Covid 19 is causing a humanitarian crisis of epic
proportions and is roiling people worldwide. As per reports the peak of this
pandemic seems to be still ahead. Its outcomes might be even more disastrous
than what we have seen so far. The world is on the cusp of change
notwithstanding the human misery trail the virus leaves behind. Everyone is
predicting a contraction of the global economy and evidence suggests that it
will be so. However along with the economic and humanitarian upheaval, there
will be geopolitical changes and realignments. In fact the process has already begun.
I am going to throw my spotlight on a few issues which are very evident and
relevant to India.
Turning inwards, I must say that we, in
India, are gamely fighting the Covid 19 scourge.
India seems to be ahead of the curve at this point of time. The steps taken by
the government are praiseworthy. It is too premature to predict if India will
escape the brunt of the virus. However based on available inputs, I will put my
foot in the mouth and say that India will remain ahead even if events take a
turn for the worse. As our PM has said – ‘Prepare but do not panic’. They also say
that well prepared is half done. The mood in the media, social media and in
public places seems to be one of determined optimism borne out of preparation.
Having prepared for it, let’s brace for the impact. As we are bracing for the
impact, we should also start preparing for the geopolitical changes which will
occur. What will be the manifestation of this change and what does it portend
for us?
China
Undoubtedly China has been the
epicenter of this virus which started around mid-November and has been most affected
by it so far. The peak seems to have passed in China. However its aftereffects
are going to be felt for long. The adverse economic impact on China seems to be
predictable- its GDP will go down, it won’t be able to meet the targets of its
trade deal with the USA, its business will be disrupted, and its recovery will
be slow. However, the Chinese Government being what it is will pull out all
stops to rebound once the situation stabilizes. The question is – will it be
able to recover the lost ground?
Covid19 is the second major epidemic
to originate from China. The first being SARS. Is China the epidemic center of
the world? That is a branding China will find hard to shake off. From media
reports, it appears that China has not been totally transparent in its
disclosures regarding the epidemic. This is borne out by the fact that WHO has
not been included in the investigations of the outbreak. So the veracity of the
final report – a purely Chinese one- will be suspect. A whitewash is possible. The true story and
numbers will never come out. Its internal and domestic actions have also not
been transparent. Stories of China’s action and response to its own citizens
and foreigners has been draconian. Moreover, it has taken steps to delay people
being evacuated from its shores when it was being felt internationally that China
was not doing enough for foreigners. All this points towards one basic fact – ‘Lack
of trust’. If I did not trust China earlier, I will trust it even less now. Let
me put it another way. China has not been able to generate international trust
in this episode and this will lead to ‘loss of face’. It also indicates that
China does not know how to lead the world. This sentiment is reflected in the
fact that international players are already talking of China Plus1 in sourcing,
manufacturing and supply chains irrespective of the costs. This kind of hedging
will be permanent. In turn it means a long-term effect on China. Who will buy
Chinese goods, even if their manufacturing is up and running? Italians? Iranians? Spanish? or other
Europeans? The pandemic will end up in a global recession that will dampen demand for Chinese goods.
What about BRI? That mega project will take a mega knock. Make no mistake. The
knock will be both economic and strategic. Most importantly, there is a good
chance of a political fallout in China.
It cannot be business as usual for China after this. It might
continue to be the second largest economy; however, will it be the same China
which has been aggressively trying push USA off the perch. Ask yourself another
question. If a similar incident happened in the USA would countries have lined
up to evacuate people from there? The road ahead for China seems long, hard and
uphill. Prepare for that change.
Pakistan
The Virus has just started spiking in Pakistan.
Porous borders with a divided and troubled Afghanistan which has no choice or
ability to combat the virus and a badly affected Iran bodes ill for Pakistan. My
guesstimate is that reality will dawn on Pakistan in a week or so. Till then it
can continue to talk of Kashmir even in this crisis. After that it might envy
Kashmir;which might be better off. Given the population density and unplanned urbanization in the nation,
the portents are grim. An underprepared and bankrupt Pakistan will be in big
trouble if the virus starts multiplying as indications are coming in. Add rampant
inflation, imminent food shortages and lack of capacity aided and abetted by
endemic corruption – the mix is heady. In a couple of weeks from now Pakistan could
be one of the worst cases, unless the oncoming summer heat saves it. The real turmoil will begin once the virus recedes.
Its overdependence on China will weigh heavily on its people. Drop in oil prices
will give temporary economic relief only. Reason being the Gulf economies, with
reduced revenues, might not be able to subsidize it anymore. Overall the oil
shock will be disastrous. USA will not come to the rescue given the turmoil it
will itself now go through. As per Pakistani thinkers the virus is expected to
cause supply chain disruptions,
amplify the rampant inflation, suppress consumer and business confidence, rattle
the fragile economy and drag the low GDP growth rate further down. In
the process, food shortages and joblessness are expected to kick in big time. We
should be prepared for the worst from our worthy neighbor. Will the deep state
once again emerge from the shadows?
SAARC Countries
(less Pakistan)
The other SAARC countries less
Pakistan do not seem to have been affected adversely by the virus yet. However they
face the problem that they do not have the capacities to combat the virus if it
takes root in their countries. War ravaged Afghanistan is the most vulnerable
in this regard and will need a lot of aid and assistance very shortly. In my
estimate the next most vulnerable country will be Sri Lanka. The PMs video
conferencing call to all heads of SAARC countries to chalk out a joint strategy
to fight the outbreak is timely and significant. Setting up a fund for fighting
the virus with an initial commitment of $10mn is notable and laudable. The fact
that India has reached out to its neighbors on priority and will stand by it is
very pertinent. In due course all these countries will realize that their
destinies and those of their people are more tied up with that of India in most
manners rather than far off China, which can only debt trap them and leave them
to their fate when the time comes.
India
India is seeing a steady increase in
cases by the day. Equally it is also seeing recoveries. Most importantly
fatalities are few and it is hoped that it stays that way. The Governments at
all levels are cognizant of the dangers of the virus and are taking steps to
soften the blow. There will be criticism of the way the whole issue is being
handled. However considering that ours is a complex country, we are going about
it quite well under the circumstances. What is apparent is there is a plan, there
is thoughtful debate, there is criticism and there are commensurate results so
far based on some definite action. India has almost self-quarantined itself by
imposing timely bans. It has airlifted its citizens from affected areas without
a second thought. Something which all Indians need to be proud of. We will take
our hit. Make no mistake on that. Our economy will be dragged down. So will
that of others. However in a relative sense, we might end up being better off. When
the RBI does not announce a rate cut it is criticized. Equally when the US Fed
announces a rate cut it is taken over coals as a panic reaction. Hence that
issue is best left at that.
Most importantly India has provided
leadership to the international community in this crisis. Its outreach to SAARC
and G20 nations has drawn international recognition. In due course, the centrality
of India in the Indo Pacific region will come through as a fallout. We are now in a state where
everyone will look towards us. Whether predicting that the situation will
remain so is a foot in the mouth factor. However I will risk it and say once
again that we will remain ahead of the curve irrespective of how sharp it is. A
fact that one must realize is that India is a disaster-prone country, ravaged
by floods, accidents, cyclones, disease, poverty and N number of things. At a
very primal level, we have the strength to go through these disasters very
well. The inner strength of the nation and its people is far more than its
economic or diplomatic or military strength. That strength is coming through. That
makes me a proud Indian.
Very importantly, this episode gives
us a chance to re-examine all those theories of ‘String of Pearls’, ‘Strategic encirclement’
‘Sino-Pak collusion’ et al. At the end of this, the pandemic will open avenues
to recalibrate many equations. The equations will not disappear; they will just
change. We need to be cognizant of that. The most important issue that we need
to now ensure now is that the ‘China Plus1’ formulation being propagated is
transformed into a ‘China Plus India’ formulation. The opportunity will open in
due course. Of that, I am confident. We need to grasp the moment. For that to
happen we need to shed the prickliness of CAA-NRC-NPR combine. This episode
gives us an opportunity to put that on the back burner and think through it
with the wisdom of time. Its reincarnation should be an acceptable potion for
all hues of our society.
Conclusion
After this episode, the world would
have realized that everything from undergarments to top hat need not be cheap and mass made in China
lest we end up with another episode of another costly virus in future. That is
the major geo-political lesson of this episode. The biggest learning to me is
not that India is a great economy or a great military power or a great
political power, but it is power beyond that. That is coming through. Jai Hind.
The basic data and statistics on which this article has been based has been obtained from the site
Very fine piece. Logically composed and narrated interestingly. 👌
ReplyDeleteRe:
ReplyDelete> not that India is a great economy or a great military power or a great political power, but it is power beyond that. That is coming through. Jai Hind.
I agree with you. I think the best description of the state of India is the word antifragile https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile - we will discover the Indian ecosystem/society is quite antifragile. While the Chinese will (indeed) bounce back, the world-at-large will find them quite fragile with all its consequences.
Some of the perspectives of the Chinese ecosystem not addressed (as I suspect a lot of us don't have very much idea about) is the Chinese society - whether they will rebel/revolt (given that China is headed downwards) or will submit.
This we shall watch interestedly in the coming years.
I think one more impact on Pakistan will be the level of support that China can give.
ReplyDelete1. The global recession because of the virus will hit China in many ways significantly reducing its resources and it will need to focus inward to rebuild its reputation and standing in global society. This means, resources will be diverted away from other areas (of which Pakistan is one).
2. The pandemic & political fallout will have an impact on its society and my guess is that they will be weaker than before. This will reduce (significantly reduce?) their adventurism (SC Seas etc., etc.,) and I'm guessing they will be more conciliatory to India.
I'm thinking this might be the time for India to complete the boundary negotiation with them as well as (if possible - I so wish India had its own SWF) buy out some of the key parts of the BRI Initiative as well as some of the IP created by them...
The important point is that how long will this last.Experts predict 12 to 18 months till an effective vaccine is found.
ReplyDeleteSo it is a long period to cope
All interdependent economies will be effected.Will it lead to insular economies of the past again.