential
and innovate. Democracy and syncretisation of religion are our two great
strengths. Can we use them strategically? Afterall both our nuclear neighbours
have vast swathes of territory which are vulnerable to these factors. We need
to be imaginative and break our mental and procedural shackles. These are the
challenges ahead. Will the India military apparatus rise to the call of the
hour or will the CDS be another pole in the multipolar and underperforming military
set up of India.
Sir,
ReplyDeletePlease use less jargon. What is Maleficent Kinetic? Why do you want readers to runaround the net every now and then?
If you can have Poetic Kinetics then why not Maleficent Kinetics? I am sure the author has some latitude to express and tickle a reader's thoughts. Shall we call it "Latitude Kinetics". I am not talking about 1/2 mv2 :-)
ReplyDelete