The Af-Pak region has come into focus
with the US-Taliban Deal. It is the start to the impending reduction and eventual
exit of US forces from the region. This deal has taken place in a kaleidoscope of
the global effects of the Corona Virus and the oil price war initiated by Saudi
Arabia. In the domestic front we are bedeviled by a slowing economy and social
disharmony; both of which cannot turn around with a change in national outlook.
We are at strategic crossroads with a seemingly resurgent Pakistan threatening
to sideline India to irrelevance. However, the rest of the world is also at its
respective crossroads since the global sands are shifting fast. In this reality how do we approach the Af-Pak
region?
The Pakistani View of Af-Pak
As per one of Pakistan’s erstwhile foreign
secretaries “USA will not continue financial assistance to Afghanistan beyond a limited period — one conjecture is a
year after the complete withdrawal. US allies will do likewise. Thereafter, the
responsibility should, in USA’s view, be that of Afghanistan’s neighbors
including Russia, China, Pakistan and the Central Asian states, none of whom
have the resources required. What should Pakistan do? Focus on completing the
fencing of our border and, to the extent possible, insulate ourselves from the
chaos that is bound to come. The Taliban, it is feared, will, as they
consolidate their hold on southern and eastern Afghanistan, adopt an unwise
victor’s attitude and thus perhaps drive ethnic minorities towards the
resurrection of the Northern Alliance as one way to protect the fiefdoms their
leaders have created in the last 20 years. Even if the Taliban act more wisely,
economic privation is bound to come and create the unrest and the economic
refugees that we must try to protect ourselves from”. That sums up the futuristic Af-Pak situation. However, a
point to note is that mention of India is missing. So as much as we are missing
the bus in the Deal, we are also absolved of the responsibility post US exit.
Indian Approach
to Af Region
As against this view in which right
thinking Pakistanis want to keep Afghanistan at bay, there are some gladiators in
India who want to send troops there in response to the evolving Af-Pak
situation. Mr Shekar Gupta gave five reasons as to why we should not put boots
on the ground in Afghanistan. However, I could not find even one reason to
commit troops there. Afghanistan is clearly a place where fools have always rushed
in when angels feared to tread. Today it is a place where idiots are rushing in
when failed angels (USA) are quitting. India should neither be an idiot nor a
failed angel. India should not add its head stone in this proven graveyard of
superpowers where Great Britain, USSR and now USA have bitten the dust.
What would be the aim of sending troops
to Afghanistan? To be a regional Power of consequence and assume international
responsibility in bringing peace to Afghanistan or execute a grandiose idea of
denial of strategic depth to Pakistan? My counter is that- is it necessary for India
to send troops to Afghanistan to be recognized as a regional power? Afterall
China is not sending troops there and yet it is a global power. USA is exiting
the area. It was and will remain a Superpower irrespective. Secondly. The strategic depth theory of
Pakistan is old hat. Look at it another way. An impoverished Pakistan is being
sucked into a bottomless pit called Afghanistan. At some point in future
everyone will abandon Pakistan including China without a rope to cling to. At
that point Pakistan will be strategically vulnerable. Strictly speaking there
are great virtues and opportunities in not sending troops there.
Why should we keep away from Af
region? Firstly. We are not wanted there. The Taliban hates us. Secondly our
entry will legitimize Pakistan’s role there. Thirdly we do not need an Indo Pak
war in Afghanistan when we have long borders and a LOC to fight across. Fourthly,
we will be embarking on a military adventure without a firm base since we have
no direct land border with Afghanistan. Fifthly our expeditionary track record
is poor. Remember IPKF and Sri Lanka? We went in to aid one side and discipline
the other. We ended up doing exactly the opposite. Sixthly. Our
politico-military-bureaucratic ensemble has proven fratricidal tendencies. Seventhly.
The state of our economy does not permit this expenditure. Next. We need to set
right our home base which is in disarray. Lastly, we have no solution in hand
for the Afghan problem.
Having said all this, the way forward
in Afghanistan is to genuinely help people. We should stick to that. In my
estimate, just doing that is enough in a country which is getting back to the
tatters of the 90s. A benevolent nation building assistance role IF sought by the
people once USA abandons this region will just be great. That much for the Af
Part.
Our Approach to
Pak Region
In my previous article I had mentioned
that Pakistan is back in the game once again as a front line state. At one level – yes. On
another level it risks what little sanity is left in its own chaos. I had also
mentioned that Pakistan is the more dangerous and unpredictable adversary under
the circumstances. That is so because it has nothing left to lose. It will take
the gamble of diverting some Taliban into Kashmir and stir the cauldron there. Too
good an opportunity to pass. On the other hand, its bankruptcy is public
knowledge. Significantly, under the circumstances of the current global
economic meltdown due to Corona Virus and the oil price war, its main credit
lines will close shop. China, Gulf countries and USA cannot and will not give a
farthing to Pakistan till they recover. The Afghanistan -Taliban- Strategic
Space frontline state expedition cum Kashmir meddling will be very costly for Pakistan
once the euphoria subsides. Though most Pakistani thinkers opine that the
Taliban and Afghanistan only spell trouble for the country, its foolhardy
military will continue with their wargames in Afghanistan since they have the
buffer of the Milbus and will soon get into the Narco Trade . Concentration on
its Western Borders will be at the expense of its Eastern Borders. Attention to
India also will leave the Third Front – CPEC open. Within a year or so Pakistan
Army will be overstretched to the hilt. This development will stir the cauldron
of the Durand Line. The Baloch movement, Pashtun Tahafuz Movement, TTP and the Afghan
Taliban will be a heady and live cocktail shortly. Last but not the least the
internal problems of Pakistan – social disorder, civil-military-judicial
imbroglio, inflation, food shortages, water shortages, lack of growth are still
there, alive and kicking. Pakistan is in a very vulnerable situation despite
all collusivity with China. Our responses must be tailored accordingly.
Our Lines of
Action in Af-Pak
POK and Kashmir. There is no doubt that our first and
foremost priority should be to protect Kashmir and continue with the effort which
commenced with Abrogation of Article 370. Instead of waiting for the summer to arrive
and then fend off infiltration it is better to be proactive. It is high time to
start the process of retaking POK. What needs to be understood is that it is
not a military mission. It is mission of statecraft. The steps to be taken have
already been outlined in my earlier article - a Plan to Retake POK.
Iran- Western Af. We need to speed up the operations in
Chabahar port and beyond ( https://prshankar.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-tale-of-two-corridors-beyond-gwadar.html). The rail -road communications beyond the port open a
bevy of opportunities in Afghanistan where India has traditional allies and is
a welcome entity. It also improves connectivity with Central Asian Republics. Keep
the lifeline open. The Chaos called Afghanistan is just going to get messier. Heed
the words of the Pakistanis themselves. India is not out of the game. It has
just got deeper into it and the swim is far.
CPEC. Whichever way I look at it, the CPEC is
Pakistan’s great vulnerability. The roads, power plants, transmission lines
other infrastructure are open for all kind of actions. For all we know it might
just disintegrate on its own. India needs to exploit this vulnerability to
force a recoil on Pakistan. It will achieve at many goals simultaneously. A
clear threat to CPEC will keep Pakistan at bay.
Indus Water
Treaty. India needs to operationalize the Indus
Water Treaty in a transparent and well publicized manner and fund projects
accordingly. We just must take what is our share of water from the Indus Basin.
The effect on Pakistan will be grave. It will give some solution to our own
water situation. For this to happen, there must be greater center- state cooperation
as also political consensus across the spectrum. We need internal statesmanship.
Durand Line
Politics. The Durand Line
is a festering scar of left-over colonial history which we have not really exploited.
The Baloch movement, Pashtun Tahafuz Movement,
TTP, the Afghan Taliban and most importantly the Pashtuns and Baloch people are
all actors across this unnatural line. A focused approach to this will reap
dividends.
The Secure Home
Base
Social Harmony. Any action to regain strategic relevance,
put Pakistan in place and dent the Sino-Pak collusivity will come only if our
home base is secure. So, the first step is to regain social harmony through
statesmanship. If that does not come through; then forget it and wait for all
kinds of external agencies and foreign hands to play merry hell with us. The
“Foreign Hand” djinn – a familiar byline of the emergency days - is coming out
of the bottle after a long time. Best to put it back into the bottle and face
reality.
Corona Virus
Effect. The Corona Virus has affected many
people and many countries. However, as things are unfolding, India seems to
have a grip on the epidemic and hopefully will not get adversely affected. We
might end up getting ahead of the curve. In fact, it will give us an
international fillip in many respects.
Oil Windfall. The second step is to grasp the economic opportunity.
The oil price war is good news for India. It is a wind fall from heaven and
will last at least for the balance of the year. We need to reframe our budgets and infuse
confidence in our finance and businesspeople. Start a virtuous cycle.
China Plus India. The world has started thinking of China plus
One for its international manufacturing and sourcing base. It is a great opportunity
for Make in India. In fact, the Government should be thinking of China
plus India. If the right steps are taken – investment, manufacturing
and international sourcing can take place from India. It will also lead to
better ties with China if we play our cards right. There is a huge strategic
opportunity here. Missing the bus will be very costly for India.
Military
Modernization. A secure home base is feasible only and only
if our military is modernized and up to it. Institution of the CDS is a great
reform. However, it is only the first step. Along with the CDS, the MOD also
needs reform. The need to carry out effective modernization under conditions of
stringent economic conditions needs a mindset change. For some reason that is
coming through in fits and starts with wrong notes and does not sound holistic.
Conclusion
There is no doubt that the Af-Pak
region will now start grabbing headlines for all the wrong reasons. We will be
affected by it. However, our approach to the Af- Pak region and the turmoil
therein if undertaken in a balanced and nuanced manner will pay us good
dividends. The opportunity is there despite the headwinds. It is up to us to
grab it.
There is no way India will send troops to Afghanistan. No country in the world has been able to subjugate Afghanistan be it the British, Russians or the US.
ReplyDeleteThis country has a lot of warlords with
their own following who are not willing to barter their power for democracy. I dare predict that this peace treaty between the US and Taliban is most likely to fail. With Bukhari and Abdulla not seeing eye to eye with each other even the slender chance will not work. The Taliban will regroup and hit hard.
The Only Way that Indian troops can be sent to Afghanistan is under an UN Flag, with a Large number of other countries including India participating as UN Force.
ReplyDeleteI agree we must not have boots on the ground in Af. However, I think we should continue our engagement with Civil society there and offering training to the Af Police & Military. But any military action by us will be fraught with disaster.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, I agree with your perspectives of the impact of Corona Virus on China. I think we should accelerate the Pakistani failure by encouraging the Balochs and targeting CPEC infrastructure.