MILITARY SECURITY MUST
REMAIN IN FOCUS
J&K and Pakistan
1.
Amidst
a severe global pandemic, Kupwara incident in which we lost five of our brave
soldiers is a grim reminder of what might be in store for us in the future. What
will it take to instill some sense into Pakistani leaders especially its power
brokers, the Pakistani Deep State to desist from undertaking such acts. Since Mar
1st there have been over 12 incidents of killings in which seven Security
Forces (SF) personnel and 21 terrorists have been killed including 7 civilians
from the UT of J&K. If we were to add the number of cease fire violations which
are in the past few days on the increase, the situation becomes even grave. Pakistani
army violated the cease fire 646 time between 01 Jan to 23 Feb 20. The CFVs as we
all know take place to facilitate infiltration across the Line of Control (LC).
Cases of CFVs have sharply increased in the month of Apr 20 and as summers set
in terrorist attacks are likely to mount further.
2.
The Economic Times reported on 08 Apr that
terror infrastructure and launch pads across the Line of Control (LoC) are
active as Pakistan has upped efforts to push in terrorists into India. This
coupled with the heating up of the valley are clearly a signal that country
cannot at any cost let its guard down as far as its external / internal
security situation is concerned. We cannot bank on the humanitarian
consideration that in the time of a global health pandemic, Pakistan and to a
certain extent China will cease fomenting trouble for India.
China
Factor
3.
China has the COVID-19 situation fully under
control and started flexing its muscle economically and militarily. Purchase of
1.71 crore shares of HDFC in a falling Indian Stock Market by Peoples Bank of
China appears outright hawkish. India has come out with a revised policy on FDI
following this incident to prevent Indian economy from being taken over through
backdoor. This is not a one of event. China has been eyeing investments in
other country’s markets. Australia, Germany and Spain have also tighten their
rules on FDI in fact singling out China. Wining without fighting is an old adage of the
ancient Chinese thinker Sun Tzu. This is exactly what China is trying in a situation
where nations are still reeling under the pandemic induced economic crisis. India
has done well to intervene in a timely manner by coming out with a revised policy
on FDI to prevent control of our economy by a nation sharing land borders which
is still not settled and remains under dispute. Similarly, it continues to ramp
up its defence production of high value naval platforms such as the Landing
Ship Docks, and drones despite COVID-19. Voice of America News has also
reported Chinese military activities of the coast of Taiwan. China has also
increased its patrolling activities in South China Sea. The recent sinking of a
Vietnamese fishing vessel indicates the bullying intent of China. Closer home
as per Business Insider India quoting DW media report, China has included parts
of Arunachal Pradesh within its international boundaries, an updated version
issued by Sky Map has revealed.
Mating of Threats
4.
Worsening economic situation due to over $106
billion debt, inefficiencies in handling the rising cases of COVID19 and
deteriorating internal security situation are turning Pakistan into a failed
state. Historically in such scenarios Pakistani Army has taken over the reins
in the garb of stabilizing the situation. Should this happen then it would be
in mutual interest of China as well Pakistan to up the ante against India. Pakistan
to divert attention of its public from deteriorating all round internal
situation and China to make India fall in line should India go along with the
current world opinion against China over COVID -19. China would most likely play the game through
Pakistan and not get directly involved with India militarily.
Suggested Approach
5.
We need to remain prepared against any eventualities.
First our intelligence agencies must not be found off guard to either major instances
of terrorism / bio-terrorism or a possible external misadventure into India
especially in Kashmir. Second, while COVID19 will remain our priority, the
Armed Forces resources must be deployed with great caution and care. The Armed
Forces are capable of dealing with their primary responsibility of external
aggression or the secondary responsibility of internal threats. However, it is
the bureaucratic machinery that needs to be cognizant of such possibilities in
a heightened COVID -19 situation. Third, military threats will now have
dimensions hitherto fore unseen in warfare of the past such as hybrid, proxy,
cyber, space, electronic warfare, information war, psychological operations and
also bio war. This necessitates for all agencies to function in unison and
synergy. Fourth, we need to keep our high impact defence procurements such as
Rafael jets, S400 and Sea Guardian armed drones and P-8I anti-submarine warfare
systems on course. Simultaneously go all out to encourage indigenous defence
production through Make-2 program. Finally, we need to go beyond SAARC and isolate
Pakistan diplomatically and economically. We must handle China with caution. The
current approach of wait and watch without letting down our preparedness on
northern borders must continue. Its forays into the maritime domain must be
kept under check through international military exercises and alliances such as
the QUAD (Japan, America, India and Australia) and JAI (Japan, America, India).
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