BITE THE BULLET BOYS
TIME TO DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT
TIME TO DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT
Smell the Anasthesia
As per Economic Times, the outlay for defense in the budget
has been hiked by 5.8 % over the last year’s budget outlay. It is an increase
of 1.9% over the revised estimates. In actual or real inflated adjusted terms, it
is a contraction. ‘It is one of the least allocations since 60s’. ‘In an environment
of growing threat from our adversaries, this is grossly insufficient’. ‘We need
more for our 5 tn dollar economy’. This
is what all defense analysts, veterans, and media will say as part of their
analysis tomorrow onward. already there is such an article in Financial express. The Services will cry from hell to high water. They
will however continue to face smaller outlays. They must reinvent themselves to
do more with less as per a well thought out plan.If the defense outlay is not even part of the Finance Ministers budget speech
for two consecutive years, you should know where you stand. If the Indian
economy is in an ICU as many experts say, then the Defense Services are under a
knife on an operating table. Time to smell the anesthesia and brace for the
knife.
The Double
Whammy
It is evident that the country cannot afford what we are aspiring
for. We, of the defense establishment, must realize the limitations of our Nation and its priorities. Time to flip the record. Hear a
different tune. When I wrote on Modernizing on Tight Defense Budgets, the response was lukewarm. Very understandable. Defense Budgets are boring. I was a doomsday
predictor. My suggestions were unpalatable. Well the wolf has come into Red
Riding Hood’s little hut. It will not go away. I do hope some one will listen
to me now and at least look at my suggestions. The Government is not listening to
the Armed Forces. So Armed Forces must seriously think of doing something
different in case they want to modernize. We will do well to remember that this
contracting defense budget must cater for modernizing in conventional domains
as well as the new technology domains like Cyber, AI, Robotics, Unmanned Systems,
space and so on; which are costly in their own way. It is a double whammy.
Measures Suggested Earlier
In
my previous article I had suggested a whole slew of measures modernise on tight budgets. These were (a) Import Substitution in
Revenue Procurement, (b) Reverse Engineering, (c) ensuring high standards of Quality of production, (d) Upgradation of equipment
rather than procuring new equipment (e) Cost Analysis to keep the costs down, (f) an Operational
Relook so that there is realism in what we are going to contend with, (g) Lateral Induction into/out of CPMF, (h) Capital Procurement
Prioritization so that key items are procured smoothly and (j) Bureaucratic Integration
of Services with the MOD. I would recommend that these points be seen again in
the sobering atmosphere of a smaller purse. In this article I am adding a few
more points for consideration.
Manpower Reduction
There is no alternative to manpower reduction. My short point is have a hard look at operational requirements jointly now that the CDS is here. Define a joint
threat which the nation must contend with. Structure forces accordingly. Also let us be clear, we can have ‘Boots on the
Ground’ or a technology driven force. Not both and not anymore. We are cutting
our tail. That’s good. Time to cut some unwanted teeth and cull some holy cows
of defense. Slowly but steadily, Infantry has become the latest holy cow, not
to be touched. Not to be discussed. It is my sincere opinion that we have too
much Infantry which is not consistent to reality. Even when the Mountain Strike Corps was
sanctioned it was known within informed circles that it was unaffordable. The
same task could be carried out differently through double tasking.I have outlined some ideas in another article @ https://palepurshankar.blogspot.com/2019/10/war-is-changing-are-we-by-lt-gen-p-r.html. Hence the
CDS and Service Chiefs must take a reality check on manpower issues and reduce standing
Infantry in some form or the other. Some suggestions are outlined below: -
TA-isation. What is the necessity of holding all Infantry
Battalions at full strength all the time? is there a case for having a larger
number of Infantry Battalions as Territorial Army Units, which can be embodied
only periodically or when in field areas? That will cut manpower drastically.
RR Battalions. There
is no doubt that the RR Battalions have been a great asset to the nation. However,
things have changed in J&K after the abrogation of Article 370. Even the
new COAS has said so. Since the issues in J&K have changed, is there a case for transferring RR Battalions to the Home Ministry and follow the Assam Rifle Model?
The Assam Rifle Model has worked well for so long. There will be resistance to
this line of thought and that resistance will be “Empirical” in nature.
Armed Forces- CPMF Interchange. A
very fundamental way of reducing the cost of manpower is either to sidestep manpower
from or into CPMF. At the time of
Independence this was a norm. Today it is considered a NON-STARTER. However,
the opportunity opens after this budget again. If Project UDAN is to take off
and 100 airports are to come up, why cannot the CISF, CRPF and others be
mandated by law to take only personnel from the Armed Forces for airport and
other security duties? After all there will be a requirement of additional Security
for these assets. Let us take the argument further, if the Government of India
can pass an Act and law like CAA which gives citizenship to foreigners and enforce
it , why cannot they pass a law to sidestep Armed Forces personnel who defend
the nation, into CPMF, especially when there is an impending expansion? It is a
matter of breaking down some walls and Unholy Cows.
Indigenization Indigenization and Indigenization
Indigenization is the only major mantra to do more with
less moolah. Despite the clarion call of Make in India and everyone parroting
it at every opportunity, our big-ticket items are still foreign. PSUs, OFB and
DRDO have not come up to the mark in indigenization for many reasons. With
disruptive technologies making a Disruptive Impact on Military Affairs this
issue will only get worse. The Armed Forces must do things differently to
imbibe next gen technologies and make things cheaper for themselves. More of
the same is no more an option. Change the direction of attack. Here are some
options for consideration.
Defence Cells in IITs/ NITs. Our
Academic institutions are bubbling with ideas. We have not been able to tap
them. The Services treat them like they are an extension of DRDO or OFB. Microsoft,
IBM and Amazon treat them like royalty. No guesses as which way the talent will
flow. Further, in my three years at IIT
Madras, I am yet to see a senior IAF officer engage with the Institute. At this rate
we will go nowhere. Unless the defense establishment sets up empowered cells in
IITs/NITs things will not change. It is a well-known fact that ISRO launches
satellites at cheapest costs. However, the not so well-known fact is that IIT
alumni have contributed significantly to ISROs success. The RM, CDS and Def
Secy will do well to see what ISRO does which MOD does not. There has to be a frame work for interaction with IITs. (https://palepurshankar.blogspot.com/2019/07/a-framework-for-interaction-with-iits.html)
Retired Intelligentsia. Some
of our retired officers can do wonders for our establishment. However, veterans
are treated with suspicion by the serving defense establishment. Is there a case to educate
and sidestep retired officers into the defense industry? It must be done as a
program. Such thinking is alien to our system. Time to change.
Iran Model. Iran
has been under sanctions. It does not import more than 8 million dollars’ worth
of defense equipment. The rest is indigenous. The key technologies and products
which they employ in battle are totally indigenous. They do not have great
capabilities. However, with what they have they have created a sense of dread
in the minds of their adversaries in the area. What are they doing right? We could learn from them. ( https://palepurshankar.blogspot.com/2020/01/middle-east-stalemate-and-lessons-for.html)
Foreign Buys and Indian Spares. It
is understood that we must continue to procure from abroad in certain cases.
Even in such cases, we can insist that all spares will be Made in India. This can be enforced through offset agreements
and Maintenance TOTs. There must be a review of all cases which are not yet contracted.
Enforce the condition that spares will from India only. We will beat the trap
of foreign sellers selling low and milking us high and dry on spares for a long
time into the future.
Jointness
There is lot of hope that the CDS will bring in Jointness.
The bigger hope will be to see how he can motivate Services to maintain common
inventories, use common logistics, use common communications, use common
training facilities, use common infrastructure and so on. If these tasks which are
revenue oriented are taken up seriously, there will be a lot of cost saving.
In my assessment, the focus must be on Revenue expenditure optimization.
Knowledge
I think the Services must increase their technical
knowledge manifold. The idea is not to replace the engineer or scientist but to
guide him in a language he understands so that he must do the right things for
us. Similarly, there must be focus on Knowledge of procurement – both Revenue
and Capital. Very funnily, almost everyone in the procurement chain is a fresh-faced
journeyman with very little knowledge of what he is doing. As a result, cases
get mishandled and capability lags.( https://prshankar.blogspot.com/2019/12/knowledge-of-defence-acquisition.html)
Time is Money
It is well known fact that time is a resource which costs
money. In most of our procurement cases, there is always a delay. Cases get
stuck. They get queued up. They are put on back burners. As a result, we end up
paying much more than we should. This is because of two factors. The MOD is not
well integrated with the Services. Secondly there is an utter lack of
monitoring of cases or accountability in the system. Consciousness of time if
inculcated will pay handsome dividends.
Reinforcing Failure or Creating Success
Very early in my career I learnt that doing the same thing
again and again without a positive result is reinforcing failure. Our
procurement and capability building system has reached a point where it is only
reinforcing failure. We need to do things differently. We need to do things
jointly. We need to be realistic about our dreams. We need to cut our cloth
pragmatically. We need to create success with what we have.
An excellent evaluation and an eye opener in the present genesis of budget allocations and requirements of the defence services . An insight in the present context and to nurture the prevailing opportunities inherent within the Armed Forces and utilisation of the colossal intellect of the Veterans can be a decisive option .
ReplyDeleteThanks Gen Shankar for your immediate analysis
Very relevant in today's context. For the make in India program , particularly in Defence sector, there has to be a concerted effort towards mutual confidence building measures both with defence establishment and industry. Presently while intentions seem honourable action on ground falls short of seriousness to surge ahead with indigenization.
ReplyDeleteD
Very good write up. I wish CDS and others deliberate on the suggested reforms.
ReplyDeleteWe need to asses the amount of money that has down the DRDO drain and chanelise the funds to IITs, ISRO and organisations with a proven track record
ReplyDeleteA good academic paper ! In a scenario where there is a crying need to create more jobs for our youth the recommendation to sidestep our armed forces personnel in parallel PMF organizations doesn't seem plausible ! The need of the hour is to create more jobs !!
ReplyDeleteCutting or sharpening the teeth is the big ticket solution....suspended animation of a third of eqpt,three coy Inf bns with increased firepower in SP Coy, 35 tank regts,dedicated surveillance capability at brigade level,firepower firepower firepower from inf coy to artillery brigade level.The days of bodybags, 400x 400m FUPs and rods with grapnels are long over.Smell,sense,feel and read the new battlefield.
ReplyDeleteVery interesting and realistic guide for the future of our Nation and Armed Forces.
ReplyDeleteA good analysis and suggestions but... Who runs country ? The Politicians think they and their sole motto is to win next election..And help corporate to fund their election. Defence, common man, development are the tools they just use..
ReplyDeleteThe leaders of defence forces have failed to get their needs and busy in their personal gains by focusing on AR n postings.. the good people are exiting n only mean people r left ...All the suggetsugge made herewith r need of the hour but their is no distant possibility of accepting anyone of them by MOD...
Jai Hind !!
To have to fight on two fronts makes the reduction of forces impossible, but making them better equipped and more fit for battle is surely required.
ReplyDeleteTA as backup to generate a WWR is surely necessary.
Indegnisation should be paramount, like the space program we need our best minds on local weapon production.
Very apt evaluation and summarised it well. Also, major chunk of the budget goes to OF, DRDO and their employees. We must have procedures in place for their better accountability and productivity. In fact these institutions should evolve a self sustaining model.
ReplyDeleteA GREAT analysis. Is anyone listening. India should, lest we learn at our peril.
ReplyDeleteWe should also explore FDI in defence or using surplus land to fund modernisation, in addition to measures recommended here.
Very apt and well analysed. Hope the Powers that Be read and implement even a part of it
ReplyDeleteA great analysis and well written article.sir we need more heads in parliament from forces to understand the need and requirement of armed forces and raise issues only then sit will be in our favour. All veterans if have a organisation outside army and have a say with large support base can only help indegenise in consultation with private companies
ReplyDeleteA very pointed and well written article Gen Shankar. Must get the powers that be to read this article.
ReplyDeleteVery Good Blog
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Hospital Beds
Hospital Delivery Bed
Patient Bed
Surgical Bed
Medical Bed
Electric Hospital Bed
nice acticle bro
ReplyDelete