This is a followup on my previous article India At Strategic Cross Roads
The Corona
Virus is dominating international headlines as it rightly should. However, India
is grappling with another virus – the US/Taliban deal. Both these viruses have a
bearing on the Indian strategic landscape. There is a subtle shift taking place.
While China remains our major threat, it has receded in the near term. The
threat from Pakistan has now heightened in the short term. What makes it
dangerous is that it is complicated and unpredictable. Needs a bit of an elucidation.
China is the
epicenter of Corona Virus. Its economy is going to take a hit. Once the virus
ebbs, China will rebuild. The rebuilding process will have to overcome the
effects of an economy which was slowing, the setbacks of trade war and the economic
dislocation due to the Corona Virus. That will take time. In this time period
of rebuilding, China will be wise enough not to flex its muscles hastily. The
window of opportunity vis a vis China has enlarged for us. That much is predictable.
This will be a major factor in our own modernization plans.
The problem is Pakistan. It represents a virulent
incurable virus beyond Corona. The frightening picture in the short term due to
the contradictions which have surfaced need understanding. The Corona Virus has no impact on the
Pakistani economy. There is nothing much to impact upon in any case. That is
the problem. Pakistan has fresh wind in its sails post the US-Taliban deal. Suddenly
post the Delhi riots, it has started equating itself as being better than
India. There is a new strategic strut about Pakistan – it could be assurance or
bravado. Call it what you want. We must understand it better since it will
affect us.
The Pakistani economy continues its
hemorrhaging march without a let up. As per Dawn “ Inflation
is around 14-15 per cent; prices of essentials (energy, food items) rapidly
rising; interest rate high; taxes jacked up substantially and slated to go even
higher; growth rate very low; unemployment high; job creation non-existent;
poverty increasing, as income inequality continues to be high; exports
languishing, imports suppressed through higher taxation; large-scale
manufacturing showing negative growth; and agriculture not doing well. Most of
the people in the country are suffering. However, at the same time, government
officials almost daily express satisfaction with the way the economy is stabilizing.
They claim that even international agencies acknowledge and appreciate the
progress Pakistan has been making”. Additionally, a silver
lining has appeared with the collapse of oil prices. This gives some breathing
space to Pakistan. However, on ground and at a different level Pakistan
is simmering. There are new voices coming up - women’s rights, students and
other activists’ protests. These are over and above the PTM and Baloch
movements. This cocktail of a poor economy and trouble on the streets makes
Pakistan a very vulnerable state. It could keel over with the government continuing in its merry ways
that is one way to look at it. However, in an irrational Pakistan that is the
wrong way to look.
Under normal conditions it would have
turned to China. However, China is beset with its problems. The CPEC is not
going well at all. A Bloomberg news report calls it a road to nowhere. Reports
are emanating that Gwadar Port is far behind the curve. The port infrastructure
is all castles in the sand. There were also reports that the Chinese were not
happy with the way things were being handled by Pakistan. Overall the Chinese
lifeline seems remote. So, it’s back to Uncle Sam and the Ummah.
Notwithstanding all this China will continue to arm Pakistan and ensure that
its nuclear capabilities are kept sharp and modern. That much is evident in the
Chinese ship which was detained with autoclaves in Kandla Port. The collusive factor will not abate.
Pakistan is
cock-a-hoop over the US-Taliban deal midwifed by it. There are many major tick
marks for Pakistan in this. Firstly, it might remain a failed state but will now
not crumble despite all other issues. The USA will now go to any length to get
out of Afghanistan to serve their interests. Its unholy haste is clear from the
fact that a declared terrorist like Sirajuddin Haqqani is given space to write
an op ed in New York Times! USA will now leave no stone unturned to keep
Pakistan afloat so that the Afghan Government is controlled and there is no
terror related threat to mainland USA. Pakistan knows this and will exploit it
to the hilt. Secondly, it sees itself getting back to its old days of running
the Government in Kabul by proxy by controlling Taliban. It will become the
kingpin of the region once again. Its strategic depth is being restituted. Thirdly,
it has already indicated through the Taliban that there is no space for India
in the new emerging Afghanistan. The portents for India are clear. Mullah
Baradar has not even mentioned India in his thank you speech. That is by itself
a feather in Pakistani caps. The fly in the ointment is that Pakistan might not
be able to totally control Taliban. The old Taliban was a militant organization
masquerading as politicians. The new Taliban appears to be political entity
which is using militancy as a tool. Their politics are not acceptable to other
factions and Afghanistan appears to be heading into a messy and violent future.
The uncertainty which lies ahead bodes ill for Pakistan. However, it will savor
the moment and worry about such problems on another day. Fourthly the fact that
Pakistan is back in the limelight in Afghanistan makes it important for the Middle
East, which in turn implies that the Oil rich Gulf States will once again have
to support Pakistan whether they want to or not.
What about
the situation here? Irrespective of the triggers, the explanations and the reality
checks (imagined or otherwise); the Delhi riots which happened when President Trump
was on a showcased and carefully crafted visit to India has been the icing on
the Pakistani cake. It has allowed Pakistan to come back into the game. Till
recently India was condemning Pakistan for aiding jihadists to export terror.
Now Pakistan in a reversal of roles, has assumed the lead of a chorus with
accompaniment from Iran, Turkey and Malaysia to save Indian Muslims. It is a
precursor to turn the Kashmiri burner on. The Delhi Riots have enabled Pakistan
to gain the moral high ground. This is amplified by the loss of sheen in our
economy notwithstanding the global slow down. When the impending knocks of the
Corona Virus are over, Pakistan might just start feeling that they are our economic
equals and will seek an Indo-Pak hyphenation. Make no mistake. That is the way they
think and that is the way things are going to pan out as irrational as they
seem. Already Lt Gen Khalid Kidwai the doyen
of their nuclear doctrine has gone on record on 6th Feb to state “ the reality is that it is Pakistan that
must shoulder the responsibility of maintaining the vital strategic balance in
the conventional and nuclear equation with India as the critical determinant of
the state of strategic stability in South Asia……….it is compelled to seek
security and strategic stability, by investing in appropriate nuclear weapons
through quality, quantity, doctrines and the concept of Full Spectrum
Deterrence. Pakistan’s response of strengthening its Full Spectrum Deterrence
in an operational environment of relative conventional asymmetry is therefore
apt and ensures that South Asia will remain strategically stable”. He was
just baring Pakistan’s nuclear fangs. India must be clear that Pakistan will
not miss a trick in queering India’s pitch. All this is evident when one reads
their opinion makers.
So where does
it leave India? The US – Talban Deal and the Delhi riots will act as a revolving
door to let Pakistan into Kashmir and the hinterland. One will spur the other. The
sum of all facts indicates that while we may be able to manage the rest of
India, if better sense prevails, we will now have to think a little differently
to integrate Kashmir. Already there are indications that violence in the Valley
is on the up. We should not be surprised if we see Afghani fighters back on the
scene. We should also not be surprised if ISI takes advantage of the Hindu
Muslin Fracture taking place to stir things up in the Valley and beyond. The
Intifada – the dream of all Pakistani Opinion Makers has a fertile and solid
ground to flourish from. The Pakistanis will increase infiltration, fight in
the hinterland, use the nuclear card and avoid conventional conflict. This will
be the manifestation irrespective of their tottering economics, social instability,
external debt or anything else. The US Taliban deal is their insurance.
Pakistan will go to all lengths to use all the religious levers in the Muslim
world to build an anti-India opinion. Once recovery starts in China, it will
hand over the game to the latter. One way or the other the duo will keep us off
balance.
What should
our response be? We need to get back to our basics. A multi-cultural and plural
India cannot get ahead without social harmony. The rocking boat must be
steadied. The faith of the International community in India, its democratic
traditions and peaceful social fabric must be restored. That will take a lot of
political maneuvering. The moot point is that do we have the pragmatism and
wisdom at the required levels to do so? Alternately venal politics will
continue, and we can live in a state of argued denial. The second response must
be in getting our economy back on tracks. The economic opportunity in the
corona virus must be grasped. This is the time in which India can make the pitch
for Make in India as an alternative / hedge for Make in China. Are we thinking
on such terms? However, if we are to continue to see banks, financial
institutions and heavyweight businesses collapsing like a pack of cards the
chances of an economic revival are bleak. Will any one shift to India? The
third revival lies in the Armed Forces. Our Armed Forces are poorly equipped with
aged weapons. It is not a state secret. The newly promoted CDS wants 1/3 of the
men to retire at 58. Also, he has given an indication that the Navy needs to
curtail its expansion plans. The Army Chief has said that the role of Tanks and
Aircraft is diminishing in the battlefield. Seen together, one wonders what is
left? An Infantry Only Armed Force? The overall strategic signaling is also coming
across in a disjointed manner. More about this in another article. However, one
thing is clear. It is time the CDS and the three Chiefs sit together and come
out with a joint statement. In my opinion they should be able to spell out how
they are going to deal with an unstable and irrationally rational Pakistan in
the short run. How do we get relevance in Afghanistan? How does the nation get its
mojo back in international fora? That must be on an as is where is basis. At
another level, they should be able to give an outline of the long-term shift and
modernization agenda of the Armed forces and a cogent plan to usher in
jointness. Like all things, jointness is a mental phenomenon and hurdle which
we must tackle. Finally, all I would like to comment is that if we are not able
to affect a turnaround the 5tn Dollar goal will become a bridge too far.
PS
Recently I
attended the Reunion of the Regiment of Artillery. Gen SF Rodrigues, our ex
COAS and Hony Col Comdt of Artillery spoke to us. He gave us all some solid and
simple advice. He reminded us that the Armed Forces of India exist to uphold
the values enshrined in the Constitution of India. Nothing more. Nothing less.
Today I attended
a get together of Ex NDA officers at Chennai, where the senior most was Lt Gen VR Raghavan, ex DGMO, from the 11th course NDA. Many topics were
discussed. The issue that Armed Forces exist to uphold the Constitution found reverberance
in this event also.
This sentiment has come up twice in two weeks for mention. I will leave it at that for all those who are serving to ponder over. I will only remind them that the Indian Armed Forces are the last bastion of the nation and we cannot crumble. ( https://palepurshankar.blogspot.com/2019/04/political-crumbling-of-last-bastion-by.html)
This sentiment has come up twice in two weeks for mention. I will leave it at that for all those who are serving to ponder over. I will only remind them that the Indian Armed Forces are the last bastion of the nation and we cannot crumble. (
As always you have brought out a number of valid points.We have put ourselves in a crevasse and unless we pull all stops recovery will be difficult.I fully endorse the point regarding Armed forces and protecting the constitution
ReplyDeleteRajagopal
ReplyDeleteBang on, Sir.
ReplyDeleteEven before Corona, most of our Think Tanks, Planners and Executives have lost their pragmatism and vision affected by another virus called MTS (My Tenure Syndrome). Unfortunately, MTS has seeped into the uniform too, regardless of the hue.
Still, i dare to be an optimistic, even at the cost of being fool hardy. i strongly feel, as the soldier doesn't think, that India will avail this opportunity to revitalise itself and emerge as a poeer to reckon with in this region.
Jai Hind
Very apt and precise analysis, hitting the nailhead with a sledgehammer. There is paucity of thinkers and paralysis of policy at the top. Balakot/Uri cannot be milked anymore. We need a statesman and she/he is nowhere in sight.
ReplyDeleteNicely written, bringing out many thoughts to think over & act!
ReplyDeleteUpholding the Constitution....a very important point. Yet lots of men in OG now think Saffron. That's a concern
ReplyDelete