Sixth Review: https://palepurshankar.blogspot.com/2020/04/corona-combat-sixth-review-defeat-into.html
BETWEEN CHEAP CHINESE ITEMS AND THE
VIRUS,
I WILL TAKE MY CHANCES WITH THE VIRUS
BE INDIAN BUY INDIAN
The
Current Status
Seventh
review! Long Time! Where are we in this fight? Well ahead of the curve. The
Virus has not been able to do much in India. The facts speak for themselves. Mumbai,
our worst hot spot has rarely had as many cases in a day as New York had deaths
in a day. The number of cases in India is low. The transmission rates are low. Doubling
rates are longer. The mortality rates are low. The graphs below tell a clear
tale.
PERCENTAGE OF CASES PER TEST |
FATALITY RATES (% OF TOTAL CASES) |
The
Virus is not killing people as much as we thought. India is intact. Looking
ahead, we will continue to have losses. The Virus will not vanish. We will have
to contend with it like Malaria. No medicines. No vaccines. Largely with
behavioral changes and discipline. It will be a long haul. Eventually India will
win this battle at least cost.
Of that I have never had a doubt. It keeps getting reaffirmed by the day. While
the tactical battle continues to rage, let us look over the horizon. In my
article Fighting Corona Beyond 21[1], I had stated – “In fighting this virus from China we are fighting for each
other to free ourselves from a pestilence, gain Strategic Independence and
Global Leadership simultaneously.” It is time to seriously look as to how to achieve it
with a Vision and a Plan.
The Shape of Future
Most
of the developed world is reeling from the impact of the Virus as it rages on. USA
is stricken, impaired and struggling. Untrustworthy China is rightly in the
dock as the global villain. UK, Russia, France, and rest of the Europe are not
yet out or the Viral Grip. S/Korea and Japan are tentatively taking steps to
recovery. International institutions are in silent retreat mode. To say that the fallout will be huge, economies will be in recession
and a new world order will emerge is to state the obvious. However certain
trends are clear. Trust Deficit is rampant. Globalization is passe. The Virus has
ensured that all countries fight their battles in isolation. Brakes on travel
and movement will enhance the oncoming Isolation Era. The 'Sinic' and 'Western' Civilizations are set to confront, compete, and decouple with/from each other.
The Japanese and Hindu ‘Swing” Civilizations as described by Huntington will come to the fore. Decoupling from China will transcend economics. The process
has started to roll. China’s internal fragility will drive it to be virally aggressive in all
international activities. With the fall in oil fortunes, the Middle East will continue with its muddled never-ending conflicts. Recession
has always been harsh on the poor. The global poor will suffer. As new blocks and
leaders emerge, the Indian opportunity lies ahead.
The Opportunity
What will be our status when the Viral wanes?
Sure our economy will be further in the dumps. Our masses will stare at hunger,
poverty and joblessness. However we will have our people intact. Reuters says ” While death rates in some countries have risen sharply
in recent weeks, in India the opposite seems to be happening, at least in some
places, leaving hospitals, funeral parlours and cremation sites
wondering what is going on[2]”. Huge morale
booster. Indian consumption will spur our economy like it has done timelessly. India
might be poor, but Indians are rich enough to bail it out. The richness is
beyond economics. Oil prices down is great news for us. This interregnum has cleaned
up our environment. Most importantly, the world will eventually acknowledge that
India exhibited a power beyond the normal to deal better than the rest with
resources worse than most. At the apex will be something beyond value – International
Trust. That was signified by President Bolsanaro of Brazil talking of Indian HCQ
as ‘Sanjeevini Bhuti’. Sure
we would have lost a lot. We must rebuild. However the opportunity is that we
can build towards a better tomorrow in this season of international reset. The
building blocks revolve around stabilization, deriving decoupling benefit, attaining
self-sufficiency and thence to assuming global responsibilities. These
interactive building blocks need elaboration.
Stabilization
The stabilization phase of India’s journey
has already commenced with the harvesting season. We will now have to get back
on our feet. If we can keep 1.3 billion Indians nominally occupied, we are on
our way. On ground it means jobs revival in the informal and formal sectors.
How we facilitate and regulate this is the huge challenge. Regulation is
required since we must live with this invisible beastly virus forever. Movement
and travel, fundamental to any economic activity, will be a challenge of its
own. Stabilization needs working together, as Indians, irrespective of Caste,
Creed, Religion or Politics. Needs a national consensus approach. Can Mr Modi
emulate Winston Churchill?
Decoupling Alternative
Attracting
Relocation. Attracting
relocators to derive decoupling benefit from China is the myopic idiot’s way of
looking at it. Look beyond. India is a decoupling alternative to China for many
reasons. India is central to the most populous regions, fastest growing
economies, international economic activity, conflicts and major disasters of the
world in the last two decades. (see maps below). It confers a huge logistical cum financial advantage to
any global manufacturing and supply chain due to shorter distances and turn
arounds. A rough cost advantage could be 10-15%. Drive that home.
Additionally, the Democratic, Educational, Cultural and Soft Power dividend of India is high. Leverage that. There is international experience of the software and automobile industry with their main hubs at Bengaluru and Chennai to showcase. Of course there is the Virus to drive the relocation. Reassure relocators holistically. They are a spooked lot. However to derive the due benefit we need regulatory amendments.
Chinese Resistance. We also need to be cognizant that decoupling
will be resisted by China. Increasingly we will find China hostile to us. Mutatis
mutandis a Toxic Pakistan and Viral China will combine to degrade our security
environment to scare Relocators away. Security and Decoupling are intertwined
inexorably. Never lose sight of that. A different shade would be that Chinese
money bags will come in with attractive FDI offers to fund relocation with
Chinese control. That gives them an entry into India’s innards which BRI and
RCEP did not. Keep China at bay at all costs. Of course, indiscriminate
relocation of industry will bring in pollution. China’s success in absorbing manufacturing
was at the cost of environmental pollution. We need to plan for pollution
mitigation from now itself.
Strategic Independence
The Concept. India
achieved Political Independence in 1947, Independence from Famine and Hunger
through the Green Revolution and Operation Flood and Economic Independence in
the 90s. However, Globalization and internal political issues did
not permit us to achieve strategic independence. The scene has changed with this Virus. The PM
has very clearly recognized this. His very mention of ‘Self Sufficiency’ shows the
strategic direction for the future. It is a big bang reform if initiated with
thought. The crux is that we need to attain ‘Self-Sufficiency’ through a degree
of internalization in those areas which will lead to India’s Strategic Independence.
Self sufficiency in these areas will also kick start areas of growth and
employment which we sorely need. If this internalization is meshed with Stabilization
and Decoupling derivatives, we will be well on our way. An elaboration of these
areas is needed.
Health. The current
situation has exposed India’s limitations in the Health sector despite being a Pharma
powerhouse. Our elite institutions have not come out with a single cogent study
in this period. We are still dependent on Oxford, Johns Hopkins and the likes
for our policy and responses. This must change. The number of Indian Doctors
and Health care professionals abroad is astounding. While we are proud of them,
there is scope to leverage that knowledge and influence to develop a healthcare
network in India based on research, diagnostics and services. We also need to
set up a robust API system independent of China. The employment and export potential
of this sector is humungous. We have the knowledge. Focused leveraging is
required.
Water. India is a water stressed nation (water
availability below 1500 m³ per capita). Large swathes of India face water
scarcity (below 1500 m³ per capita). Major cities are in absolute
water scarce situations (below 500 m³ per capita). We suffer extensively from water
borne diseases, groundwater depletion and contamination. We are heading towards
a major water crisis as per most estimates. If manufacturing is to relocate to India, we
will need more water. It also means greater industrial pollution. We have
enough water however we must manage our resources better. River water linking,
river and water body cleaning, conservation and regeneration schemes must be undertaken
rising above partisanship. This must be combined with pollution and contamination
prevention measures. Addressing water problems at a strategic level has huge
payoffs in employment, agriculture, health and almost everything. Water sufficiency
will be our lifeline. It needs life defining reform.
Energy. Our energy security is dependent on fossil
fuels. Today oil is dirt cheap. Tomorrow it will not be. Make aggressive moves
to secure long term strategic availability of oil. The opportunity is now. Tap
solar resources of which there is no lack in India. However the most important
element of our energy mix must be Thorium. Thorium reactors are safe. Beaches
in Kerala are full of thorium. India is the lead researcher of Thorium. We are already betting big on Thorium. We have
an experimental reactor going. Can we hasten it up? We will be in pole position
of energy if a balanced and holistic approach is adopted.
Data & Information. The PM says
data is the new gold. Why are we not using it like gold? As a nation we are
letting it to seed. As a people we are not conscious or aware of its strategic
importance. We need to leverage data and information with cyber technology,
machine learning, AI, Robotics and other disruptive technologies to become a knowledge-based
society. We have the potential to do so. The opportunity will open with Relocation.
The day we get a handle on information and data we will be a world power. The Virus
has demonstrated that to us. We are fighting this Virus based on the strength
of our data. Data driven solutions are the future.
Defense. Achieving
strategic independence in defense is a hydra headed problem. The Virus will reduce
defense expenditure drastically. Future conflicts will vary in form significantly.
Bio warfare will start figuring in discourse. Warfare will be more non-contact
and technocentric. Threat perceptions must be reworked afresh. A mass Army is no
more affordable. In a Zero-Sum Game, it is a mass (personnel) vs velocity (technology)
issue. Need to attain balance by reducing mass. Import of defense equipment must
stop. Period. The Armed Forces must stop being Prima Donnas and get their hands dirty
to get what they want. Learn how to modernize with contracting defense budgets. The
government on its part must enable the Armed Forces achieve self-sufficiency. Self-sufficiency
in defense will be the single most important constituent of strategic independence.
Conclusion
The world is on a cusp of change. So is
India. However while the world limps back to normalcy, India has the
opportunity for greatness. In fact in a way we should thank the Virus. It is
forcing us to behave with social consciousness. It is opening new pathways. Our ability to
come out on the top from a difficult situation should enthuse us. We need to
grasp this opportunity with both hands so that the poorest Indian has a better chance
for a brighter future. In this journey we have a
choice to take the easier route and be satisfied with crumbs which will come
our way. That will be a monumental and historic failure. The opportunity is not only to gain Strategic
Independence through self-sufficiency but to be able to take our rightful place
in the comity of nations whether it is in our immediate neighborhood, regional or international arenas. Can we do it? Yes, we can. Will we do it? That is the
Challenge.
More
than a decade back, I was listening to a Chinese Colonel talk. He was in fact a
negotiator of the Chinese Crisis Management organization specially sent to
impress and convince the NDC students on the importance and necessity of Sino
Indian Co-operation. He kept talking about how great a Sino Indian coupling
would be and the need for all of us to go on the same path. He said that it was unique in India that
limousines, buses, cycles, bullock carts and pedestrians were all using the
same road. How, even though the transportation means was different the path was
the same. He kept repeating this example every few minutes and said that China
and India were like that – on the same path. For some time I felt that it was odd
that he was repeating the same mundane example. Then it hit me. The fellow was
psyched that a bullock cart, a cycle, bus and a limo could travel on the same
road in India. It probably never happens in China. It was beyond his
comprehension. Yes sir. That is India’s strength. The ability to take everyone
on the same road to a common destiny despite huge diversity in languages,
cultures and religions. We will reach our destiny when we can help our weakest
member reach the destination safely. The world in general and in specific China
can keep wondering as to how this can happen. In the meantime let us get down
to doing it.
[2] https://www.dawn.com/news/1551861/mystery-of-indias-lower-death-rates-seems-to-defy-coronavirus-trend
Shanks well written. I believe that Indian herbs such as coriander, termuric and mint if used with hot water can be used as very effective prevention for corona. Though discrete videos on this are received as forwards, however no formal communication to this effect is received from any government or official body. Don't know why?
ReplyDeleteWell written
ReplyDeleteGreat to read we are well ahead of the curve .... encouraging and positive thoghts right thro! Thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe focus on strategic independence is well elicited with its merits and demerits in particular about the resources.
ReplyDeleteWhile enough of thought processes have been focused well in advance, the real challenge lies in implementing them into reality.
Government to focus and sleeve up on this direction at the earliest opportunity without any barriers as explained in the report.
WELL DONE SIR 👍