The Wolf at Our Door
We the People of India have the Corona Wolf at our door. It
has come all the way from Wuhan to devastate us. There is nowhere to hide. We must
fight this battle alone – as individuals, as localities, as communities, as states
and India, as a country. One for all and all for one - in true fashion as a
billion plus Musketeers. I, the Indian will have to fight for India my country.
India, my country will have to fight for me. In fighting this virus from China we
are fighting for each other to free ourselves from a pestilence, gain Strategic
Independence and Global Leadership simultaneously. In fact whether we are Hindu,
Muslim, Christian, Parsi or Sikh or whatever else, we have no choice. Whether
we are from BJP, Congress, DMK, Trinamool or AAP or whatever, is a matter of
irrelevance. Corona does not discriminate. We must all fight together and for
each other – rich or poor. We have 21 days to do so. We must and we can.
India’s Tradition of Gaining Independence
As a great democracy, we fought for our political independence
and gained it against heavy odds in 1947. We gained independence from famine
and hunger through the Green Revolution and Operation Flood to ensure our
food security. We led the world in eradication of polio and smallpox to achieve
health Independance. We gained a measure of economic and
financial Independence in the IT revolution of the 90s. Despite being threatened
and devastated repeatedly by natural disasters like earthquakes, floods and hurricanes
we gained a degree of independence from natural disasters post
the Tsunami of 2004. We have achieved some independence in scientific
affairs due to our successes in space, atomic energy and missile
technologies. This fight which we are undertaking now against the corona virus will
be a long one. In every disaster there is an opportunity. We can look at it as
the end of the world or as an opportunity to attain strategic
independence which we never had. I prefer to do the latter. In the
short term we will fight to ward of the death and devastation that this deadly virus
can wreak. In the long term COVID will set our economy further back in an already
financially bad situation. Mere rebounding back to where it all began is no
more an option. We must not shy away from the long haul towards rebuilding our
economy by taking focused steps to attain strategic independence. The
consequences of not understanding this and consequently not doing something will
be disastrous.
The 21 Day Fight
In my previous article I had mentioned that I have put my
foot in the mouth to state that as a nation we started our preparation to ward
of the Virus and are ahead of the curve. My foot remains in my mouth. We have
approached the curve. It is very sharp, but we are negotiating it at our terms.
As our Honorable PM has said – the next 21 days will be a test of our patience and
discipline. It will be a decisive fight. I have no doubt that we will come out
of it better than most. Of course, we will get hit. We will have losses. The
numbers could be large. Our resources are few. All these are known. We, in India,
are experienced in braving bad situations. Numerous disasters have taught us to
weather tougher times. We are battle hardened. We have our composite culture irrespective
of caste creed or religion, ingrained in us. It has taught us and weaponized us
with social distancing from childhood. If we get back to our fundamental Indian
cultures; we are fully armed to fight the Virus. This is not only for 21 days
or a little more but much beyond that. As a people we can come out better after
this. In order to be successful, we must protect the poor, the weak, the
unorganized and the old. We must empower them with the knowledge of the enemy and
provide them material wherewithal needed to fight it. No matter the cost. We must energize all channels
for it – Direct Benefit Transfer, Jan Dhan Yojna, MNREGA, PM KISAN or any other.
We need to also understand that there are no defined fronts in this battle. The
Corona Wolf from Wuhan is all around and waiting to get into our lungs to
squeeze our lives out one by one. Each one of us is in battle, fighting the
Virus individually. We are the front. The government is helping us to stay and
fight with the available resources at its disposal. If some of us become causalities,
our doctors will fight their battles to take care of us and put us back in the battlefield.
We must simply follow the orders of our governments unwaveringly with discipline,
discipline and discipline. Each of us are warriors to fight this scourge. How
we fight this battle will also dictate how our governments and health care
providers help us defeat the Chinese Virus. We must not overwhelm the limited
resources we have by straying from the path. This is our battle – yours and mine.
We simply fight it in a ‘as is where is’ situation. When the whole thing is
over every Indian will be a soldier. Note. He has gone to battle well led and
poorly armed. He will emerge victorious and poor, but with his head held high.
All I will say is welcome to the world of soldiering. That is how I felt for
four decades. Time to fight folks. Bring it on!
Beyond 21
Economically we were in doldrums even before the Virus hit
us. Our bankers, financiers’, economists in concert with shady and crooked
politicians aided by conniving regulators were skinning us behind fancy schemes.
This Virus has only worsened things. Our financial markets have tanked. Peoples
life savings have been wiped out over the past couple of years. It is not
because our industry is bad, or our economic fundamentals are weak. It is just
because our corrupt financial whizzes did not show liver. These shifty and
slick guys are sending us into battle against a deadly virus without the
comfort of a strong economy. It takes us back to 1971 when a poor India went
into the Bangladesh war with hardly any national wherewithal. Despite that, we stood
fast when the US 7th Fleet threatened to sail into the Bay of
Bengal. The Post War days were hell economically. We are in a similar situation now, we will
fight. We went into a globalization overdrive and started losing ground on our
strategic independence. On another note, when we started importing even ‘Made
in China’ Ganesh idols, we were not only losing our economy but hocking our
cultural independence. Slowly we became dependent on the Chinese for everything
since it was cheap. They ultimately gave us and the rest of the world a costly
Virus as a free add on. The first thing we need to do beyond the crisis is to
decouple ourselves from the Chinese and bring parity in a planned manner over a
defined time period. Both these will take us back to the Hindu Growth rates of
the yore for some time. We are talking of growth rates of 3-4%. So be it. Let
us tighten our belt and crunch down. Do the right thing for the nation and
ourselves.
Decoupling China
Our response to the situation beyond the Virus must be two-fold.
Firstly take steps towards Strategic Independence. Secondly take advantage of
the international decoupling from China. There is no doubt that there is already a
clear view that China cannot be the sole manufacturing hub and the supply chain
base for the world. The world needs trustworthy and transparent alternatives
beyond a predatory and opaque China. We must take resolute steps to be that
alternative. Already some steps have been announced in the Pharma and Electronics
sector. We need to expand it beyond that. Our handling of this Virus and
limiting the damage will be the determinant to put us in a pole position and
take advantage of the opportunity. Our handling of this Virus successfully will
also put us in a global leadership role. So a lot is at stake for our futures.
Steppingstones of Strategic Independence
I have been repeatedly talking of gaining Strategic Independence. We will gain Strategic Independence when we
are self-sufficient in defense, health, water, energy and information security.
Self-sufficiency in defence is the prime requisite for Strategic
Independence. It involves reducing imports significantly. This has not happened
despite the clarion call of Make In India. On the other hand defense imports
have increased. A serious relook is mandated. For instance, why are we
contemplating import of nearly 1500 guns from abroad when we have four modern indigenous
varieties to choose from? A major part of self-sufficiency in defense revolves
around getting hold of disruptive technologies like Robotics and unmanned
systems, AI, cyber, GIS, information warfare, additive manufacturing, and
electronic warfare. This crisis has clearly indicated that our health
services are woefully short for a population of our size. It encompasses
health care professionals, pharmaceuticals and health equipment. we can turn
this around to make India an International health care destination. We can
export health also. In doing so, capacities will be automatically increased. We
are a water stressed nation. Slowly we are heading the Pakistan
way to water scarcity. If that happens
our economic security and food security will be put to risk. This is the right
time to actualize some of our river linking plans. As far as Indus Water Treaty
is concerned, it is almost mandatory to put in infrastructure to draw our legal
share of the eastern river waters. India is an energy deficient nation with
heavy dependence on fossil fuels. It is time to take resolute steps toward
ensuring energy security through alternate methods and using the Thorium
cycle for nuclear energy. Afterall we have the highest reserves of Thorium in
the world lying unutilized on the beaches of Kerala. Lastly, we are an IT superpower
with surplus of information and data. We need a strong Information
Security system. With the kind of Cyber Warfare capabilities that China
is developing we need to first ask Huawei and ZTE to leave. Thereafter develop
our own systems. Even if it is 4G it is ok since it is better to have a secure
4G rather than a leaky Chinese 5G. If data
is the new gold, we need to monetize data and information. I am outlining the
securities which we need to seek even though we are almost in a survival battle
against COVID 19. The reason is that the lockdown of 21 days also gives us the
space to think and plan ahead. Very importantly if we strive to attain these
securities, we will also be undertaking economic activities to set right our system.
Most importantly, attaining strategic independence will enable us to face the
season of deglobalization which is now going to come up. We have to fend for
ourselves not only now but for a long time to come in future.
Reset
The Corona Virus will reset the international geopolitical
scene. It has exposed our enemies and adversaries fully. They are no more in
the shadows posing as friends or foes. It will also change their status
significantly. More on our adversaries when things evolve enough for an
assessment after some stabilization. Most
importantly it will open new opportunities if we are ready to grab them. A few things
are clear as they are emerging. India will have a central role in the Indo
Pacific Region and its standing in world affairs will significantly change. If
we handle COVID well, I do not see any reason as to why we will not walk onto
the high table. Also let me make another foot in the mouth prediction. Pakistan,
our bete noire will fade under the multiple impact of COVID, Economic Burdens
and Water Scarcity. Sweeping changes are afoot.
Belief
Lastly. Where does my belief come from? When in NDC in 2009,
a Portuguese lady working in the UN Commission for Refugees believed India was
already a superpower. Not because it had the military or economic might. But
because it had a capacity beyond that, to be human, inclusive and acceptable to
the world. She was talking of a power beyond the normal. I saw this power again
today. It needed draconian measures and an iron hand to impose a lock down in
China. It took only an honest and passionate appeal from a democratically
elected leader to keep 1.25 billion people at home. As I had said earlier, well prepared is half
done. Let us all finish off the other half of this pesky virus. Time to stay
within the Laxman Rekha and kill the demon called COVID from Wuhan.
Please circulate this widely if you feel there is some sense in what I have outlined. We have to be all on board at this watershed juncture. Most importantly please send this to anyone who you know who can make the difference. Each and every one of us can make the difference.
GReat
ReplyDeleteI can only say that this peace reaches the PM. To add on, I wish that the rest of the World should terminate all the businesses with China and isolate them.
ReplyDeleteLet us isolate CHINA for ever.Their deceit in not sharing the information on deadly virus has caused untold misery to millions. We need to bypass & reject this country's overtures for everything.
ReplyDeleteWas it a mistake by China at Wuhan or a well planned test in Warning to the Rest of the World against Stragic Nuclear Missiles. There is No Other way but to Isolate China, physically, economically and in all other ways, lest we countinue quarantine ourself as Individuals, as States or as a Nation. Choice is simple...
ReplyDeleteYes. The greatest lesson. Be self reliant in all walks of industry. Create own scientific values and dominant intelligent ego of unconquered dominance by leadership.
ReplyDeleteSincerely hope this article reaches all decision makers. There is also rumours around that it could be the evil design of Chinese. Well written article needs serious pondering.
ReplyDeleteThese are long term measures.All very valid.Any suggestions for now particularly for senior citizens,low in energy,battling from age related issues?
ReplyDeleteDeglobalisation a new world. All strategic moves seems emanate from economic interests more than any other like ideology, faith etc.
ReplyDeleteGreat insights & eye opener for all....
ReplyDeleteWorld is undergoing a period of strategic destabilization. Contagion has already created chaos over which the future narrative will be built. Its already clear how China is using its United Front Work Department to promote its success in fighting the contagion while marketing its capabilities in AI, robotics and social stability. How well the western world is going to contain the pandemic will dictate whether we can avoid the catastrophe? Is this the precursor for the World War III?
ReplyDeleteWell articulated and good insight.
ReplyDeleteShankar, balanced as ever.
Dear Shankar, I fully agree with your ideologies & conclusions. Luckily, we have an outstangly farsighted leader in our Hon PM Modi, who pro acted to save the country from the worst catastrophy we will ever face. There are some bad elements in the society who need to be sorted out by stringent measures!
ReplyDeletePress on regardless. Keep up the good work.
Jai Hind Jai Bharat Wande Mataram.
Very well written. I hope we take decoupling with China seriously and not go back rushing to buy cheap Diwali lights etc after the crisis is over and resume business with them as nothing happened with our short time memory.
ReplyDeleteExcellent analysis. This must reach the power centres which really matter. Let us all be together to build a new, vibrant,strong,self reliant India. Jaihind.
ReplyDeleteWe must have indiginrou production of each and every thing in our country. So many people have no work. If we start producing each and every thing we will not depend on out side world. Our young generation will not have to run here and there to find the job. Govt should endeavour to encourage all enterpreanues to start manufacturing all things which we import from other countries especially from China. Jai Bharat
ReplyDeleteVery well defined, let people of our country and government take this dragon as an opportunity. Let's us hope and am sure that always there is a way ahead. It is well known fact that 'Adversity is the mother of invention'. Why not India......
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