Had a live discussion with Mr Sree Iyer on the current state of affairs in Pakistan. The discussion was based largely on my article Wolf at Pakistan's Door. The Q&A session was very interesting.
As per reports the government is set to finalise the ‘Agnipath’ nee ‘Tour of Duty’ recruitment scheme, under which youth can enlist in the Army for three /five years and be known as ‘Agnivirs’. It is being envisaged that 25% of them would serve for three years and 25% for five years, the remaining 50% would serve for the full term till they reach the retirement age. This major reform is expected to significantly reduce the age profile of the Armed forces. This reform will also result in significant reduction of pensions. It will curb the ballooning salary and pension bills that are adversely impacting military modernization. Under this arrangement, after completing 3 or 5 years of service, the Army will help the soldier/officer to be recruited in other services. The soldiers would be given a pay-out along with priority in recruitment to certain government jobs, including the central armed police forces. An effort is also on to nudge corporate India into hiring such ...
I think Pakistan will focus on one thing to get its economy out of bankruptcy. It will export workers. On a per capita basis, Pakistan already has among the highest rates in the world of sending abroad laborers. The key for Pakistan is then to find places that will receive the workers. The answer is obviously GCC countries where it will find vacancies for Pakistani workers at the expense of Indian workers. There are 8.5 million Indians living and working in GCC countries. If half of the Indians in GCC countries do not get their visas renewed then 4 million Pakistanis will be able to move to the GCC and send back remittances to save the Pakistani economy.
ReplyDeleteFor Pakistan to pull this off they will need to switch gears in international messaging. Instead of talking about human rights abuses in the Kashmir Valley to Arab countries who don't care because Kashmiris are not Arabs, Pakistan will move on to making loud noises about the BJP and Indian government blasphemizing against Islam and the Prophet Muhammad. Nupur Sharma will still be around so it will not be hard to pin blasphemy on Modi and India. The Western media is also giving the Pakistanis fire support.
Thats a great analysis!
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